Category: NBA Finals (Page 49 of 58)

Random thoughts from the NBA playoffs: Day 3

April 22, 2008 / John Paulsen

Jazz 90, Rockets 84
It doesn’t need to be said, but I’ll say it anyway: the Rockets are done. Kaput. They could steal a game in Utah, but it’s unlikely and it won’t matter. The Jazz are going to win this series…The 27 year-old Luis Scola made a late push for ROY, averaging 13.6 points and 8.4 rebounds after the All-Star break, and he went for 14/5 tonight, but the guy is pretty lost defensively. I counted at least three Utah baskets that were a direct result of Scola being woefully out of position. He also committed a bonehead foul that erased a game-tying three with less than a minute to play. I don’t know how good his English is, but it has to be tough to communicate complex basketball strategy to someone who doesn’t speak the language that well.

Cavs 116, Wizards 86
Brendan Haywood deserved to get tossed for his flagrant foul on LeBron. He simply threw a two-hand shove on an airborne player and didn’t make any attempt at the ball. The league has worked hard at cleaning up that garbage, and sometimes the refs go a little too far, but they got it right this time…The Wizards have to have THE UGLIEST uniforms in the league, possibly in all of sports. I don’t know who dreamt them up, but whoever it was should be fired.

Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

Random thoughts from the NBA playoffs: Day 2

April 21, 2008 / John Paulsen

Orlando 114, Toronto 100
Orlando is a year or two and a good shooting guard away from seriously contending in the East. J.J. Redick was supposed to be that guy, but he hasn’t been able to crack the rotation. Magic fans have to be sick of watching Keith Bogans and Maurice Evans bricking threes. They bring some defense, but the team needs a penetrating scoring guard who can create opportunities for the team’s perimeter shooters and knock down the occasional three himself. Corey Maggette immediately springs to mind and the Magic have the cap flexibility to make something happen this offseason…Speaking of the Clippers, Mike Dunleavy called today’s game. Doesn’t he have a draft to get ready for? It doesn’t seem like he should be out moonlighting after the season his team just had…I don’t usually second-guess a Van Gundy, but I’d put Dwight Howard on Chris Bosh and Rashard Lewis on Rasho Nesterovic defensively. Bosh plays more in the post and Rasho on the perimeter, and I wouldn’t want Howard responsible for closing out on Nesterovic 18 feet from the basket. That said, Howard had five blocks, so covering Rasho didn’t really hurt his ability to defend the rim.

Lakers 128, Nuggets 114
Pau Gasol’s playoff debut for the Lakers was a beauty. He posted 36 points, 16 rebounds, eight assists and three blocks. Maybe he should be MVP…It’s still early in the series, but it just doesn’t look like Denver has the discipline or chemistry to hang with the Lakers…Is it just me, or is Denver the league’s most tattooed team? ‘Melo, AI, K-Mart and Marcus Camby all have some serious ink. I wonder how many hours they collectively spent in tattoo parlors over the years.

Celtics 104, Hawks 81
A somewhat competitive game in the first half, this one got out of hand in the third quarter…Al Horford, my pick for ROY, had 20/10 on 7-10 shooting from the field…Mike Bibby shot 2-10, scoring five points with just one assist. He has averaged 14.7 points and 6.8 assists since the All-Star break but is shooting less than 42% from the field. Every time I look at Atlanta, I wonder how good they would be if they had drafted Chris Paul instead of Marvin Williams three years ago. Imagine running Paul out there with Joe Johnson, Josh Childress, Josh Smith and Horford. (Of course, they probably wouldn’t have had a shot at Horford if Paul were running the team last season.)

Sixers 90, Pistons 86
I recorded the fourth quarter of this one just in case it was close. I’m glad I did. The Pistons had their chances – Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace all missed bunnies in the closing minutes, allowing the Sixers to steal a win…Reggie Evans was huge off the Philly bench with 14 rebounds (expected) and 11 points (unexpected), including a few huge buckets down the stretch…The Sixers are playing so well that this one could go six or seven games.

Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

Random thoughts from the NBA Playoffs: Day 1

April 20, 2008 / John Paulsen

Cleveland 93, Washington 86
With all the roster changes, Mike Brown has had to shuffle and reshuffle the lineup several times, so it’s interesting to see whom he’s going with in the clutch. Down the stretch he had Delonte West and Boobie Gibson in the backcourt, LeBron and Joe Smith at forward and Ilgauskas at center…I think it’s safe to say that today’s performances from Ben Wallace (0 points, 6 rebounds, 0 blocks) and Wally Szczerbiak (2-10 shooting, 8 points) didn’t do much to make Danny Ferry feel any better about those midseason trades. It looks like the best thing to come out of those moves was Delonte West (16 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists), who has been quite good in his short career when he’s able to stay healthy. He and Gibson are a pair of combo guards that have the ability to knock down open shots and are quick enough defensively to stay with Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson…I really liked how LeBron went to the hole in crunch time. He sometimes has a tendency to pull up for a jumper when he doesn’t need to, but he was terrific in the fourth quarter today.

San Antonio 117, Phoenix 115
The Suns really let this one slip away. How often does a team go 5-6 from the field in overtime and not win the game? It was Amare Stoudemire’s three costly turnovers that allowed the Spurs to stay in the game…Is it just me or does it seem like Tim Duncan is constantly complaining to the officials? In fact, the entire Spurs team seems to gripe on just about every call that doesn’t go their way. They’re starting to remind me of a couple of the teams in my Tuesday night adult rec league, and that’s not a compliment…Jeff Van Gundy says that every young player should learn to execute Manu Ginobili’s “European” steps to the hoop. The only problem is that Ginobili’s change of direction is typically called a travel in high school and college here in the U.S. It occurred to me that might be one of the reasons that white European players have had more success in the NBA than white American players. On that same point, Ginobili needs to stop asking the ref to call traveling on other players. He gets away with more steps than anyone since MJ…The Suns let this one get away, but psychologically they should be feeling pretty good. Shaq and Amare were in foul trouble the entire game and the Big Fundamental went for 40, and the Suns still almost won. If Duncan doesn’t hit that three (it was his first of the season), they win the game. They just need to take better care of the ball and the rest will fall into place.

New Orleans 104, Dallas 92
Most NBA playoff games are decided in the fourth quarter, but this one was decided in the third when the Hornets went on a 16-3 run that gave them a working margin in the fourth. Chris Paul (35 points, 10 assists) was electric and it doesn’t look like the Mavs have anyone to match up with Tyson Chandler (10 points, 15 boards). For the Mavs, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse shot a combined six of 25, and Devean George didn’t help matters by missing six shots in just twelve minutes of playing time. I bet Mark Cuban is really excited about George still being on the roster after he initially blocked that Kidd trade.

Utah 93, Houston 82
Utah just picked the Rockets apart. The Jazz once again showed just how efficient they are offensively, shooting a blistering 52.1% from the field…T-Mac didn’t score in the fourth quarter, which will only add to his (mostly undeserved) postseason reputation. The big problem offensively for Houston was the absence of Rafer Alston, but the damage is already done. Now the Jazz have home court advantage and it’s next to impossible to beat them in Utah.

Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

Breaking down the championship odds

April 18, 2008 / John Paulsen

Here’s a list of the odds against each playoff team winning the NBA championship this year, courtesy of the World Sports Exchange:

BOSTON 8-5
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 4-1
SAN ANTONIO 15-2
DETROIT 15-2
PHOENIX 10-1
NEW ORLEANS 16-1
UTAH 18-1
DALLAS 20-1
ORLANDO 30-1
CLEVELAND 36-1
HOUSTON 36-1
DENVER 50-1
WASHINGTON 55-1
TORONTO 100-1
PHILADELPHIA 150-1
ATLANTA 150-1

So which team to take? I’m not much of a betting man, but I don’t remember the last time you could get 16-1 odds on the #2 seed in the West. In fact, I like the odds on New Orleans, Phoenix, Utah and Dallas – four teams with a legitimate shot to make the Finals. Utah probably the hottest team in the West and their odds are a little inflated after a poor late-season performance against the Spurs.

In the East, there doesn’t seem to be much value in the odds for Boston or Detroit. Orlando’s odds are a little tempting, just because they do have a decent shot at reaching the Finals, and if you already have them at 30-1, you can take their Western Conference opponent before the Finals to give yourself a nice payday no matter who wins.

As for the Celtics, there isn’t much sense in taking 8-5 odds right now. If they do make the Finals, they probably won’t be big favorites, so you’ll be able to get close to even money at that point – why risk it now?

ESPN’s numbers guy, John Hollinger, predicts a Celtics/Jazz matchup in the Finals, so those Utah odds are looking pretty solid. He has the Hornets at #4 and the Suns at #5, so it looks like there is some value in those middle teams out West.

Free Picks, NBA, NBA Finals

NBA Playoff Preview

April 17, 2008 / John Paulsen

With the regular season wrapping up Wednesday night, it’s now time to turn our attention to the playoffs, which have the potential to be the best in years. Obviously, the focus is on the West, where eight 50+ win teams are separated by just seven games in the standings. This means that there are no free passes into the second round; every first round series in the West has potential to be a good one (and an upset).

“The survivor of the brutal West will have another tough test in the Finals. The resurgent Celtics (66-16) and the steady Pistons (59-23) have the two best records in the league. How much the weak schedule in the East exaggerates these records isn’t clear, though the Celtics are a league-best 14-6 against the top 10 teams in the league. So if Kevin Garnett and Co. survive, we could be in for a very compelling Finals.

At the beginning of the season, I picked the Suns over the Celtics in the Finals, but with Pau Gasol, Jason Kidd and Shaquille O’Neal being added to contenders in the West, the landscape has changed a bit. The Celtics are looking good, and while the Suns are coming on, they have a tough road with a first round matchup against the Spurs, and potential matchups with the Hornets/Mavs and the Lakers down the road.

Since the West is so stacked, I’ll start there by previewing each series. As the playoffs progress, be sure to check back to see series-by-series previews as they develop.

THE WEST

#1 LA Lakers (57-25) vs. #8 Denver Nuggets (50-32)
Season series: Lakers, 3-0
“The Lakers clinched home court throughout the Western Conference playoffs, but since they own the West’s best road record, it isn’t that big of a deal. The larger question is the health of Andrew Bynum. After a discouraging visit with a knee specialist in New York, he may still be weeks away. With a healthy Bynum, the Lakers are the favorites to emerge from the West, but without him, they may have trouble defending the likes of Tim Duncan or Shaq in the middle. The Nuggets have the talent to upset the Kobe and the Lakers, but with ‘Melo’s alleged DUI hanging over their heads, one wonders if the team is focused enough to pull the upset. The Lakers have dominated the season series, so I see no reason to pick the Nuggets in this one.
My pick: Lakers

#4 Utah (54-28) vs. #5 Houston (55-27)
Season series: Jazz, 2-1
The Jazz won the Northwest, but since the Rockets finished ahead of them in the standings, Utah doesn’t have home court advantage in the first round. This is vitally important for the Jazz, who are 37-4 at home and just 17-24 on the road. Even though the Rockets went on that historic 22-game winning streak, they are just 9-7 since, so the loss of Yao Ming may finally be catching up to them. T-Mac has never advanced past the first round of the playoffs and the Rockets are beatable in Houston, so I think the Jazz steal a game there and close it out in Game 6.
My pick: Jazz

#2 New Orleans (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas (51-31)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
This is one of the most compelling matchups in the first round. On one hand, you have the surprising Hornets, who elevated themselves to the #2 seed in the West when all the pundits thought they’d be fighting for a playoff spot. On the other, you have the (equally) surprising Mavs, who have struggled this season before and after the Jason Kidd trade. After an inauspicious 4-5 start with Dallas, Kidd is now 12-8 with his new team – 10-6 in games in which Dirk Nowitzki played – so it’s not clear if the trade made Dallas any better. Kidd’s matchup with Chris Paul should be terrific, but it will probably come down to the play of Nowitzki, who has struggled – 17.3 ppg and 37% shooting – in four games against the Hornets. I’m going with the chalk, but the Mavs are a live dog. I think this one will go the full seven games.
My pick: Hornets

#3 San Antonio (56-26) vs. #6 Phoenix (55-27)
Season series: Suns, 3-1
The Spurs and Suns would be a good matchup in the Western Conference Finals, so this is the most compelling first-round series. The Suns are 18-11 with Shaq in the lineup (15-5 over their last 20 games), and this series will determine if Phoenix made the right move in trading for him. If the Suns lose, everyone will wonder if they would have been better off with Shawn Marion on the roster. After all, if it weren’t for a couple of bench-clearing suspensions in last year’s playoffs, the Suns probably would have upended the Spurs in the semis. San Antonio has home court advantage, but the Suns won the season series and are 2-0 against the Spurs with Shaq in the lineup. In those two games, Tim Duncan has shot a combined 38% from the field, so it seems like he’s a little bothered by Shaq’s presence. It’s tough to bet against the defending champs in the first round (especially with Manu Ginobili playing so well), but since I picked the Suns to win it all at the beginning of the season, I can’t very well pick them to lose this early.
My pick: Suns

THE EAST

#1 Boston (66-16) vs. #8 Atlanta (37-45)
Season series: Celtics, 3-0
The Celtics have the league’s best record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. With three hungry stars – KG, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen – and a group of quality role players, they are primed for a run to the Finals. Kudos to the Hawks for breaking a long playoff drought, but I don’t think they’ll take more than a game off the C’s, if that.
My pick: Celtics

#4 Cleveland (45-37) vs. #5 Washington (43-39)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
“The Cavs are 14-13 since the trades that brought Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West to Cleveland, so it’s fair to say that things aren’t going swimmingly. Szczerbiak is shooting just 36% since the trade and has seen his playing time cut dramatically as a result. Wallace’s minutes and rebounds are down as well. The only real bright spot from the trade is the play of West, who has come on late in the season. Meanwhile, the Wizards have Gilbert Arenas back, but he has missed some time with a sore knee, so there’s no telling just how healthy he is. Two years ago, these teams had a very entertaining first-round series that went six games and featured three one-point wins by the Cavs. Agent Zero ruffled some feathers when he announced that he and the Wizards wanted the Cavs in the first round and DeShawn Stevenson called LeBron “overrated” earlier in the year. Despite the Cavs’ considerable woes, I think James will be on a mission and will do everything in his power to eliminate the Wizards from the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
My pick: Cavs

#2 Detroit (59-23) vs. #7 Philadelphia (40-42)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
This is one of those matchups that seems easy to pick on paper, but a closer look reveals more. The Sixers were floundering at 16-28 in late January, but turned it around to go 24-14 over the last three months of the season. Philly is getting terrific play from its perimeter players, anchored by Andre Iguodala and the 32 year-old Andre Miller, who is averaging 17.9 points and 7.4 assists since the All-Star break. An improving frontline features lots of double-doubles from Samuel Dalembert, while rookie Thaddeus Young is averaging 11 points and five boards since the All-Star break. As for the Pistons, they’re still the same ol’ bunch, but they’re getting some punch from youngsters Jason Maxiell (10.8 points, 6.6 boards in April) and Rodney Stuckey (14.0 points, 4.2 assists in April) off the bench. I don’t think the Sixers have the juice to upend the Pistons, but they could push this series to six games.
My pick: Pistons

#3 Orlando (52-30) vs. #6 Toronto (41-41)
Season series: Magic, 2-1
“Orlando is all about its three-headed monster of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and (my MIP pick) Hedo Turkoglu. Combined, the trio scores 56% of the team’s points and gathers 60% of its rebounds. Stan Van Gundy has squeezed as much defensive juice out of the Magic as he could, which has led to Orlando’s first 50+ win season since the Shaq era. Meanwhile, the Raptors have taken a step backward this season. They will rely on Chris Bosh and a group of players that know their role. In T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon, the Raptors have an advantage at point guard, but the Magic are better at just about every other roster position. With the Raptors up-tempo attack and D-Ho’s considerable ability, this matchup has a chance to be the most entertaining first round series in the East.
My pick: Magic