Miami 98, Dallas 74 (series tied, 2-2)
Flashing back to the middle of the third quarter of Game 3, with the Mavericks up 13, had you told me that the series would be tied 2-2 by Thursday night, I would have told you that you were nuts. But here we are, on Thursday night, and the series is tied. Dwayne Wade shrugged off a sore knee to score 36 points on 13-23 shooting, while Shaq posted 17 points and 13 rebounds. The Mavericks played awful, shooting a miserable 32% from the field and 3-22 (14%) from long range. Game 5 is pivotal. If the Heat can hold serve, the pressure is back on the Mavs to win two straight at home. If the Mavs can bounce back and win Game 5, they’ll just have to win one of two at home to win the title. One thing’s for certain: the momentum has definitely shifted in Miami’s favor.
Category: NBA (Page 544 of 595)
Here’s a little bit of injury news that was lost in the Heat’s victory Tuesday night.
Before they wheeled him away on the back of a cart, Dwyane Wade grabbed both handrails to steady himself as he climbed up the stairs to the interview podium.
When he finished speaking, he limped away — although calling it a limp would actually be understating things about as much as anyone could understate them.
Put it this way: Wade could barely walk Wednesday, a day after Shaquille O’Neal took a charge, fell backward and rolled into Wade’s left knee, buckling it.
That’s right, he could barely walk.
“It’s very stiff and very sore,” Wade said. “So the only thing I can continue to do is what I’m ordered to do, and that’s a lot of icing and [stimulation] all day. I’m confident in my training staff that they’ll get me as close as I can be to 100 percent by tomorrow night.
“So, you know, I’m hoping.”
Shaq has been trying to take charges throughout the playoffs and I’m not exactly sure why, though I suppose he’s trying to avoid foul trouble. He’s not the shot blocker he once was but he can still change shots. A 330+ pound man trying to draw a charge forces the ref to make a call and it usually goes against Shaq. Here’s a case of Shaq trying to do something he’s not very good at, and as he’s doing it, he lands on Dwayne Wade’s knee. That’s just great.
Cap Situation
Counting Andre Miller’s $8.7 M salary, the Nuggets are on the books for around $52 M next season, giving the team precious little cap space this summer. Carmelo Anthony, with his EPM of .575, is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Anthony elevated his game last season, averaging 26.5 points while upping his FG% from 43% to 48%, becoming one of the premier scorers in the league.
The talented front line of Anthony, Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin, hasn’t worked out as well as planned. Camby’s been terrific (EPM=.689, #8 in the league) when he’s been healthy, but the oft-injured center missed 26 games last season with finger, knee and back injuries. He’s pretty slight (230 lbs.) for a center, so maybe that’s why he gets dinged up so much. He has 4-years/$32 M remaining on his contract, which is still a decent deal even with the missed games.
Martin has been a disappointment for the Nuggets. After averaging 17 points and nine rebounds in his final season for the Nets, his averages dipped to 15/7 and 13/6 the last two seasons with the Nuggets. He’s still quite effective (.532) when he plays, but like Camby, he missed 26 games with a sore knee. To complicate matters, he’s got 4-years/$54 M remaining on his contract, and he was suspended during the playoffs over a dispute with head coach George Karl. Karl has since said he was willing to mend fences, but the two haven’t spoken since the Nuggets were eliminated from the first round of the playoffs.
Andre Miller has 3-years/$28 M remaining on his contract, and with an EPM of .489, that’s not a bad deal. He’s on the wrong side of 30, but his game doesn’t rely on speed, so he should continue to be effective for the remainder of his contract. The Nuggets don’t really have a shooting guard, so the team often plays Miller alongside Earl Boykins (.404, $2.9 M). It’s not ideal, but the two play pretty well together.
Ruben Patterson (.409) still has a year remaining on his contract, but will have a tough time justifying the $7.8 M he will make next season. After his contract comes off the books, the team will have lots of cap space next summer and they’ll need it to re-sign Anthony.
Offseason Blueprint
Martin is the big question mark this offseason. If he’s able to get back to his 17/9 form, it would be worthwhile to keep him. But one wonders if his relationship with Karl and the rest of the franchise is beyond repair. In that case, they’ll need to find a suitor for his $54 M contract. Rumor has it that the Knicks are interested. (Big surprise.) The Nuggets have liked Steve Francis for some time, so maybe a Martin for Francis swap would be a good idea. The salaries don’t exactly match, so the Nuggets would have to send another minor player (Eduardo Najera?) off in the deal.
Nene (Hilario) is a free agent this offseason, but it’s unclear how much the big Brazilian is worth since he missed the entire season with a knee injury. He’s a career 11/6 type, but he’s only 23 and should improve, so if he comes back strong, he’ll make whatever team signs him very happy. It might behoove the Nuggets to move Camby to power forward and run a re-signed Nene at center.
Reggie Evans is also a free agent. He’s second in the league in rebounds per minute (.361) and his EPM (.462) makes him worthy of mid-level (~$5 M) money. He’s not much of an offensive threat, so he’d work well in a starting lineup full of stars or in a bench role.
Denver does not have a first round draft pick this season. They traded it away to New Jersey in the Martin trade. It has changed hands a couple of times since then, and is now in the hands of the Knicks.
With a shot-to-assist ratio of 1.3, Andre Miller is a pass-first point guard, so a lineup of Miller, Francis, Anthony, Camby and Nene, might work well. Taking on Francis’ contract would mean more debt now, but Francis’ contract only goes another three years while Martin is signed for five. It all depends on how much the Nuggets want to spend in the short-term.
Notes:
Denver’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Marcus Camby 0.689 # 8
Carmelo Anthony 0.575 # 26
Kenyon Martin 0.532 # 47
Andre Miller 0.489 # 81
Reggie Evans 0.462 # 108
Ruben Patterson 0.409 # 169
Earl Boykins 0.404 # 175
Francisco Elson 0.389 # 200
Eduardo Najera 0.385 # 211
Greg Buckner 0.361 # 249
Dermarr Johnson 0.355 # 257
Howard Eisley 0.310 # 297
The team should try to build around Camby, Anthony and Miller, who are all good deals at their position. Adding Steve Francis, a healthy Nene and maybe another free agent (Evans or someone similar) could give the Nuggets a formidable lineup. With any luck, Denver will win their division again next season.
Cap Situation
The Kings are on the books for $55 M heading into next season. The team doesn’t have any really egregious contracts on the roster, so most of the guys are earning their paychecks.
Mike Bibby has 3-years/$40.5 M remaining on his contract, and with an EPM of .461, he’s not far off the league average for $/EFF. Still, the team should try to use him as more of a distributor and allow him to be a little choosier in his shot selection. His 43% shooting and 5.4 assists per game are way off his career highs of 47% and 8.4 assists, respectively. He’s only 28, so he’ll be effective through the remainder of his contract.
Ron Artest is signed for two more years at an average cost of $7.5 per season. This is a terrific value for what Artest does on the floor. His EPM (.403) is surprisingly low, but that number doesn’t take into account the defensive toughness that he brings to the team. The most disturbing thing about Artest’s year was his dismal 38% shooting from the field. He took five three-pointers per game for the Kings, which is far too many considering his 31% career accuracy from behind the arc. Artest should be the team’s main low post threat – he should be able to bully most swingmen on the block.
Brad Miller owns the team’s second biggest contract, which has four-years and $44 M remaining. This isn’t a bad deal considering his EPM (.552, #6 among centers) and the contracts doled out to Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert last offseason. Miller turned 30 this April, but his game shouldn’t fall off as quickly as some others in the league. He doesn’t lean on his athleticism, so he should be effective throughout most of his contract.
The Kings have two good power forwards. Shareef Abdur-Rahim (EPM=.519) has four years and $24 M remaining on his contract. Kenny Thomas (.499) is signed for another four years at a total cost of $30.5 M, and is especially valuable considering that Abdur-Rahim isn’t the most durable player.
The team will get some cap relief after next summer, when the contracts of Corliss Williamson ($6.5 M) and Vitaly Potapenko ($3.3 M) come off the books. The team’s best prospect, Kevin Martin, has two more years remaining on his rookie contract at the total cost of $2.8 M, a good deal considering his encouraging EPM (.418).
Offseason Blueprint
The big decision this summer is whether or not to re-sign free agent Bonzi Wells. Wells is turning 30 this fall and is a career 13/5 type of guy, though he averaged 14/8 for the Kings this season. Wells had a HUGE playoff series against the Spurs, averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds on 61% shooting. When motivated – like this year, a contract season – Wells is a poor man’s Charles Barkley (EPM=.507), rebounding like crazy for a guy who is just 6’5”, and he’s a load for swingmen to handle on the block. That said, I wouldn’t reward him with a fat contract this summer. He’s always been considered a bit of a malcontent and it would be safer to keep him away from Artest in the long term. It seems like a franchise can get by with one malcontent, but there aren’t room for two on a team. The team’s best bet would be to try to coordinate a sign-and-trade for a good, young prospect or a first round draft pick. Considering that most teams are over the cap, the Kings shouldn’t have trouble finding a taker.
Despite the fact that the team went 26-14 after the Artest trade, which projects to a 53-win season, the Maloof brothers fired head coach Rick Adelman in favor of Eric Musselman, an energetic basketball-nut. The Maloofs reportedly found Adelman too aloof and wanted a better relationship with their head coach.
The team is not far away from contending for a title. They gave the Spurs all that they could handle in the first round and appear to be a franchise on the rise. The Kings have a lot of experience, but their core group is approaching 30 if not already that age, so the team has a 2-3 year window to make it happen. Considering that Artest has said that he wants to head east after his contract is up in two seasons, the clock is definitely ticking.
If they keep Wells, they are rolling the dice that he, Artest and Musselman can all co-exist. I’d opt for a younger, combo guard, one that would compliment Kevin Martin and Mike Bibby. The team could use its mid-level exception to try to wrest John Salmons from Philadelphia, or try to acquire such a player via a Wells trade.
The team has the #19 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take Spanish guard Sergio Rodriguez, who has been compared to Jason Williams. This might not be the best idea. Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, Mardy Collins, Maurice Ager or Quincy Douby might be better options.
The team needs to sign-and-trade Wells looking for a good, young combo guard or swingman to come off the bench. They could also use a good post player. Wells’ game fits these needs, but I just think he and Artest, combined, are a bomb waiting to explode. A good offseason along with a successful implementation of Musselman and his offense could vault the Kings towards the top of the West.
There is one trade rumor that has been gaining momentum since the Orlando pre-draft camp. The Kings would trade Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas and a re-signed Bonzi Wells, along with whomever Minnesota wants the Kings to draft at #19 for Kevin Garnett. This would leave the Kings with a core of Bibby, Artest and Garnett. If Sacramento could pull this trade off and fill in the gaps elsewhere, they’d be an immediate contender in the West.
Notes:
Sacramento’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Brad Miller 0.552 # 37
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 0.519 # 56
Bonzi Wells 0.507 # 65
Kenny Thomas 0.499 # 74
Mike Bibby 0.461 # 110
Kevin Martin 0.418 # 151
Ron Artest 0.403 # 179
Francisco Garcia 0.348 # 266
Vitaly Potapenko 0.299 # 304
Jason Hart 0.244 # 344
Wells is the biggest offseason decision for the franchise. Otherwise, if Musselman works out, the team is poised for a 2-3 year run as one of the elite teams in the West.
Miami 98, Dallas 96 (Mavs lead series, 2-1)
The Miami Heat overcame a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter and stole Game 3, keeping their title hopes alive in the process. Dwayne Wade had a huge game, scoring 42 points while grabbing 13 rebounds. Shaquille O’Neal was productive in his 37 minutes, tallying 16 points, 11 rebounds and five assists. It looked like Dallas’ speed was going to wear down the Heat once again, but the Mavs put it in cruise control too early, allowing Miami to fight back in the waning moments of the game to get the win. With Dirk Nowitzki on the line with two free throws to tie it up late in the fourth, it looked like the game was headed to overtime. But Nowitzki missed the second attempt and Miami survived to fight another day. The Mavs still have the advantage in the series, up 2-1 with home court advantage, but they need to at least play well in Game 4. They don’t have to win, but if Miami blows them out, it will give the Heat the confidence they need to win Game 5. Dallas needs to focus on what they came to Miami to do – win one game. If they live in the present, that goal is still attainable. If they get bogged down by what went wrong in Game 3, then they might get in their own kitchens, and that’s never a good thing.
Note: I didn’t like the play that the Mavs ran with a second to play. I don’t know why you would have your best offensive player taking the ball out of bounds without time to pass the ball back to him. If anything, use Nowitzki as a decoy, but don’t have him take the ball out of bounds, effectively eliminating him from the play.
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