That was a beatdown.

The Patriots looked overmatched last night, particularly against the Seattle defense. There was plenty of chatter leading up to this game about New England’s cakewalk schedule during the regular season and their good fortune during the playoffs, and all of their weaknesses were exposed last night.

Drake Maye was terrible. Of course he was under pressure all night long, but he was also missing open receivers. Now, we all know he’s been hurt, so many will chalk this up to a sore shoulder. But this game must have been tough to watch for anyone who was banging the drum on Maye being the MVP.

As for the line, everyone is talking about Will Campbell this morning. The kid had a terrible night and could seem to block anyone, and we saw a flood of comments on social media from fans and draft experts with their “I told you so’s.”

Campbell is a fascinating case study as many questioned whether he was worth the #4 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. There was the question about his arm length and whether he could really be a left tackle in the NFL. In hindsight, Armand Membou would have been a much better pick, which many suggested at the time.

It also raises the issue of reaching for need when drafting in the top ten of the NFL draft. You should be looking at the next ten years, not a need for the next season, when you’re have a shot to get a true blue chip talent.

The other complication is Campbell’s health. He may not have been 100% after a knee injury, which led to the debacle in the Super Bowl.

The video above offers a fair review of some of the plays from the game. The kid clearly has issues, as he was getting pushed around on bull rushes as well which has nothing to do with arm length. Many are taking their shots at him, but I prefer seeing film study that actually tried to assess the performance fairly.

In any event, the Patriots had a hell of a run, but this team may be due for some serious regression next season.

May and Campbell are both young, so they both have a chance to learn from this and improve. But with Campbell, the Patriots will need to take a hard look as to whether he’s really a left tackle.

We were treated to a great Super Bowl last night. It featured the two best teams in the NFL fighting it out to the finish, with both quarterbacks delivering impressive performances. The penalty on the last drive was unfortunate because it prevented a final drive from Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to tie or win the game, but the holding call was probably correct. In the end, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to pull out a win over a tough Philadelphia Eagles team that came to play.

Point Spread

Going into the game, the Eagles were a 1.5 point favorite with the over/under at around 50. The game was very close and lived up to the billing of the two best teams in the NFL making it to the game. The Eagles were the sexy pick to cover, and the Patrick Mahomes injury was certainly a factor, but as we pointed out, the Eagles hadn’t faced a very tough schedule. Could their defense hold up against Mahomes if he was relatively healthy?

Chiefs Running Game

Andy Reid is known as an offensive genius, but he’s also known for abandoning the run too quickly at times. It’s hard to blame him when he has top quarterbacks like Mahomes and Donovan McNabb, but running the ball can be important at times. This was one of those times. The Eagles run defense isn’t very good, and they also have an excellent pass rush. Running the ball effectively would be crucial to take some pressure off of Mahomes and the offensive line, and Reid committed to the run, particularly in the second half.

Horrible Field Conditions

That said, the condition of the field may have also been a factor in slowing down the Eagles pass rush. They didn’t register a sack of Mahomes for the entire game, which few would have predicted. You can see Eagles defensive linemen slipping on a number of plays throughout the game, and that lack of pressure certainly helped a hobbled Mahomes.

Red Zone Calls

Reid, with the help of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, drew up two beautiful plays that gave the Chiefs critical touchdowns in the red zone. In two very similar plays against different Eagles defensive coverages, Kadarius Toney and then Skyy Moore went in motion towards the quarterback and then sharply revered course to the outside, completely faking out the Eagles defenders for wide open touchdowns.

Jalen Hurts Performance

While Patrick Mahomes put on a show and certainly deserved the Super Bowl MVP trophy, Hurts was magnificent in defeat. Some argued he should have won the MVP award even as the losing QB. It’s amazing how far Hurts has come as a passer, and he’s a lethal threat as a runner as well. He’s not as flashy as Lamar Jackson, but he’s become the player many thought Lamar could be. Unfortunately for Hurts and the Eagles, one mistake marred his performance. A fumble that resulted in a scoop and score TD for the Chiefs was a critical error in this close game, even if it was a fluke play.

The line in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs started with the Chiefs as a 2.5 point favorite, but that didn’t last long at all. Money flooded to Philly, and now we have the Eagles as a 1.5 point favorite over the Chiefs.

Why all the confidence in Philly? The Patrick Mahomes injury is the most obvious and persuasive answer. He was limited in the KC win over the Bengals, even if it wasn’t nearly as bad as some expected.

Also, the Eagles have romped in the playoffs with big wins over the Giants and 49ers.

Still, can we be that impressed with those performances? The Giants are not an elite team, and the 49ers played without a healthy quarterback. If you take a look at Philadelphia’s schedule, and then take a look at their performance against the few good quarterbacks they faced, it’s difficult to get too confident in their ability to stop Mahomes, even if he’s not 100%.

In an NFL postseason dominated by close games, the Super Bowl delivered another exciting finish as the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals with a touchdown drive to take the lead at the end of the game. The Bengals had a chance to tie the game with a little over a minute left, but Aaron Donald got to Joe Burrow on fourth down at midfield to end any chance for the Bengals.

While the ending was exciting, both offenses struggled for long stretches in the game. The Bengals couldn’t protect Joe Borrow, and the Rams struggled behind a head-scratching game plan by Sean McVay. Many of us knew the Bengals would have trouble blocking the Rams front, but we didn’t expect McVay to continue calling running plays on first down when it was clear the Bengals were stopping the run. It’s one thing to have a game plan based on Cincinnati struggles against the run, but it’s quite another to continue running the ball on first down when the Bengals were obviously keying on the run.

Matthew Stafford was excellent on the final drive, and that’s exactly what you expect from a top-tier quarterback. His no-look pass to Cupp was nothing short of sensational. Cupp was amazing during the game, including a critical fourth down conversion on a WR sweep that kept the last drive alive. He certainly deserved the Super Bowl MVP trophy, though Donald would have been a worthy choice as well.

Going into the game, we felt that the Bengals would come up short and we laid the 4.5 points. Of course that pick didn’t pan out. In many ways the Bengals were outplayed, and the Rams should have won comfortably. Of course that changed when the officials gifted the Bengals a 75-yard touchdown pass to start the second half when they missed a blatant facemask call on the DB. Can we call this a bad beat for that reason? Oh well . . .

The Bengals have been playing with fire all season long and it finally caught up to them in this game. Joe Burrow ranks among the highest sacked quarterbacks in NFL history, yet the Bengals were a few plays away from getting a Lombardi Trophy. In many ways they were fortunate as they played recklessly all year long. They’re risking the long-term health of one of the top, young quarterbacks in the NFL. Of course the Bengals could crow about their selection of Ja’Marr Chase instead of an offensive lineman in the 2021 NFL Draft, as Chase has emerged as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. But it was risky to not take a lineman, and they were lucky Burrow escaped this season without a major injury. Everyone knows they will address the line in the offseason, but there’s no guarantee this team will be back given the level of QB talent in the AFC.

One last thing about the game . . . the NBC crew of Chis Collinsworth and Al Michaels were an embarrassment in how they handled references to Odell Beckham, Jr. and his departure from Cleveland. Both are pros but they made ridiculously false characterizations of what happened. Beckham forced his way out of Cleveland, and the Browns did him a favor by releasing him in a way that let him pick his next team. Collinsworth and Michaels instead characterized it as Beckham being “cast aside” by the Browns. It was truly a pathetic performance.

The answer of course is yes . . . Joe Borrow can pull this off. The question is what are the chances he can pull it off and would you be willing to bet real dollars he can pull this off.

As you can see from the screen shot above from the Super Bowl media day interviews, Burrow has certainly been adding to his “Joe Cool” image. He’s confident bordering on cocky, and he gives all the right visual with the shades and cool demeanor. He’s already proven that he one of the best, if not the best, young quarterback in the NFL, and he can certainly add to his legacy with a win today in the Super Bowl.

The kid is incredibly talented. But he’s up against a Los Angeles Rams team that matches up very well against his Cincinnati Bengals, so we might be looking at a Dan Marino scenario where a brilliant young quarterback gets stifled by a superior football team in the Super Bowl. Burrow fans would hope that if this transpires that Joe will have more shots at the title unlike Marino who suffered for years trying to get back to the big dance.

The Rams are favored by 4.5 points, and many analysts wouldn’t be surprised to see a Rams blowout over the Bengals. That’s my biggest concern for betters going with Burrow and the Bengals.

One concern is the Rams defense. They have the front four that can win the battle against the weak offensive line of the Bengals. Then it’s a matter of scheme. Here’s one nugget:

His worst 4 games this year have come against teams running Fangio’s pre-snap 2 high scheme. Bears, Browns, Chargers, and Broncos all rank in the top 16 in pre-snap 2 high looks.

Who has the most snaps with this look? The Rams.

Then we have the issue of the Bengals defense. First, we have to give them props for an amazing performance against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Bengals dropped eight men into coverage and dared the Chiefs to run. That’s a tried and true approach against arrogant passing offenses and Mahomes and Andy Reid of course didn’t adjust. Don’t expect Sean McVay and the Rams to make the same mistake.

The Bengals have problems stopping the run, and McVay will make them pay for this deficiency. Here’s another nugget from betting guru Warren Sharp:

The Rams have played a BRUTAL schedule of run defenses

rank vs early-down RB-runs since wk 8:

#4 BAL wk 17
#1 SF wk 18
#14 ARI wk 19
#9 TB wk 20
#1 SF wk 21
—————
#32 CIN in the Super Bowl

He’s citing this stat as he makes his case to take Cam Akers and the over on rushing yardage prop bets, but this goes to the bigger point that the Bengals could have a very hard time stopping the run, and then of course the Rams will exploit that when it opens up the passing game.

The Bengals have had an impressive run to the Super Bowl, and Joe Burrow deserves all the accolades. But the Rams offer up a much bigger challenge. The Raiders were not a dominant team and the Bengals won a close game. Then the Bengals got the benefit of facing a Tennessee offense that imploded against them. Finally, while the Chiefs are an explosive machine, they are also capable of throwing games away with reckless play from Mahomes, and that’s exactly what the Bengals defense was able to force in the AFC championship game.

Now the Rams are far from perfect on offense. Matt Stafford has shown a propensity at times to throw bad interceptions, so turnovers can certainly derail the Rams. But other than that Stafford has been pretty impressive in the playoffs, and he’ll have many options against this Bengals defense assuming McVay goes with a balanced attack.

Overall this game has too many advantages for the Rams, so I would lay the points. So take a break from your usual enjoyments like playing poker online and look into bets for the big game.

The NFL playoffs kick off today with the Las Vegas Raiders visiting Cincinnati in the opening game. Playoff weekend extends through Monday night as the NFL pushes to continue its dominance on television and maximize ratings.

As we start the payoffs, NFL futures have the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs as the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl as you can see above. Both teams are playing great football and a matchup of these two squads would probably give us a great Super Bowl, though we all know the NFL playoffs rarely work out that way. This is what makes the NFL great.

Here’s a quick look at the NFL lines for the playoff games:

Las Vegas Raiders +6 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders come into this coming off a thrilling victory over the Chargers last Monday night to earn a playoff berth. It’s been a wild season for the Raiders, but Derek Carr has been able to step up when needed to make a big play. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is a superstar in the making in Cincinnati. The Bengals are not a great team, but their led by a great young quarterback who has excellent skill position players on offense. Burrow is a bit of a gunslinger, and the Bengals have a bit of a reckless style. Combine that with the hot and cold Raiders and you have a game that’s very hard to predict. Typically I would avoid a game like this, but it might be a decent bet to take the points.

New England Patriots +4½ at Buffalo Bills

The Patriots and Bills will meet for the third time this season and the weather is expected to be terrible again. This time it will likely feature bitter cold temperatures as New England arrives with rookie quarterback Mac Jones. It’s hard to go with a rookie quarterback in his first start, and Josh Allen should be able to take care of business for the Bills. But Allen is terribly inconsistent. He has incredible arm talent and he can beat you with his legs, but he also seems to lose his accuracy in key moments. I would avoid this game.

Philadelphia Eagles +9 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Give the Eagles credit; nobody expected them to make the playoffs. Jalen Hurts is limited as a quarterback, and perhaps he has a ceiling that never gets him to the Super Bowl, but the kid is a baller and gets the most out of his talent. One would expect the Bucs to take care of business here, but Hurts is a wild card.

San Francisco 49ers +3 Dallas Cowboys

Everybody seems to be picking the 49ers here, and this is certainly a dangerous team. This is a very tough draw for the Cowboys and a tough break given their impressive season. Dallas has been woefully inconsistent down the stretch, but the Cowboys have a well-balanced team that should be able to take care of business at home. Dak Prescott needs to show he can be a big-game quarterback and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rise to the challenge. I would lay the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers +13 Kansas City Chiefs

You have to give Big Ben and the Steelers credit for sneaking into the playoffs, but the Steelers are not a very good football team. The offense is very limited given that Ben mostly completes short passes. Their only prayer in this game would be to run the ball, have Ben complete some downfield prayers and hope that Kansas City turns the ball over. That’s all unlikely, however. The Chiefs should roll. I expect a blowout and this is my favorite bet of the weekend.

Arizona Cardinals +4 Los Angeles Rams

The pressure is on Matt Stafford in this game. Can he win a playoff game now that he’s in glittery LA? The Cards have been a mess down the stretch so this could be a good matchup for the Rams. I like laying the points here.

The line opened at Kansas City -3.5 and now has settled to Kansas City -3. The over/under is set at 56.5.

This game can go in so many different directions. The Chiefs are a scoring machine, but they’ve stumbled at times early in games. The Bucs are also inconsistent, but Brady has played well in this offense as the year progressed.

That said, Brady had a tough second half versus the Packers last week and it was the defense plus some bad coaching by the Packers that saved the day for the Bucs. Still, it’s always tough to bet against Brady.

I don’t feel strongly about this one at all, but if I had to bet it, or I was in Vegas for some fun, I’d go with the Chiefs -3 and the over.