Category: NBA (Page 539 of 595)

Cap Situation

Pat Riley took a lot of grief for his roster moves in the offseason, but everything worked out in the end, as he and his band of mercenaries won Miami’s first NBA title. Considering they won a ring, I doubt the team will make major changes in the offseason, and with a payroll of over $62 M, they don’t have a ton of options.

Shaquille O’Neal’s contract runs another four years at $20 M per season. Shaq battled some injuries this season, but still put forth the league’s 11th best EPM (.678), third best amongst centers. Time has taken its toll on O’Neal; he averaged career lows in points (20.0) and rebounds (9.2). But his 60% FG shooting was tremendous, and as long as he’s playing, he affects the game like no other player in the league, making him well worth the price.

Dwayne Wade is entering the final year of his rookie contract at the unbelievably low price of $3.8 M. For a guy with an EPM of .698 – #6 in the league – this is a tremendous value. While rumors flew during the playoffs that he may keep his options open, you can expect Miami to try to sign him to a max extension this summer. After winning a title this season, I bet he’ll sign a deal that will keep him Miami for the next seven seasons.

Jason Williams’ contract runs two more seasons for more than $17 M. Williams only played 59 games this season and will have offseason knee surgery; he needs to return a more productive player (EPM=.406) in order to earn that big contract.

Antoine Walker’s deal lasts three more years at a total cost of almost $26 M. His EPM (.435) is average, so I’m sure the team would like to see him contribute a little more when he’s on the court. Still, Walker gave the Heat a valuable third scoring option to take some of the pressure off of O’Neal and Wade.

Udonis Haslem has four years remaining on his contract, which has a total price of more than $24 M. Haslem is a pretty good deal for the Heat, providing an above average EPM (.458) for a reasonable price. Plus, he pretty much earned his entire contract with his gritty defense on Dirk Nowitzki during the Finals.

Offseason Blueprint

The team should try to convince Alonzo Mourning to return for another season or two. Zo’s EPM (.590) was the 20th best in the league, 5th best amongst centers, giving the Heat a reliable backup to Shaq. Mourning may want a raise from the $1.1 M he made last season, and the Heat should consider it. It will be interesting to see what motivates Mourning now that he’s won a ring – will it be money or more titles? Only time will tell.

Gary Payton is also a free agent, but he should probably go ahead and retire. He’s a shell of the player he once was, but his legacy is in tact, as he made his mark with two huge shots in the Finals. He made an impact and won a ring – that should probably be enough. But Payton has indicated that he wants to play another season and will be content if the team brings in another point guard for him to help to develop.

With Wade, Walker, Haslem and Shaq, the team’s biggest need is at point guard. There are a couple of quality point guards – Speedy Claxton and Marcus Banks – that could be had for the mid-level exception. I think either guy would be an upgrade over Jason Williams.

Miami’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dwyane Wade 0.698 # 6
Shaquille O’Neal 0.678 # 11
Alonzo Mourning 0.590 # 20
Udonis Haslem 0.458 # 112
Antoine Walker 0.435 # 135
Jason Williams 0.406 # 172
Michael Doleac 0.369 # 238
James Posey 0.344 # 273
Derek Anderson 0.339 # 276
Gary Payton 0.326 # 285
Jason Kapono 0.303 # 300
Shandon Anderson 0.248 # 338

The team doesn’t have a pick in the first round of the draft, so if they want an impact player they’ll have to find one with the mid-level or via a trade. I doubt Riley will mess with the chemistry that won the franchise its first NBA title, but you never know. I’d go grab Banks or Claxton and re-sign Mourning (and James Posey, if he doesn’t exercise his player option), but other than that, I’d stand pat.

Gilbert Arenas is signed for two more years and has a player option for a third. But the Wizards guard might bolt in the summer of 2008 if he doesn’t feel that Washington is in a position to compete for a championship.

“That is what I play this game for,” Arenas said. “Ninety-five percent of the players in this league want to win a championship more than anything else. I won’t be happy just making it to the playoffs every year and that’s it. I want to compete for a championship in my young years.”

The Wizards generally are considered a good team, though one with significant defensive shortcomings. But unless they upgrade at a few positions — especially in the frontcourt — the Wizards could be stuck in a situation similar to the one in which they found themselves in in the 2005-06 season: barely making the playoffs.

Arenas also has indicated he would be disappointed if coach Eddie Jordan does not receive a contract extension. Jordan is in the final year of his contract. “I’ll even say, if he’s not here I don’t want to be here,” Arenas said after the playoff loss to Cleveland. “I’ll even go that far. That’s how badly I want him here.”

Failing to keep Arenas would be nothing short of disastrous.

It’s good to see that Arenas is more concerned with a title than he is with money. That’s all well and good, but the true test is – will he take less money in order to put his team in a better financial situation? Most players talk about the title, but they want the fat contract first. Then they worry about their legacy.

In my Offseason Blueprint for the Wizards, I outlined some of the options the team has to improve its personnel.

Cap Situation

With Keith Van Horn’s $15.7 M salary finally coming off the books, the Mavs have committed to a payroll of just over $74 M next season. Just like the Knicks, the team continues to spend a ton of money, but with 60 wins this season, owner Mark Cuban has much more to show for it.

Dirk Nowitzki’s increasing aggressiveness is one of the main reasons for the Mavs’ improvement this season. At .718, he had the league’s 4th best EPM, making him a good deal at the cost of $15.1 M next season. He has a player option for the following year, but I’m guessing he and Cuban will work out an extension keeping Nowitzki in Dallas for the foreseeable future as the Mavs would be hard pressed to replace his 26.6 points and 9.0 rebounds. Throw in his 48% shooting percentage (41% from long range) and it’s easy to see why Nowitzki is one of the game’s best offensive players.

Dallas’ second best player is Josh Howard, who really came on in his third year. Howard was a great draft pick for the Mavs, who got the former Wake Forest star with the #29 pick in the 2003 draft. Howard can score (15.6 ppg), rebound (6.3 rpg), and shoots the ball at a 47% clip, 43% from long range. He has one more year on his rookie contract ($1.6 M) and the Mavs would be smart to work out an extension this summer.

Michael Finley is still collecting checks from Cuban, and is set to make almost $36 M over the next two seasons. He was released as part of the amnesty clause of the newly signed Collective Bargaining Agreement, so he still gets paid by the Mavs even though he’s playing for the Spurs.

Erick Dampier will make $50 M over the next five seasons, which is a lot to pay for a guy with the #21 EPM (.474) amongst centers. Head coach Avery Johnson actually went to Dasagana Diop more in the playoffs, so if that trend continues, Dampier’s contract is going to be especially regretful in the coming years.

Jerry Stackhouse has one more year remaining on his contract at the price of $8 M. Stackhouse has been coming off the bench during his stint in Dallas and his shooting percentage is still hovering around 40%. The team won’t have to make a decision on his future until next summer, but signing him to any long-term deal would be a bad idea. After seeing Jerry’s questionable decision-making in the playoffs, I wouldn’t trust him in the game in crunch time.

Marquis Daniels has three years remaining on his contract at the tune of $19 M. Daniels logged 28.5 minutes per game during the regular season, mostly due to injuries to players in front of him, but only played 11.1 minutes in the playoffs. His EPM (.396) isn’t impressive, but I’m guessing more than a few teams would like to give him more minutes than he’s getting in Dallas. Since he seems to be buried on the bench when everyone’s healthy, he might be living in a different zip code sooner rather than later.

Devin Harris has two more years on his rookie deal for a total price of $7 M. He was actually more productive (EPM=.439) than the guy starting ahead of him (Jason Terry, EPM=.429). He had some great games in the playoffs but wasn’t given the minutes to find any consistency. If he develops a consistent jumper, he will be deadly.

Offseason Blueprint

Just like the Clippers (with Sam Cassell and Shaun Livingston), the Mavs have a free agent point guard, Jason Terry, who is playing ahead of a promising youngster. Cuban has indicated that he wants to re-sign Terry, but I think paying the guard anything more than $8 M a season (for no more than four years) would be a mistake. Terry has a reputation for being a clutch player, and he has hit some big shots, but he went 1-12 in the second half of Game 6 when the Mavs desperately needed a second scorer to take the pressure off of Nowitzki.

One strategy might be to re-sign Terry for 3-4 years in the hopes of keeping Harris’ value down until it’s time to sign him to an extension. But my guess is Terry is looking to sign for an average of $10 M a season for at least four years and he knows that Cuban will pay anything to keep this championship-caliber squad together. Cuban would be smart to play hardball with Terry.

The bigger offseason priority should be signing Howard to an extension. Howard has shown improvement every season, and if he makes another leap, he will be even more expensive next summer, when he’s a free agent. My guess is that the Mavs could lock him up in a 6-year/$60 M deal this summer. Assuming he stays relatively healthy, he shouldn’t have any problem earning that contract.

Dallas has the #28 pick in the draft, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Joel Freeland, a 19 year-old power forward out of England. Taking a foreign player that they can leave overseas for a year or two wouldn’t be a bad idea considering the depth of the current Mavs roster. But, considering Stackhouse’s age and Daniels’ questionable status with Avery Johnson, they could also look use a good shooting guard prospect – maybe P.J. Tucker or Denham Brown.

Dallas’ EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dirk Nowitzki 0.718 # 4
Josh Howard 0.498 # 76
Erick Dampier 0.474 # 96
Devin Harris 0.439 # 130
Jason Terry 0.429 # 139
Desagana Diop 0.417 # 155
Marquis Daniels 0.396 # 187
Keith Van Horn 0.395 # 188
Jerry Stackhouse 0.372 # 233
Adrian Griffin 0.366 # 243
Josh Powell 0.316 # 293
Rawle Marshall 0.282 # 312
Darrell Armstrong 0.281 # 313

The Mavs should be building around Harris, Howard and Nowitzki – everyone else is expendable. They should draft accordingly, looking for a future backcourt mate for Harris or someone that can score in the post alongside Nowitzki.