Category: NBA (Page 553 of 595)

Miami 89, Detroit 78 (Heat lead series, 3-1)
The wake up calls keep coming, but Detroit’s phone is off the hook. The Pistons once again looked sluggish and out of sorts in Game 4 and are about to be bounced from the playoffs for the first time in three years. For three quarters, the Heat were the better team, silencing critics by sharing the ball offensively and playing solid team defense. Though their stats in Game 4 aren’t overly impressive, Pat Riley’s offseason acquisitions of Antoine Walker, Gary Payton and Jason Williams are paying dividends and it looks like all of last year’s manuvering will land the Heat in the NBA Finals. But the Heat are still led by Dwayne Wade and Shaquille O’Neal, who scored 31 and 21, respectively. Wade was particularly efficient offensively, shooting 73% from the field. In fact, he’s been on fire the entire series (69%). The Pistons might be able to bounce back, but this doesn’t look like the same Detroit team that we’re used to – on either end of the floor.

Dallas 95, Phoenix 88 (Mavs lead series, 2-1)
In Game 3, Dallas slowed the Suns down by playing disciplined offense and defense. By taking only good shots, the Mavericks limited the Suns’ runout ability, forcing them to execute in the half court offensively. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with 28 points and 17 rebounds, while Josh Howard chipped in 22 and 12. It appears that Avery Johnson’s adjustments made after the loss in Game 1 are paying off. It will be interesting to see what kind of boost that Phoenix will get from the return of Raja Bell – if he’s able to play in Game 4 on Tuesday.

Miami 98, Detroit 83 (Heat lead series, 2-1)
Going into the playoffs, I thought the Pistons were the cohesive team, but it’s Miami that’s looking more and more like a championship caliber squad. Once again, the dynamic duo led the Heat – Dwayne Wade scored 35 while Shaquille O’Neal went for 27/12 in the victory. The Heat shot an incredible 58% from the field while holding the Pistons to just 42%. Throw in a 40-27 rebound advantage for Miami and it all adds up to a win. Detroit looks fragmented and out of sorts and, frankly, I don’t think Flip Saunders has control of the team. He tried to pat Rasheed Wallace on the back as he came out of the game after picking up his second foul in the first half and Wallace reacted like Saunders had the avian flu. Chauncey Billups played a great game, scoring 31 on 11-17 shooting, but only had three assists in the loss. Miami went to the “Hack-a-Ben” in the fourth quarter, fouling Ben Wallace several times down the stretch, and the Defensive Player of the Year responded with 2-10 shooting from the charity stripe. Game 4 is really crucial for the Pistons – they do not want to go down 3-1 in the series. At the same time, the Heat don’t want to go back to Detroit tied 2-2, so expect a knock-down, drag-out fight on Monday.

Cap Situation

With Antonio Davis ($13.9 M) and Lamond Murray ($5.3 M) coming off the books, the Raptors have a payroll of $38.3 M, giving them roughly $14 M in cap space this summer. Chris Bosh had a stellar EPM of .628 – which was the 14th best in the league – is entering the last year of his rookie contract.

Charlie Villanueva is signed for three more years and his EPM of .480 (in his rookie year) was 90th in the league. He plays basically the same position as Bosh, but the two players have proven that they can be effective when they play together. Morris Peterson stepped up his game once Jalen Rose was traded, averaging 21 ppg after the All-Star break, but only shot 43% from the field for the season. His EPM of .404 (#174 in the league) is not awe-inspiring, but his $4.5 M salary makes him a good value.

Toronto’s short-term cap situation will hinge on what the team does with free agent Mike James, who averaged 21 points and six assists per game on a stellar 47% shooting. He was even better after the All-Star break – the guard averaged 25 points and seven assists in the final 28 games of the season.

Offseason Blueprint

The Raptors are on the clock.

Since former Phoenix executive Bryan Colangelo took over as the GM in Toronto, Bosh has indicated that he would like to re-sign with the Raptors. Colangelo’s intent seems to be to build the team in the mold of the Suns, and it appears that this idea appeals to Bosh. The team’s number one priority should be to sign Bosh to an extension, so the franchise might want to avoid spending a lot of money this summer if they want to stay under the cap in 2007-08, as he’ll command $14 M or more in annual salary.

Mike James had a terrific year, and his EPM of .509 was #10 in the league among point guards. The two knocks on James are his age (31 in June) and that he has a reputation of being a shoot-first point guard. Colangelo would like to find a pass-first point guard like Steve Nash. As a comparison, James’ shot-to-assist ratio was 2.7 compared to Nash’s 1.3. Those numbers are a little unfair due to the talent present on the Suns roster. James was leading a team with a lot less firepower and would have probably taken fewer shots and tallied more assists had the other perimeter players around him been more efficient shooters.

It would be unwise to sign James to a deal longer than three or four years, but he would be a good deal at an average of $6-$7 M for that span. The guard is an asset, so if the club is not sold on him, they should try to negotiate a sign-and-trade with another franchise to get something in return. James has expressed an interest in going to Houston – where he’d be a great fit – but the Rockets have already traded him away once (for Rafer Alston) so it’s unclear if he’s even wanted there.

Colangelo might have some trouble finding a pass-first point guard in free agency. Here are the shot-to-assist ratios of the top free agent point guards, with their EPMs in parenthesis:

Jason Terry – 3.6 (.429)
Sam Cassell – 2.3 (.514)
Speedy Claxton – 2.2 (.424)
Bobby Jackson – 3.9 (.386)
Marcus Banks – 2.1 (.402)

Given those numbers, Banks or Claxton might be a good option. Banks should also be the most affordable, while Claxton will probably expect a salary in the $4 M range.

The Raptors have the first pick in the draft, and the rumor mill has them selecting Andrea Bargnani, who basically plays the same position as Villanueva. They could package Villanueva in a trade with another player and try to coax Jamal Magloire from the Bucks. Magloire is a Toronto native, so he might be a good fit, although he doesn’t strike me as a player you’d acquire if you are trying to build a Suns-like team.

It’s going to take a year or three before Colangelo can make Toronto a winner again. I’m sure they regret not taking Andre Iguodala instead of Rafael Araujo in the 2004 draft, but their draft picks in 2003 and 2005 – Bosh and Villanueva, respectively – turned out pretty well, giving the franchise ammunition for improvement.

Notes:

Toronto’s EPM by player

Player EPM League Rank
Chris Bosh 0.628 # 14
Mike James 0.509 # 62
Charlie Villanueva 0.480 # 90
Loren Woods 0.472 # 98
Matt Bonner 0.409 # 168
Morris Peterson 0.404 # 174
Pape Sow 0.380 # 217
Jose Calderon 0.356 # 256
Joey Graham 0.351 # 263
Antonio Davis 0.308 # 299
Rafael Araujo 0.272 # 322

Dallas 105, Phoenix 98 (series tied, 1-1)
For Dallas fans, this “must-win” game was probably too close for comfort. But they had to take solace in the fact that it was Dirk Nowitzki – not Steve Nash – that was tearing it up offensively in the fourh quarter. Nowitzki – who has a tendency to be a little passive in crunch time – scored 12 of his game-high 30 points in the final quarter, hitting jumpers and attacking the rim when it mattered most. The Big German also led his team with 14 rebounds. Josh Howard – who hurt his ankle in Game 1 – wasn’t supposed to play, but ended up having a great night, posting 29 points and seven rebounds. Avery Johnson once again started Keith Van Horn, who continues to disappoint, but later inserted Dasagana Diop at center. Diop helped to cover Boris Diaw – who still had a big game (25 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) – but wasn’t able to score near the hoop as easily given Diop’s presence. Shawn Marion had another monster game for the Suns, 19 points, 19 boards and three steals. But Leandro Barbosa – who was filling in for Raja Bell – had an awful night, scoring only eight points on 3-15 shooting. In the end, Phoenix did what it wanted to do in the first two games – steal one – while Dallas did what it needed to do in Game 2. Game 3 is set for Sunday in Phoenix.