Category: NBA Finals (Page 53 of 58)

Pistons/Cavs (Pistons –320)

LeBron and Co. took the Pistons to seven games last year, but Cavs really aren’t playing as well in these playoffs. They did take a step forward by making it to the East Finals, but as a whole the conference isn’t as strong as last year and Cleveland certainly hasn’t looked very sharp thus far. The Cavs do have the luxury of having the most talented player in the series, and that gives them a shot.

Detroit faltered a bit after looking pretty sharp in the first three games in the series against the Bulls. They look like the best team in the East, but they’re certainly beatable. The series price (-320) looks about right, considering that the Pistons are better at every position except for small forward. If Drew Gooden is able to outplay Chris Webber, or if Larry Hughes is able to outplay Rip Hamilton, the series could go a long way. In the end, I think Detroit has the experience to get past the Cavs (and home court in Game 7 doesn’t hurt either). Regardless, this is an opportunity for LeBron to start his legacy. Detroit is certainly beatable. Can LeBron carry his team to the Finals?

Spurs/Jazz (Spurs -480)

The line on this series is a little surprising. Sure, the Spurs are the best team remaining in these playoffs, but aren’t the Jazz the second-best? Utah and San Antonio split the season series, 2-2, and the Jazz are very adept at playing the Spurs’ grind-it-out game. San Antonio wins a lot of games by out-executing their opponents, but it won’t be easy to out-execute the Jazz.

The series features some great matchups. Deron Williams and Tony Parker are two of the best young point guards in the game and a potential Tim Duncan/Carlos Boozer matchup is tantalizing. I’m guessing we’ll see a lot of Andrei Kirilenko on Manu Ginobili, since the Jazz really need to contain him in order to get past the Spurs. San Antonio does have the edge in the series, but if I were a betting man, I’d say that the Jazz at +380 is a wager that has some value.

Ultimately, I think we’ll see a Spurs/Pistons rematch of the 2005 Finals, which was a well-played, competitive series. But I’d sure like to see some new blood in there.

A: Yes and no.

Sure, Dirk Nowitzki had a few embarrassing performances in the NBA Finals. Game 4 was a nightmare for the big German, as he shot a woeful 2-14 from the field in the Mavs’ 98-74 loss. But the entire team looked hungover from their stunning meltdown in Game 3, so Dirk can hardly be blamed entirely for the loss. Speaking of Game 3, Nowitzki – a 90.1% free throw shooter in the regular season – missed a free throw that would have sent the game to overtime. But everything that could have gone wrong went wrong in the final six and a half minutes of Game 3, and the Mavs players will forever be haunted by those 390 seconds.

It’s true – Nowitzki wasn’t quite himself in the series. He shot 39% from the field after shooting 46% in the Conference Finals and over 50% in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He averaged 22.8 points in the Finals after averaging at least 27.1 points in each of the first three rounds. But 23 points and 12 rebounds aren’t “choke” numbers; Nowitzki was harassed by an effective Heat defensive that featured a scrappy Udonis Haslem and lots of double-teams when he tried to put the ball on the floor.

This season, Nowitzki made great strides in aggressively taking the ball to the hoop, but he’s still a jump shooter and jump shooters occasionally have an off night. Normally, when he’s struggling from the field, he’ll penetrate to get himself going. He did just that in Game 4 and went to the line 13 times, scoring 16 points despite shooting just 14% from the field that night. Whenever he put the ball on the floor, another Heat player rushed him, forcing him to give the ball up. Miami’s game plan was to make someone else beat them and neither Jason Terry (1-12 in the second half of Game 6) nor Josh Howard (5-16 in Game 6) were up to the task. Nowitzki played well with his team facing elimination in Game 6 – he scored 29 points on 10-22 shooting, while grabbing 15 rebounds. Not bad for a “choker.”

I left Dwayne Wade out of The “Next Jordan” article I wrote for Bullz-Eye, mostly because I viewed him as a combo guard who plays a lot of point, while the rest of the guys on the list were swingmen. Also, there wasn’t a lot of “Next Jordan” discussion about Wade when he entered the draft – all of that talk revolved around a high school kid out of Ohio. But, this week, while LeBron James looked on from his living room, Wade was carrying the Heat to their first NBA title.

Wade had a phenomenal playoff run, averaging 28.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.7 assists, while shooting a stellar 50% from the field. He stepped up his game in the Finals, averaging 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists in the six games. But when you take away the first two games of the series, when Wade was still getting over the flu, he averaged 39.3 points in the last four games – all victories.

Those are certainly Jordan-esque numbers, but everyone should stop making the comparison. First of all, Wade is just a baby in terms of his career. Let’s see how he sustains this play and how he adjusts to the different defenses he’s going to see in the future, not to mention the eventual loss of Shaquille O’Neal as a running mate.

There’s no arguing that Wade was the star of the series, but I’m going to remember just three things from this year’s Finals: Wade’s great play, Dallas’ meltdown and, most importantly, two blown calls in the waning moments of Games 5 and 6 that basically handed the Heat the championship.

Scratch that, I’m going to remember something else as well – how about all of those double-teams that the Mavs threw at Shaq? With Dallas scrambling on defense, those double-teams certainly opened things up for the rest of the Heat, including Wade. My memory is a little hazy, but I don’t remember anyone double-teaming any Chicago players not wearing #23 during the Bulls’ two championship runs.

In general, I like Wade’s game, but he definitely benefited from the generosity of the officials in the last four games of the series, where he shot 73 free throws. In fact, he got more calls in these playoffs than Jordan did during his playoff career – 30.9% of Wade’s points this postseason came from the free throw line. During Jordan’s 13-year postseason career, just 24.4% of his points came from the charity stripe.

But here’s an eerie stat: in Jordan’s 5th playoffs, he scored 183 of his 591 points from the free throw line, which averages out to 30.9%, the only time Jordan scored more than 30% of his points at the free throw line.

So, for now, let’s table this “Next Jordan” talk. If you want something to argue about, who would you take right now – Wade or LeBron? And who will end up with more championships?

Cap Situation

Counting Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ $9.7 M salary, the Cavs are on the books for almost $50 M next season. He is slated to make nearly $32 M over the next three seasons, with the team holding the option for a fourth season. In his 29 minutes, Big Z was the #16 most effective player, with an EPM of .620. With his history of injury, he’s a risky proposition, but considering the deals that Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert signed last offseason, Ilgausakas is a good deal.

Of course, the team’s fortunes ride on the shoulders of LeBron James. James is in the final year of his contract ($5.8 M) and is eligible to sign a max extension this summer. He has said that he wants to stay in Cleveland, but until he signs – sometime between July 12th and October 31st – Cavs fans everywhere will be waiting nervously. Any team would be hard pressed to replace his EPM of .691, which was #7 in the league last season.

Larry Hughes was brought in to be James’ sidekick, but his history of injury (144 missed games in the last seven seasons) caught up with him once again. Hughes was only able to appear in 36 games this season and shot a less-than-stellar 41%, while averaging 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists. His EPM of .391 is pretty poor considering that the team is set to pay him almost $50 M over the next four years. If Hughes can’t stay healthy, he’s not going to be able to earn his contract. Given the fact that he’s missed 25% of his games the last seven years, I’m not holding my breath. The Hughes signing will either make or break this team over the next few years.

Desperate for outside shooting, the team signed Donyell Marshall (3-yrs/$17 M remaining) and Damon Jones (3-yrs/$12 M) last offseason, and neither guy lived up to his billing. Marshall shot just 40% from the field and 32% from long range, while Jones shot just 39% and 38% respectively. Marshall at least brings some rebounding (6.1 per game) but Jones brings little else.

Anderson Varejao (EPM=.483) was a nice surprise, but wasn’t given very many minutes (15.9) during the regular season. He earned more time in the postseason and performed well, although he has no low post game to speak of. However, the 23 year-old Brazilian might be the Cavs’ future at the power forward position.

Eric Snow is the team’s point guard, and with his EPM (.276) it’s clear that he doesn’t bring much to the team outside of solid defense. He’s set to make more than $20 M over the next three seasons, and I’d bet that the Cavs would love to use that money elsewhere.

Offseason Blueprint

Signing James to a max contract is obviously the team’s number one priority this offseason. After that, the Cavs need to decide if Drew Gooden is in the team’s long-term plans. Gooden averaged 10.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per game (down from 14.4 / 9.2 the year before), but the former Jayhawk played three fewer minutes and took three fewer shots per game. He shot 51% for the season and is reasonably athletic, but his numbers were down in the playoffs (8.2 points, 7.5 rebounds in 22 mpg). Signing James to an extension and re-signing Gooden will put the team over the salary cap for the foreseeable future, so the Cavs need to be sure about Gooden. He is a restricted free agent, so they do have the right to match any offer sheet he signs with another team.

Cleveland has the #25 pick and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shawne Williams out of Memphis. I’m not sure why they would take a small forward when they’ve already got the best one in the league. They’d be better served trying to find a good point guard if they can’t land one (Marcus Banks, Speedy Claxton?) with the mid-level exception.

Like many playoff teams, the Cavs can choose to go over the cap as they continue to re-sign their free agents, they can try to exchange a strength (depth at power forward) for a weakness (lack of a point guard), or they can let their free agents go and try to stay close to the cap.

Notes:

Cleveland’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Lebron James 0.691 # 7
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 0.620 # 16
Drew Gooden 0.534 # 45
Anderson Varejao 0.483 # 86
Donyell Marshall 0.422 # 150
Alan Henderson 0.404 # 173
Larry Hughes 0.391 # 197
Ronald Murray 0.299 # 305
Eric Snow 0.276 # 319
Damon Jones 0.248 # 339
Aleksandar Pavlovic 0.229 # 346

Assuming James signs the max offer, the next big decision is Drew Gooden. If he’s not in their long-term plans, the team would be wise to get some compensation for him via a sign-and-trade, ideally landing a good-shooting point guard in the process. It’s too bad that the Raptors aren’t in the market for a power forward. Mike James would be a great fit in Cleveland.

Miami 95, Dallas 92 (Heat win series, 4-2)
I’ve played basketball for more than 20 years, and one thing is certain: there is nothing more frustrating (from an opponent’s perspective) than a ref giving calls to a good player who repeatedly throws himself into a defensive player. It’s almost like the officials have an incomplete checklist. Was there contact? Check. Is the offensive player a superstar? Check. Let’s send him to the line! Only the refs are forgetting the most important question: does the offensive player create the contact? The officials gave Game 5 to the Heat when, at the end of the game, they rewarded Dwayne Wade with two free throws on a phantom foul call on Dirk Nowitzki. Fast forward to the end of Game 6, 0:26 to play, Miami leading 91-90, Wade drives the ball, throws his arm out into a retreating Nowitzki, and Wade gets the call. Sure, the Mavs had a chance to tie at the buzzer, but that foul call put Dallas in a bad, bad position.

Hell, Dallas had a ton of chances to win the game. They couldn’t hit an open three to save their lives – they went 5-22 (23%) for the game. Jason Terry had the worst second half of his life, going 1-12 (8%) from the field in the final two periods. (I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: No team should pay Jason Terry more than $8 M a season.) The entire Dallas squad was throwing up bricks, shooting a dismal 37% from the field in the game. I’ve since turned the television off, but I’m assuming Wade won MVP, and deservedly. He scored 147 points over the final four games – that’s a 36.8 point average. But it helps when you get to the line 73 times in those same four games. Let me write that again: Dwayne Wade shot 73 free throws in the final four games. For their part, Dallas certainly didn’t do anything to win the series. Their fall from a 2-0 series lead and a 13-point lead with less than seven minutes to play in Game 3, to lose the series in six games, has to go down as one of the biggest meltdowns of all time. But Miami didn’t win this series either – the refs did. So let’s give them the rings.