Category: NBA (Page 552 of 595)

Cap Situation

Minnesota is on the books for over $51 M for the next three years, headlined by Kevin Garnett’s contract, which still has three years/$66 M remaining. While this seems like an incredible amount, a closer look at the numbers reveals that Garnett’s contract is reasonable given his production. Garnett is the league’s most efficient player at 30.3 per game and .778 per minute. At a salary of $18 M for last season, his $/EFF of $7,816 wasn’t far off the league average of $7,070.

Ricky Davis is signed for two more years at an average of $6.6 M per. The team would be hard-pressed to replace his 19 points, five rebounds and five assists at a cheaper price – his EPM is a mediocre .425, probably because he plays so many minutes (41.2 per game). However, the team’s VP of basketball operations – Kevin McHale – said in April that he was “very disappointed” with Davis’ defense this season, and this is an area that Davis will need to improve if the Timberwolves hope to return to the playoffs.

Mark Blount (4 years/$28.2 M) isn’t especially productive, but he did put up 10 points and five boards for Minnesota. Five boards a game isn’t very many for a center, but there aren’t that many rebounds to be had when Garnett is clearing 13 per game.

The Timberwolves’ guard situation is in flux. Their best guard, Marcus Banks, who averaged 12 points and five assists after the Davis/Wally Szczerbiak trade brought him to Minnesota, is a free agent and the team needs to re-sign him or find a suitable replacement in the draft or free agency. After trading away Sam Cassell (and a protected first round pick) to the Clippers for Marko Jaric, the team basically gave up on him as a starter. Jaric wants to play point guard, but at 6’7” is more suited for the off-guard role. The team owes him $32.8 M over the next five years.

Of all the Timberwolves’ contracts, Troy Hudson’s is the worst. He is signed for four more years at the tune of $24.6 M. This is a guy who averaged 10 points and three assists, while shooting a miserable 38% from the field.

Offseason Blueprint

Garnett is 30 so the window is slowly closing on his opportunity for a title. The team has gone backwards over the last three years; after a 58-win season in 2004, the team won 44 games in 2005 and just 33 in 2006. This is cause for serious concern.

McHale hasn’t proven to be very good at his job. The Davis/Szczerbiak trade was just okay, while the Cassell/Jaric trade has blown up in his face. He hasn’t drafted very well, either. In 2005, he passed on Danny Granger in favor of Rashad McCants, whose defensive intensity has since been called into question. In 2003, he drafted Ndudi Ebi instead of Leandro Barbosa or Josh Howard. Of course, McHale’s Joe Smith debacle cost the franchise its picks in 2002 and 2004, putting the franchise in a bad situation.

Yet this man still has a job. And it’s my job to help him.

If the team isn’t committed to Jaric, they need to move him and try to acquire a second tier player in return. It would make sense to land Mike James or Jason Terry via a sign-and-trade, and Jaric is probably team’s best trade asset. Garnett is the ultimate teammate and needs shooters and scorers around him. Davis is a start, but James and Terry would help immensely. Marcus Banks could also be re-signed and dealt if the team doesn’t think he’s the long-term answer at point guard. Banks is young, but still shot 47% from the field, so I wouldn’t be that quick to get rid of him.

A lot of mock drafts are predicting that the team will take Rudy Gay with the #6 overall pick. I don’t think this team needs another soft player with a questionable heart. Brandon Roy, Randy Foye or Marcus Williams would make more sense. Landing Roy at #6 would be a steal. The team could also use another big, but it will be tough to land one in free agency considering the team’s cap situation.

It makes a lot of sense to pair Banks with Roy in the backcourt, with Davis, Garnett and Blount up front. The team could then use Jaric to get a backup front line player, allowing the defensive-minded Hassell to relieve Roy and Davis. If the team decides to let Banks go, they need to find a way to land Terry, James or another point guard capable of scoring.

Notes:

Minnesota’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Kevin Garnett 0.778 # 1
Eddie Griffin 0.439 # 131
Ricky Davis 0.425 # 144
Marcus Banks 0.402 # 180
Mark Blount 0.395 # 189
Rashad McCants 0.360 # 252
Anthony Carter 0.350 # 264
Marko Jaric 0.348 # 268
Troy Hudson 0.325 # 287
Trenton Hassell 0.279 # 315
Justin Reed 0.267 # 324
Mark Madsen 0.257 # 335

Garnett is content to let others shoot while he dominates just about every other facet of the game. The key is to find players who shoot a high percentage while also playing tough defense. If McHale is able to add one or two solid free agents along with a good draft pick, he might be able to get Minnesota back in the playoffs within a couple of years. For some reason, I’m not holding my breath.

It looks like the Toronto Raptors would like to exchange their #1 overall pick for a pick in the #5-#10 range along with another pick or a dependable veteran.

Two players that the Raptors will target in that area are UConn PG Marcus Williams and Washington SG Brandon Roy.

With the team’s strength in the front court with Chris Bosh and Charlie Villanueva, a bigman such as Lamarcus Aldridge or Italian Andrea Bargnani make less sense. Also factoring into the equation is the fact that this is not a great draft to have the top overall selection, so a team such as Toronto could add a talented piece (veteran player) through trade and pick up a player in the mid lotto area who could end up just as good as the top pick in the long run.

I get the feeling that Mike James won’t be playing for the Raptors next season.

John Nash, whose contract is set to expire in a month, won’t be back as Portland’s GM.

John Nash made his share of mistakes. With four first-round picks the past two years, his haul of Sebastian Telfair, Viktor Khryapa, Sergei Monia and Martell Webster left a lot to be desired — especially since Chris Paul could have been a Blazer. But Nash had his share of positive moves as well, including free-agent bargains Joel Przybilla, Steve Blake and Juan Dixon.

Unfortunately, those low-wattage additions were the only kinds of moves he could make because his hands were tied behind his back. With owner Paul Allen and team president Steve Patterson calling most of the shots, Nash was left to tinker around the edges. With such a muddled management structure, it’s no surprise that the Blazers sunk to the bottom of the NBA standings this season.

The team’s president, Steve Patterson, will serve as interim GM. The first thing he should do is read my offensive blueprint for the Blazers.

Phoenix 106, Dallas 86 (series tied, 2-2)
After dropping Game 1 at home, Dallas did what it needed to do in Game 3 – take back home court advantage. In Game 4, the Suns desperately needed a victory to avoid trailing 3-1 in the series, and with a win last night, they are tied, 2-2, heading back to Dallas. The game was closer than the final score would indcate. The Mavs trailed, 67-65, with 3:49 to play in the third quarter, but the Suns went on a 15-2 run over the next four and a half minutes to blow the game wide open. Raja Bell returned to the Phoenix lineup and gave the team an emotional lift, posting nine points, four rebounds and three assists in 30 minutes of play. More importantly, Bell’s return helped the Suns on the defensive end. Phoenix limited Dirk Nowitzki to just 11 points on 3-13 shooting, while the entire Dallas team shot just 42% from the floor. Bell’s presence in the starting lineup also put Leandro Barbosa back in his sixth man role, where he thrives. Barbosa led all scorers with 24 points on 10-13 shooting from the field. Expect the Suns to defend the same way in Game 5 – it’s up to the Mavs to make the appropriate adjustments offensively.

Cap Situation

With Al Harrington coming off the books this summer, the Hawks have a payroll of roughly $30 M, which gives the team around $22 M of cap space this offseason. Last summer, the Hawks traded away Boris Diaw and two (protected) first round draft picks to the Phoenix Suns for Joe Johnson in the sign-and-trade deal that landed Johnson a hefty five-year/$70 M contract. Given Diaw’s steadily improving play throughout in the season, this trade was not looking particularly good for the Hawks, but Johnson’s play after the All-Star break – 21 points, seven assists, four rebounds – comes close to justifying his big contract.

Last summers’ other regretful move was the franchise’s decision to pass on Chris Paul in favor of Marvin Williams in the draft. Paul ran away with Rookie of the Year honors and would have been a great fit for a team in desperate need of a point guard. Who knows, Williams may turn out to be the better player, but right now, with a team full of forwards, it’s hard not to second-guess that decision – I’m sure many in Atlanta are doing the same.

Zaza Pachulia was a good offseason signing and his 12 points and eight rebounds are a nice deal for his remaining contract (3-years/$12 M). The team also has Josh Childress and Josh Smith signed for two more years under their original rookie contracts, so there is some talent on Atlanta’s roster.

The franchise would have been in a better situation had they unloaded Al Harrington for a prospect at the point guard or post positions, or for an expiring contract and a first round draft pick. Everyone in the league knew that Harrington was leaving the Hawks this offseason – why not get something for him? As they learned from the Suns, the team could still find a way to parlay Harrington into a player and/or a pick by way of a sign-and-trade with a team without cap space.

Offseason Blueprint

Leaving the Hawks’ mistakes in the rear view mirror for the moment, this franchise basically needs to stand pat and wait for next summer’s free agent crop, when they’ll get more for their money. They could try to upgrade at point guard this summer, which would allow Johnson to play his natural position (off-guard). There are a number of guys available in the free agent pool, from the expensive (Jason Terry, Mike James, Sam Cassell) to the not-so-expensive (Speedy Claxton, Marcus Banks). The first three are scorers, while the latter duo prefer to set their teammates up.

Another rumor that’s going around is a possible sign-and-trade of Harrington for Allen Iverson. Iverson has 3-years/$60 M remaining on his contract, so Atlanta’s cap space would be gone for the foreseeable future. Harrington’s obviously not worth that kind of money, so the Hawks would have to throw in a few other players to make the numbers work, which might be tough to do, considering the disparity and the lack of big salaries on the Atlanta roster. If Philadelphia is interested in Harrington, the Hawks might be better off trying to pry Andre Iguodala (2-years/$5 M), John Salmons (restricted free agent) or even Samuel Dalembert (5-years/$52 M) from the Sixers. It’s true that Iguodala and Salmons are small forwards – not what the Hawks need right now – but they are good players.

Atlanta has the fifth pick in this year’s draft, where they should have an opportunity to draft a good guard, possibly Brandon Roy, Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. Any of those three should work well with Johnson in the backcourt. The team needs to avoid selecting a small forward unless they believe that the player is far and away the best player on the board.

Considering that the draft picks sent to Phoenix in the Johnson trade are lottery protected for a couple of years, the Hawks have some time to turn the team around before feeling the negative effects of that acquisition. Their best bet is to try to get a prospect for Harrington via a sign-and-trade deal and to get a guard in the draft. That way, they should still have enough cap room next summer to sign a star free agent, possibly putting the team back in the playoffs within three years.

Notes:

Atlanta’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Josh Smith 0.471 # 99
Al Harrington 0.467 # 102
Joe Johnson 0.467 # 103
Zaza Pachulia 0.457 # 115
Josh Childress 0.450 # 120
Tyronn Lue 0.411 # 164
Marvin Williams 0.382 # 214
Salim Stoudamire 0.348 # 269
Royal Ivey 0.288 # 310

Even with Harrington’s departure, the Hawks have four players in the Top 120 in Efficiency Per Minute plus the untapped potential of Marvin Williams. They lack a superstar, but if they don’t overpay for immediate help, they should have plenty of cap space to land a star next summer.