Watching the once-proud Suns and Mavs (and the not-so-proud Nuggets) lose their first round series with a combined 2-12 record, the opening lyrics from “Games People Play” (the ol’ Alan Parsons Project song) popped into my head. I realize I’m dating myself, but here they are:
Where do we go from here / now that all other children are growing up
And how do we spend our lives / if there’s no one to lend us a hand
I don’t wanna live here no more / I don’t wanna stay
Ain’t gonna spend the rest of my life / quietly fading away
So where do these three teams go from here?
THE SUNS
Bill Simmons just wrote a good, long piece about the downfall of the Suns where he discusses all the questionable moves that the organization made to get where they are now. I agree with most of what he says, except his claim that the Spurs were the better team in last year’s series with the Suns. (You know, the one where Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended for the crucial Game 6 in Phoenix when the Suns were up 3-2 and had a chance to put the Spurs away on their home court.) I firmly believe that the Suns would have won that game had Stoudemire and Diaw played, so I never liked their decision to trade Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal (which Simmons defends). The funny thing is that suspension may have completely altered the NBA landscape. Teams around the league were starting to mimic the Suns’ breakneck offensive attack, but the perception after that series was that it wasn’t effective in the playoffs. If the Suns’ win the title that year, the overall pace of the league would have continued to rise.
That said, the Suns have made a series of bad roster moves since 2005, when a 62-win team that featured a core of Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson fell short in the playoffs against the Spurs. The franchise squandered the opportunity to keep that group together when negotiations with Joe Johnson soured. According to Marc Stein, this was due to a perceived slight when the Suns’ initial offer of a six-year, $60 million contract irked Johnson.
In his first extended interview about his future since free agency began Friday, Johnson said his desire to leave the Suns involves “a lot of things,” starting with contentious negotiations on a contract extension last October that broke off with sides about $5 million apart. Johnson was rankled further earlier this month when, after a breakout season for himself and the team, Phoenix offered only $60 million over six years.
Yet sources close to the situation also insist that Johnson is most unhappy with what he perceives as his standing as a “fourth wheel” behind Stoudemire, Marion and especially Nash. The native of nearby Arkansas would instantly have his own team to run in Atlanta and become a franchise face for a club teeming with inexperience.
I don’t know if Stein is too familiar with a map of our great country, but Arkansas and Atlanta aren’t particularly close to one another, but that is neither here nor there. Whatever Johnson wanted, it was the Suns’ decision to let him go when they elected to work out a sign-and-trade with the Hawks instead of just matching the contract and keeping Johnson in Phoenix. That said, it’s a tough decision to keep a player who claims he doesn’t want to stay, but it’s not like his trade value is going to plummet if the Suns were to keep him for another season just to see how things worked out.
Since then, the Suns’ roster moves have tried to balance keeping the franchise a contender while staying out of luxury tax territory. This has resulted in Phoenix giving away most of their first-round picks so that teams would take salary off their hands. This leaves Phoenix with three players of note 26 years-old or younger – Amare Stoudemire, Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa and Diaw are locked up through 2011, while Stoudemire has a player option for that season. Nash and O’Neal both have contracts that run through 2010 and the team won’t have any cap flexibility until they’re off the books.
The pressing question seems to be whether or not to keep this group together for another year or two. By most accounts, Shaq played better than expected after the trade, so if they could get another solid effort out of him, they would be a factor in next year’s playoffs. But Nash seems to have lost a step – either that, or he isn’t as effective with Shaq on the court. It was obvious in the Spurs series that the team isn’t able to run as well with O’Neal on the court, though that’s partially due to the loss of Marion’s speed and athleticism.
Unless the team can find someone who wants to take on Shaq’s monster contract (two-years, $20 million), they’re going to have a tough time reshaping the roster anytime soon. They’ll probably regroup and give this core another shot. With that in mind, they need to add some three-point shooting to the lineup. With Shaq and Grant Hill on the court, Raja Bell (or Barbosa, when he’s playing off guard) is the team’s only legitimate three-point threat when Nash and Stoudemire are running their patented pick-and-roll. So they need a good shooting small forward to replace Hill. Either that, or they need to drastically change their offense.
It would probably be a mistake to let Mike D’Antoni go, though the perception is that he’s only good at coaching a breakneck offensive attack. If they let him go, the Raptors should snatch him up as he’d be a great fit with their “Suns East” roster.
THE MAVS
Ah, Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks. The team went “all in” this season when they traded Devin Harris and two first round draft picks for Jason Kidd. At the time of the trade, Harris – who is 10 years Kidd’s junior – was averaging 14.4 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 48% from the field and 36% from the three-point range. Those points, assists and three-point accuracy were all career highs for the young guard.
It was a gutsy move, but a dumb one. The Mavs decided that they weren’t going anywhere with the personnel they had (even though it was essentially the same roster that took them to the Finals two years prior), and they traded away their second-best prospect for a grizzled vet. Well, you know the rest: Kidd’s up-tempo style clashed with Avery Johnson, the Mavs were dispatched again in the first round (this time by the Hornets), and Johnson was subsequently fired.
Wow, what a difference two years makes! About this time in 2006, Dallas was on the verge of a NBA title before Dwyane Wade and the officials turned the tide of the series. The franchise has been in a hangover since then, and it only seems to be getting worse.
Dirk Nowitzki is still an All-NBA caliber player, but people are questioning his ability to be the best player on a title team. (By the way, I do think he can lead a team to a title with the right supporting cast.) And how far has Josh Howard’s stock fallen in the last month? Aside from a few nice moments, he was a no-show in the New Orleans series, shooting a woeful 29% from the field. Moreover, he became a giant distraction when he went on a radio show and admitted to using marijuana in the offseason (a definite NBA no-no). Most of us know that pot is pretty common in our society, and the NBA is no different, but what was once NBA’s dirty little secret became the focus of the series. Suddenly sideline reporters were asking about it, play-by-play guys were talking about it, and it just wouldn’t go away.
So where do the Mavs go from here? Well, Cuban is not one to easily admit a mistake, so he’s going to follow Kidd down the dusty trail and see where it takes him. He’s already tipped his hand by getting rid of his head coach, and he’ll eventually hire someone that is more Kidd-friendly. He probably plans to keep this group together, try to add a piece or two and hopefully make a run next season, which is the final year of Kidd’s contract.
If that doesn’t work, they’ll probably scrap the plan and rebuild around Nowtizki, Brandon Bass and Howard, if he’s still on the roster. It’s just too bad they don’t have a super-quick point guard to run the show…
THE NUGGETS
Denver was on a mission over the last month of the season, outlasting the Warriors for the final playoff spot in the West. Their reward? A first-round date with the surging Lakers, who unceremoniously swept the Nuggets out of the playoffs, raising all sorts of questions about the future of the franchise.
Is it time to put an end to the Carmelo Anthony/Allen Iverson experiment? AI can opt-out of his contract this summer, but he’d be leaving almost $22 million on the table, so it’s not a sure thing. The Nuggets won’t have any cap flexibility until AI’s salary is off the books, but the problem isn’t his contract, it’s the three years and $46 million remaining on Kenyon Martin’s contract.
Denver has a few nice pieces – an offensive stud (‘Melo), a great center (Marcus Camby) and two sharp-shooting youngsters (Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith). But for some reason these pieces just don’t seem to fit with each other. Iverson could be used as trade bait, but it would be tough for the Nuggets to find a trading partner with all the right pieces. If that’s the route they choose, they should look for a deal that includes a good young player, a first round draft pick (or two), and an expiring contract (or two).
The other issue is what to do with George Karl. Other than a few exceptions – Phil Jackson, Jerry Sloan and Greg Popovich – it seems like most NBA coaches have a shelf life of three or four years at any particular job, and Karl’s effectiveness in Denver seems to be waning.
The Nuggets had an opportunity to add Ron Artest before the trading deadline but reportedly nixed the deal because they didn’t want to give up Kleiza. Artest is an oddball, but he changed the defensive dynamic in Sacramento and he could do the same thing for the Nuggets. Artest will likely be a free agent this summer, but Denver doesn’t have the cap flexibility to sign him to anything more than the mid-level exception. He is likely to want more, though Artest is nothing if not surprising.
One scenario would be for the Nuggets to trade ‘Melo and start over. This seems like a crazy idea, especially considering that he’is good enough to pretty much guarantee a winning record for the remainder of his contract, which runs through 2012. It’s a lot easier to blow up the team when you’re missing the playoffs every season, but when you’ve put up five straight 43+ win seasons, it’s a lot more appealing to try to tweak what you’ve got. But the simple fact is that the Nuggets haven’t won a playoff series in Anthony’s career, so something needs to change. It’s either ‘Melo or the pieces around him. Given AI’s contract status and Karl’s tenuous position, it should be a very interesting summer in Denver. My bet is that one of them – Karl or AI – is gone next season.
The Cavs are 5 to 1 underdogs, and it’s easy to see why. Other than Zydrunas Ilgauskas, LeBron doesn’t have much (experienced) help on the offensive end. There’s the sharp-shooting backcourt of Daniel Gibson and Delonte West, but Wally Szczerbiak has pretty much been a no show since arriving in Cleveland. It’s going to take a superhuman effort from James to keep the Cavs in the series.
