Category: NBA (Page 545 of 595)

Miami in ‘must-win’ situation

The Heat play at home tonight down 2-0 to the Mavs. In reality, if Dallas wins any of the three games in Miami, they’ll just need to win either Game 6 or Game 7 (both at home) to clinch the title. If Miami wants any chance of winning the series, they must win tonight. A loss would put them down 3-0 and their chances on life support.

Everyone wants to point to Shaq’s output – 22 points and 13 rebounds – in the first two games, and say that he’s to blame for Miami’s lackluster performance. The truth is, he’s 10-16 (63%) from the field and has passed pretty well out of the constant double-teams headed his way. His teammates just haven’t hit their shots. Taking out Shaq’s stats, the rest of the Heat have made a dismal 53 of 132 (40%) from the field and 12 of 37 (32%) from long range, compared to their season averages of 45% and 35%, respectively. Considering that the Mavs have shot 46% from the field and 38% from the line, the Heat aren’t getting it done on the defensive end either. However, Shaq should average more than 6.5 rpg and has yet to block a shot in the series, so he needs to do a better job defensively.

I expect the Heat to put forth maximum effort to try to get back into this series. If the Mavs get up by 10 or more, we might see a meltdown. The game is tonight at 9 PM (ET) on ABC.

Redick charged with DWI

J.J. Redick tried to avoid a checkpoint and was tagged by the fuzz.

Police set up a checkpoint at Lasalle and Kangaroo drives in Durham, when they say Redick, 21, made a U-turn to avoid the stop. Officers pulled him over at the Belmont apartment complex on McQueen Drive around 1 a.m.

The officer reported a strong smell of alcohol on Redick’s breath and described the former Duke player’s eyes as “very glassy” during the stop. Police charged Redic with driving under the influence and illegal use of highways.

Records indicate that Redick’s blood alcohol level was 0.11 when he was booked at the Durham County Jail early Tuesday. The legal limit for drivers in North Carolina is 0.08.

It’s interesting that Redick wasn’t pulled over for poor driving. Instead, he was pulled over for trying to avoid a DUI checkpoint. I’ve always found it strange that you can be charged with a DUI even if you are driving perfectly. Drunk driving isn’t cool, but there’s a fine line between being impaired and not being impaired.

This might raise character questions about Redick, but he got tagged for something millions of Americans (and most NBA GMs) have done at one time or another. Considering that his blood alcohol level was 0.11 (just off the old legal limit of 0.08) and not higher, I don’t think this will adversely affect his draft position. But to have a negative effect, all it takes is one GM – who would have otherwise drafted him – to pass on him.

Offseason Blueprint: Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas

Cap Situation

Counting the 5-year/$46 M extension that Caron Butler signed last offseason, the Wizards are on the books for around $56 M next season. Almost half of their payroll goes to two players, Antawn Jamison ($15.1 M) and Gilbert Arenas ($11.1 M). Arenas, who has the team’s best EPM (.572, #28 in the league) is signed for two more years at an average of $11.5 M per season. At that price, he’s a great deal. He’s one of the most prolific scorers in the league, upping his average for the fourth consecutive year to 29.3 ppg. With a shot-to-assist ratio of 3.5, he’s definitely a shoot-first point guard, but he still averaged a career-high six assists per game last season.

Arenas wasn’t the only player to step up his game with the departure of Larry Hughes last summer. Jamison averaged 20.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, which were above his career averages in both categories. With an EPM of .504, he’s not quite earning his salary, but his contract isn’t outlandish by any means.

Caron Butler was brought in (via the Kwame Brown trade) to replace Hughes and he had a career year, averaging 17.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, resulting in an EPM of .482. He’s only entering his fifth year, so he looks like he’s going to be a good deal for the duration of his contract.

The loss of Brown left a hole in the Wizards’ front line, but it was clear that he had worn out his welcome in Washington and needed a fresh start. Other than Jamison, three players got major minutes up front – Brendan Haywood (EPM=.438, $4.5 M), Jared Jeffries (.373, free agent) and Etan Thomas (.444, $5.9 M). None of these guys bring much to the table offensively, but they’re all decent defenders.

Antonio Daniels (.360, $5.4 M) is a talented combo guard who fills the backup role well. With a shot-to-assist ratio of 2.0, he’s more of a setup guy than Arenas. His three point shooting (23%) and overall shooting (42%) leave something to be desired, but the rest of his game is pretty solid.

Offseason Blueprint

Sadly, Washington doesn’t have a lot of options to improve their frontcourt. They were able to unload Brown last season and the team might try to do the same with Etan Thomas. Only he doesn’t have the kind of potential that Brown had, so the team might have a tough time finding a taker.

Since they are over the cap, they only have the mid-level exception to work with. With Arenas, Butler and Jamison hoisting most of the shots, the team could use defensive-minded players at shooting guard, power forward and center. Power forward Reggie Evans is a possibility, as is swingman John Salmons. Jared Jeffries has the option for another year, but will likely test the waters. His defense against LeBron James in the playoffs raised a few eyebrows around the league, but he wasn’t terribly efficient offensively and is not good at the free throw line.

The team has the #18 pick and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shawne Williams, who is listed as a small forward in the NBA. Considering that Jamison is a little undersized for power forward, I’m not sure why the Wizards would take another small forward when they already have Jamison and Butler on the roster. Ronnie Brewer would be a good fit if available, while Hilton Armstrong might do well up front.

Other than the mid-level exception and the draft, the Wizards don’t have the ammo to make a big improvement unless they want to trade Jamison or Butler away. Considering his production and salary, Arenas is basically untouchable at this point. Washington took Cleveland to seven games in the playoffs and the Cavs went on to take the Pistons to seven, so the Wizards aren’t that far off the elite in the East. A couple of moves to improve their defense might put them over the top.

Notes:

Washington’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Gilbert Arenas 0.572 # 28
Antawn Jamison 0.504 # 68
Caron Butler 0.482 # 87
Etan Thomas 0.444 # 127
Brendan Haywood 0.438 # 133
Jared Jeffries 0.373 # 230
Antonio Daniels 0.360 # 251
Jarvis Hayes 0.354 # 259
Michael Ruffin 0.345 # 271

Arenas, Jamison and Butler can handle most of the offensive load, but who is going to play defense on this roster? Jeffries is good, but he’s a free agent. The team needs better play out of Thomas and Haywood if they want to take it to the next level.

Couch Potato Alert

This is a big week for sports with the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup and World Cup continuing this week. The U.S. Open starts on Thursday.

NBA
Tues, 9 PM: Dallas @ Miami – ABC
Thurs, 9 PM: Dallas @ Miami – ABC

MLB
Mon, 7:05 PM: Chicago White Sox @ Texas – ESPN
Wed, 12:35 PM: Milwaukee @ Cincinnati – ESPN
Wed, 7:05 PM: NY Mets @ Philadelphia – ESPN
Thurs, 8:10 PM: Boston @ Minnesota – ESPN2

NHL
Mon, 8 PM: Carolina @ Edmonton – NBC
Wed, 8 PM: Edmonton @ Carolina – NBC

World Cup
Click here for complete schedule.

Golf
Thurs-Sun: U.S. Open – NBC

Offseason Blueprint: Indiana Pacers

Cap Situation

Despite the expiration of the Reggie Miller ($6.1 M) and Scott Pollard ($6.3 M) contracts, the team is still on the hook for $69.6 M next season. The bulk of that payroll goes to the team’s best player, Jermaine O’Neal, who is set to make an average of $20.6 M over the next four seasons. O’Neal is a very talented player and, with an EPM of .607, he would be able to earn this contract – if he could only stay on the court. He has only played 95 games over the last two seasons.

The team’s next best players – Peja Stojakovic (EPM of .460) and Danny Granger (.461) – play basically the same position. Stojakovic came over in the trade that sent Ron Artest to Sacramento. He’s a 29 year-old free agent, so it’s unclear how much he’s worth at this point in his career, especially when there’s another talented small forward on the roster. Stojakovic is too big to play shooting guard, so there is a bit of a logjam at the position.

The team will get some cap relief next season when the contracts of Austin Croshere ($9.6 M, .480) and Jonathan Bender ($7.8 M) come off the books. Croshere was pretty productive in the minutes he received, but he’s only earning half of his salary. Bender is a particularly sore spot for the franchise. He was forced to retire after being unable to recover from a series of knee injuries.

Jamaal Tinsley is signed for five more years at the cost of $34 M, which is pretty pricey considering his EPM (.373) and his inability to stay healthy. The point guard has averaged only 45 games played in the last three seasons. Considering that he’s been outplayed by his backup, journeyman Anthony Johnson (EPM=.395, $2.6 M), Tinsley isn’t looking like a very good deal right now. The team’s other point guard, Sarunas Jasikevicius, is signed for two more years at the cost of $8 M, and needs to improve his shooting from last year’s dismal 40%.

Stephen Jackson has four years and $28 M left on his contract, and while he’s a pretty good scorer (16.4 ppg), his shooting percentage (41%) drags down his EPM to a less than mediocre .365. Jeff Foster’s EPM (.521) is good, mostly due to his hefty 9.2 rpg average in only 25.1 minutes per game, yielding a league-best .363 rebounds per minute. He has three years and $17 M remaining on his contract, which isn’t outrageous considering the price of centers these days.

Offseason Blueprint

I doubt that the Pacers will let an asset like Stojakovic get away without any compensation. That would mean that the team got zilch for Ron Artest. Look for the team to re-sign him and either trade him right away or wait and see how the team does over the first half of the season. Stojakovic has an option to extend his current contract one more year at $8.2 M, but he is expected to opt-out and have an asking price of over $10 M per season.

With O’Neal, Stojakovic and Granger, the team has considerable strength at the forward positions. The focus this offseason should be to improve guard and center play. Since the team is $18 M over the projected cap, they do not have the flexibility required to add a premier free agent. However, they could use their mid-level exception to land Speedy Claxton and then try to move Tinsley for some help in the frontcourt or at shooting guard.
The team has the #17 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shannon Brown out of Michigan State. The team should pick a shooting guard or a center, unless they feel that the best player on the board surpasses the available players at those positions. Patrick O’Bryant is projected to go much earlier, but if he slips or the Pacers are able to move up, in a couple of years a frontcourt of O’Neal and O’Bryant could be very O’Tough.

The other option is to trade O’Neal while his value is still high. The team could get a high draft pick, but it would be a challenge to get the salaries to match.

Notes:

Indiana’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Jermaine O’Neal 0.607 # 18
Jeff Foster 0.521 # 53
Austin Croshere 0.480 # 89
Danny Granger 0.461 # 109
Peja Stojakovic 0.460 # 111
Scot Pollard 0.453 # 118
David Harrison 0.412 # 162
Anthony Johnson 0.395 # 190
Sarunas Jasikevicius 0.375 # 224
Jamaal Tinsley 0.373 # 231
Stephen Jackson 0.365 # 246
Fred Jones 0.315 # 294

The Pacers are in a tough spot. They could probably retool and make the playoffs the next few years, but they have no real shot of contending unless they are able to add an impact player or two. On the other hand, they could also blow the team up and start the rebuilding process sooner rather than later.

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