Category: NBA (Page 476 of 595)

Denver Nuggets: Good defensive team?

The Warriors got off to a great start in the first quarter, but as soon as the Nuggets switched to a zone, the momentum shifted and Denver coasted to a 114-105 win in Oakland. The win gives Denver a full game lead on the Warriors, but the Nuggets also own the head-to-head tiebraker, so they essentially have a two game lead with three games to play.

As I was reading up on the game today, I ran across a ton of commentary about how bad these two teams are defensively. It got me wondering, just how bad are they? Well, it’s true that these two teams allow the most points in the league, but they also play at a very high pace, so there are more possessions, which means their opponents have more chances to score. It’s not really fair to judge their defense without taking into account their pace, is it?

John Hollinger is ESPN’s numbers guy, and he keeps track of pace as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. The results are interesting. Unsurprisingly, Denver and Golden State are 1/2 in pace. The Nuggets play an average of 102.1 possessions per game while the Warriors play 101.2. Hollinger’s defensive efficiency number is simply the number of points a team allows divided by 100 possessions. Denver and Golden State are terrible, right? Wrong. While the Warriors are just on the edge of the bottom third (#20) the Nuggets finish a respectable 10th.

That means that possession for possession, the Nuggets do a fairly good job of playing defense. This conclusion is backed up by the fact that they are in the middle of the pack (13th) in defensive field goal percentage. (Golden State is a less-than-mediocre 22nd.)

So next time your buddy knocks the Nuggets, bet him that Denver is in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency and opponents’ field goal percentage. You’re bound to win some dough.

Is Derrick Rose the new #1 pick?

Derrick Rose had a wonderful NCAA tournament, but was less than spectacular against Kansas. He may have been bothered with a stomach ailment, but he just didn’t look like himself. In a recent column, ESPN’s Chad Ford discusses Rose’s draft stock:

NBA scouts and GMs say that, overall, Rose helped himself more than anyone else in the tournament. Considering he was already the consensus No. 2 pick in the draft, that’s saying something. More GMs than ever are starting to say that the No. 1 pick in the draft should be Rose, not fellow freshman Michael Beasley. While Rose didn’t put up Beasley’s numbers this year, his leadership, position and upside all suggest to some in the NBA that he could have an impact similar to Chris Paul’s in the league. That’s saying something.

We’ll keep monitoring this over the coming weeks. I’d estimate that about 65 percent of GMs I’ve spoken with still have Beasley atop their boards. But the trend is clearly tracking toward Rose.

I think this comes down to what the team with the #1 pick needs. The likely lottery winners are Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, New York and Memphis. I think the Grizzlies would take Beasley (since they already have Mike Conley), while the Sonics, Timberwolves and the Knicks would take Rose. The Heat could go either way depending on what they do with Shawn Marion and whether or not they want Dwyane Wade playing the point or off guard. Generally speaking, it’s tougher to find a game-changing point guard than it is to find a game-changing forward, so that favors Rose. Both guys are can’t-miss picks.

By the way, neither guy has declared for the draft… yet.

Photos courtesy of Flickr.

Howie Schwab: Master of the obvious

Howie Schwab, who gained notoriety for his ESPN game show “Stump the Schwab,” comments on the number of college players leaving for the NBA.

It’s hard to argue with the sentiment, but Howie doesn’t name any names. Sure, he says O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon should leave early, but he doesn’t identify any of the guys that he thinks he should stay in school. That’s kind of a cop out. It’s like saying if you’re good enough to be drafted in the first round, you should go to the NBA, but if you’re not, you should stay in school. Wow, what a nugget of wisdom. That’s exactly how those players who are declaring for the draft but aren’t hiring an agent are approaching this. If they don’t get a good response from teams, they can still go back to school.

The conventional thinking is that the longer a player stays in college, the better he’ll be when he reaches the NBA. While this is true for most, there are those players whose apparent potential is greater than their actual potential. For those players, if it looks like they’ll be drafted in the first round, it’s smart to leave early and get that guaranteed money. It’s not good for the quality of the NBA or college basketball, but you can’t blame a kid for taking a shot at a multi-million dollar contract if someone’s willing to give it to him.

Shaq starting to pay dividends in Phoenix

The Suns’ decision to trade away Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal raised more than a few eyebrows around the league, but it’s clear that Phoenix did it with the intention of winning now. A healthy (and motivated) Shaq can still shift the balance, especially in the playoffs where he’ll get plenty of rest between games. Last night, the Suns blitzed the Spurs in San Antonio, and Shaq was a big reason why.

ESPN’s Ric Bucher described the game this way:

O’Neal, despite being Shaqled with foul trouble all night, chipped in 16 points and nine rebounds and served as the Big Antidote against Tim Duncan, who needed 21 shots to collect 23 points and had only two in the final 15 minutes. Result: a 96-79 Suns’ win and more woofin’ in the visiting AT&T locker room than has been heard in quite some time. Phoenix is now 2-0 against the Spurs in their Shaq era and, while they fully understand the Spurs are a different animal in the playoffs, they clearly see themselves as a step above the Suns teams San Antonio eliminated from the playoffs three of the past four years.

I didn’t like the trade initially, and I still don’t think it was the right move when looking at the Suns’ long-term prospects. But if Shaq can stay on the court and is playing with energy, he could put Phoenix over the top in the short term.

Whether or not the Suns will face the Spurs in the first two rounds of the playoffs is another matter. Going into tonight’s games, the top six teams are separated by just three games, so a lot could happen over the final few games. The Suns would potentially play the Lakers, Spurs and Hornets in consecutive series – not an easy road.

It looks like the Hornets will be the #1 seed and will face either the Nuggets or the Warriors (probably whomever wins tonight). Dallas looks to be all but a lock for the #7 seed, but the #2-#6 seeds change nightly.

Photos courtesy of Flickr.

Denver/Golden State: Who wants it?

Tonight’s Nuggets/Warriors matchup will be the closest thing we’ll get to a Game 7 during the regular season. Record-wise, the teams are tied at 47-31 and the winner will gain a full game advantage on that coveted eighth playoff spot in the West. After tonight, each team will have just three games left to play, so a win is crucial for both teams.

Moreover, the game is at ORACLE Arena, which always boasts an energized crowd. Remember that Dallas series in the playoffs last season? Expect that kind of energy from the Golden State faithful.

Lastly, these are the two highest scoring teams in the league, so it should be an up-and-down affair for the full 48 minutes.

Since it’s at home, the Warriors have the edge, but the Nuggets have played better ball of late so it should be a tight game.

It’s on TNT tonight at 8 PM ET.

« Older posts Newer posts »