A strong fantasy football team starts in the offseason. Savvy owners pay attention to free agency movement (and the draft) to identify those players who have seen an increase or a decrease in their stock with a change in zip code. Here are four big signings that will surely affect your fantasy draft this summer along with six additional moves to keep an eye on.
Michael Turner signs with the Falcons.
This is what fantasy owners everywhere have been waiting for. Quality running backs are at such a premium in fantasy football that watching one waste away on the bench behind LaDainian Tomlinson was tough to take. In four seasons, the former fifth round draft pick has totaled 1257 rushing yards on 228 carries for an impressive 5.5 yards per carry. He is also the owner of three of the Chargers’ 11 longest runs in history (83, 74 and 73 yards), which is why we call him Michael “The Burner” Turner.
Turner signed a contract believed to be in the neighborhood of six years and $35 million with $15 million guaranteed. Athough Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff said that Turner was brought in to complement third-year back Jerious Norwood, it’s hard to believe that they would spend that kind of money on a backup. I expect the split to be at least 50/50, but the more likely scenario has Turner getting the lion’s share (60-75%) of the carries. We’ll know more in August, but if Turner is in fact the lead back, his draft stock will rise into the second round. It would have been nice to see Turner go to a team where he would have no competition, but at least he’ll get the chance to step out of LT’s shadow.
Javon Walker signs with the Raiders.
Sure, Al Davis is losing his mind. He signed Walker, who was gimpy for much of last season, to a six-year contract worth $55 million. Other reports have the deal as a three-year, $27 million or a four-year, $35 million contract. Regardless, Walker isn’t worth that when he’s healthy, much less when his knee is still in question. But his contract won’t have much to do with his fantasy value in Oakland. He was a third round pick last summer, but his inability to stay healthy will definitely depress his stock. He also has to adjust to a new team and a new quarterback, presumably JaMarcus Russell. A solid training camp will probably put him in the fifth or sixth round.
On the flip side, Brandon Marshall has an opportunity to make another leap in Denver. However, the third-year wideout can’t get out of his own way; he recently had to undergo forearm surgery after crashing into a plasma television as he was wrestling with family members. Apparently, he severed a vein, nerve, artery and five muscle tendons. It probably wouldn’t be a big deal if he played another position, but anytime a wideout has problems with their arms or hands, it will raise a few eyebrows.
Julius Jones signs with the Seahawks.
This is more about the fall of Shaun Alexander than the rise of Julius Jones, though Jones does have a great opportunity with this change of venue. There was speculation that Seattle was going to draft a running back early this summer, but that seems less likely now. It’s clear that Alexander is on the way out, it’s just a matter of when. Fantasy owners would like to see him be released so that he gets another opportunity elsewhere. Alexander looked like a different back in 2007. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and he didn’t run with the same confidence or power as he had in years past. Or maybe the loss of Steve Hutchinson finally caught up to him. Regardless, if Jones can fend off Alexander, third-down back Maurice Morris and fellow newcomer T.J. Duckett, he could become a very valuable player to own. The air of uncertainty will probably put Jones’ draft stock in the fifth or sixth round.
D.J. Hackett signs with the Panthers.
All things considered, Carolina got a nice deal in Hackett. They signed the fifth-year receiver to a two-year, $3.5 million deal after Hackett missed most of the season with various injuries. In the six regular season and two postseason games he did play, he posted an average of 5.0 catches for 63 yards and 0.5 TD for the Seahawks, which projects to 80 catches for 1008 yards and eight TD over a full season. There are two big questions about Hackett that need to be answered. First, can he stay healthy? And secondly, can he succeed alongside Steve Smith in Carolina’s run-oriented attack? If he can stay healthy, I think 60-70 catches for 900-1100 yards is well within reach. Steve Smith gets tons of attention and Hackett should thrive on the opposite side.
Other moves that merit attention:
Bernard Berrian landed in Minnesota. He is an upgrade to the Vikings’ wide receiver corps as the team’s only credible threat last season was rookie Sydney Rice. Rice and Berrian make for a decent combo, but with Tarvaris Jackson under center neither player merits middle-round attention on draft day. At least not yet…Bryant Johnson is finally out of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin’s considerable shadows, and will get an opportunity to start in San Francisco. The problem is that the 49er passing game was pretty pathetic last season and there’s no guarantee that he and Alex Smith will click. Still, he’s a guy to keep an eye on during the preseason…Alge Crumpler signed with the Titans, where he’ll upgrade Tennessee’s anemic passing attack. He has struggled with injuries of late, but if he emerges from preseason relatively healthy, he’s one of those middle round tight ends that has a serious chance to finish in the top five…Donte Stallworth signed with Cleveland where he joins an already potent passing attack. He’ll have to fight Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow for targets, but could produce WR3 fantasy numbers if he can stay on the field. Stallworth’s health is always a question mark, but he has some upside and is worth a late round flyer…Jerry Porter is now a Jacksonville Jaguar. I don’t know how to feel about this move. Porter has burned many a fantasy owner in the past and the Jaguar passing game has been an afterthought since Jimmy Smith retired. Still, the guy is talented, so you never know…Speaking of former Jaguars, Ernest Wilford was supposed to be the next big thing in Jacksonville. Well, that didn’t happen and now he’s a Dolphin. Ted Ginn is the likely WR1, so Wilford will be fighting for scraps in Miami’s troubled passing game. I wouldn’t get too excited about Wilford unless he starts to light things up in August.
Photos courtesy of Flickr.
