Category: NBA Finals (Page 43 of 58)

      Lakers/Spurs Preview: Kobe vs. Manu, Duncan vs. Gasol, Parker vs. Fish

      May 21, 2008 /

      Like most NBA fans, I was rooting for the Hornets in their series against the Spurs. It’s not because I hate San Antonio; I’m just sick and tired of watching them play. But the Spurs prevailed and now they face my least favorite team, the Lakers. As much as I like to root against both of these franchises, this is an excellent matchup.

      Kobe has the unenviable task of having to guard Manu Ginobili on one end and while being guarded by Bruce Bowen on the other. But he’s the MVP, right? Everyone keeps telling me that he’s the hardest working player in the NBA, so he should be able to handle those responsibilities.

      Down low, Pau Gasol will have to defend Tim Duncan in the post. Gasol has trouble defensively, but his long arms could bother Duncan if the Big Fundamental’s face up game isn’t flowing. Duncan is a lot stronger, so he’d be wise to mix some power moves in to keep Gasol on his heels. Gasol also has trouble scoring on Duncan, but if he can come close to holding his own in the post, the Lakers have a good shot.

      Back on the perimeter, it’s speed versus strength in the Tony Parker/Derek Fisher matchup. If Fisher can’t keep Parker out of the paint, it’s going to be a long series for the Lakers. Parker’s jumper is improving, but it’s still inconsistent. If he gets on a roll from the outside, there will be no way for Fisher to guard him.

      Lamar Odom is quick for a power forward and I don’t think Fabricio Oberto or Kurt Thomas can hold him on the perimeter. Neither player is good enough offensively to demand a lot of playing time, so I expect Robert Horry will see significant minutes in this series. It’ll be his responsibility to keep Odom out of the paint and off the glass.

      This series might come down to bench play. The Lakers have a young, up-and-coming group of reserves, while the Spurs are grizzled and experienced. The Lakers’ bench wasn’t very good in the Utah series, so it will be interesting to see how they play now that a trip to the Finals is on the line. Phil Jackson seems to go with the hot hand when choosing the fifth guy to finish games. One game it’s Luke Walton, the next it’s Sasha Vujacic. Whoever it is, they will have to play mistake-free ball, because no one on the Spurs is going to fold under pressure. They’ve all been there (too) many times before.

      The Lakers have home court advantage, which makes them a pretty solid favorite in the series. But I think the Spurs match up well, so I’m going to go out on a little bit of a limb and say that San Antonio wins this series in six games.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

      Celtics/Pistons Preview: What we’ve been waiting for

      May 20, 2008 /

      Thus far, the Eastern Conference Playoffs have gone according to seed, and we have the matchup that (most) everyone wanted to see… Boston vs. Detroit.

      At first glance, this simply looks like a battle of two experienced, defensive-minded teams. The Celtics have a trio of stars – Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen – along with been-there/done-that guys like James Posey and P.J. Brown. On the flip side, there’s the Pistons’ foursome of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace, who already have a ring and have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals 54 straight times.

      Heading into the playoffs, one would have to give the edge to the Celtics. After all, they won 66 games and no one can match their hunger. Conversely, the Pistons have seemed bored at times, and given their play against the Sixers and Magic, they were a legitimate threat to make an early exit.

      But here we are, a month later, and I’m giving the edge to the Pistons. The Celtics have yet to win a game on the road. Boston fans might say, “So what? We have home court advantage. We don’t need to win on the road.” But after dominating the Hawks in Boston, the C’s looked a little shaky against the Cavs in two of the four home games in the semis, including Game 7. The Celtics almost look too hungry. It’s as if Garnett and Co. have so much wrapped up in a title run that it’s impossible to play loose.

      I’m not sure how well Boston will score. The Pistons will defend Pierce with Prince, who is one of the best defenders in the league. His long arms can bother any shooter, especially one that isn’t that adept at going to the hole. Rip is a tireless defender, but he’ll be most effective by running Ray Ray ragged through countless screens on the offensive end. Then there’s the Garnett/Wallace matchup, which should be a beauty. These are two of the most competitive players in the league and KG’s intensity should bring out the best in Rasheed.

      I think the series may come down to just how much Billups can dominate Rajon Rondo. It’s not a given that Chauncey will have his way, but he has far more experience, so he should be able to win that matchup handily. Rondo prides himself on his defense, so if he can hold Billups down, the Celtics will have a good shot to win the series.

      The wildcard is bench play. Detroit is much improved in this area with Jason Maxiell (who has started at times) and Rodney Stuckey, who got some great experience when Billups missed time in the Orlando series. It’s tough to tell who’s a threat on Doc Rivers’ bench, since he changes the rotation so much. It will be interesting to see if he sticks with Eddie House or if he goes back to Sam Cassell.

      I’d like to see the Celtics in the Finals as there will be plenty of compelling storylines, regardless of their opponent. They do have home court advantage and are a slight favorite to win the series, but I think they finally drop a game at home and Detroit wraps it up in six.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

      Who’s to blame?

      May 20, 2008 /

      Like most NBA fans living outside the greater San Antonio area, I was rooting for the Hornets last night. I always like to see new blood deep in the playoffs and I was excited about the prospect of a Lakers/Hornets series pitting the top two MVP candidates against each other.

      Alas, it was not to be. A horrid third quarter did New Orleans in, and although they made a furious comeback in the fourth, the hole they dug was just too deep. I have to give a ton of credit to the Spurs, who made several adjustments between Game 2 and Game 3 that made life a lot tougher for the Hornets. They played terrific defense and Gregg Popovich should be lauded for having the trust in Robert Horry and Michael Finley, who hit some big shots down the stretch to keep the Hornets at bay.

      But New Orleans had the advantage heading into the game. It was at home where they had already blown out the Spurs three times in the series. What went wrong?

      It starts with Chris Paul. Though he had a near triple-double (18 points, 14 assists and eight boards), he wasn’t aggressive enough when the team went through its scoring draught. As a facilitator, it can be tough to know when to take over, and it wasn’t like Paul was getting great looks whenever he wanted. Next on the list is David West. After a third quarter where he made just two of seven shots, he only took two shots in the fourth. By the end of the game it was clear that his back was bothering him, so it’s hard to put too much blame on the young forward’s shoulders.

      Now Peja Stojakovic is another matter. He missed all four of his shots in the second half, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing if he’s getting open, but only one of those shots was a decent look. The other three were catch-and-fire jumpers early in the shot clock with a hand in his face. His performance brought back memories of the Game 7 debacle against the Lakers in the 2002 playoffs, where a late-fourth quarter airball from the corner sealed the loss for the Kings. It made me wonder – does Peja always choke in Game 7’s?

      Here are his stats from the four Game 7’s in which he’s played. The first three were with the Kings:

      2002: (Kings vs. Lakers) 3-12 from the field, 8 points
      2003: (Kings vs. Mavs) 7-15, 17 points
      2004: (Kings vs. T’Wolves) 3-12, 8 points
      2008: (Hornets vs. Spurs) 3-11, 7 points

      So he doesn’t choke in all Game 7’s, just most of them. Considering he has a career average of 18.2 points and shoots almost 46% from the field, his Game 7 average of 10.0 points and 32% shooting looks even worse.

      As they get older, it can be tough for former stars to accept a new role in this league. Peja can no longer take the ball to the hole unless he has his man completely out of position, so he’s pretty much a catch-and-shoot guy at this point in his career. But that doesn’t mean that if his team runs a play designed to get him a shot that he has to shoot it regardless of how open he is.

      There’s no telling what would have happened if Peja had turned down those shots and passed the ball back out to Paul. It wasn’t like the rest of the Hornets’ offense was running all that smoothly. There was no one on the offensive glass in the second half and some of the role players took some wild shots when the team really needed a bucket. The Hornets were pretty brutal for much of the second half, so there’s plenty of blame to go around.

      Still, they had a terrific season and should be back again this time next year. Sometimes a team has to taste defeat in order to bring out its best in crunch time. There’s no substitute for experience.

      Just ask the Spurs.

      NBA, NBA Finals

      The Cavs have failed LeBron James

      May 19, 2008 /

      There’s no other way to say it: the Cleveland front office has failed LeBron James.

      Just look at their current rotation: LeBron, Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Sasha Pavlovic, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson and Joe Smith. Other than LeBron, is there a player on that list that is in the top 20 at his position? Delonte West was probably the best thing to come out of those two deadline deals the team made in February, but he’s injury-prone and is a restricted free agent this offseason. Ilgauskas is probably still a top 20 center, but I can name 15 guys off the top of my head that I’d rather have on my team. (Okay, want me to list them? Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, Andrew Bynum, Brad Miller, Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Andris Biedrins, Samuel Dalembert, Mehmet Okur, Al Horford, Rasheed Wallace, Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal. There, that’s 17 for you.)

      The point is that the 2008 Cavs feature LeBron James with four below-average starters and a few mediocre rotation guys. I do like West, Varejao and Gibson, but that’s about it. What’s worse, the Cavs had the fourth highest payroll this season ($81.1 million) and they’re on the hook for another $74.8 million next season.

      It takes work to have a roster this expensive be this bad. But don’t blame it all on GM Danny Ferry. He took over in 2005 a full year after the Cavs’ bonehead move to let Carlos Boozer become a free agent because of a “verbal agreement” that he would re-sign for the mid-level exception. At that point, Boozer was a 22 year-old 15.5-point, 11.4-rebound power forward that had All-Star written all over him. Why in the world would you risk the advantage and consistency of pairing he and LeBron for the next decade just to save a few million on his contract? I know the fans in Cleveland hate Boozer for this, but it was probably his agent at the time, Rob Pelinka, who was at fault for Boozer’s part in things. I don’t know what kind of a promise Boozer made to the organization, but once he became a free agent, the Jazz offered him $4.6 million more per season than what the Cavs said they would pay him. For his part, Boozer has insisted all along that there was no handshake and no promise. Still, that kind of deal would be illegal under the collective bargaining agreement, so the blame falls entirely on the Cavs for pursuing (or claiming to pursue) such an arrangement.

      It is that historical misstep that has sent the Cavs franchise into its current tailspin. LeBron alone is good enough to win 40 games, and the Cavs supporting cast stepped up enough in the 2007 postseason for Cleveland to get past the dilapidated competition in the East to make a Finals appearance, but as the ensuing sweep (at the hands of the Spurs) would indicate, the Cavs were a long way from a title then and they are even further away now.

      And the clock is ticking. LeBron signed an abbreviated deal that allows him to opt-out in the summer of 2010. Barring any additional signings, the team projects to have some salary cap flexibility in the summer of 2009, when Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, and Eric Snow come off the books, but new contracts for Delonte West and Daniel Gibson threaten that flexibility. The team will have to improve through the draft and through trades – two areas where the Cavs have struggled over the past few years.

      Here’s a list of all the bad moves that the franchise has made since drafting LeBron:

      1. In 2004, the Cavs could have held onto Jason Kapono, one of the league’s best three-point shooters. But they elected not to re-sign him after he shot nearly 48% from long range. Sure, why would you want a guy that could make teams pay for doubling LeBron?

      2. Instead of drafting Luke Jackson (#10 overall), the team could have drafted Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Jameer Nelson or Andris Biedrins, whom were all drafted in the next 10 picks of the 2004 Draft.

      3. In 2004, they failed to pick up the option on Carlos Boozer, trying to do an illegal deal to get Boozer on the cheap. The so-called “verbal agreement” falls through when Boozer signs with Utah for six years and $68 million.

      4. Instead of trading for Sasha Pavlovic (giving up a first round pick that turned into the #13 pick overall), the team could have instead used that selection on Danny Granger, Rashad McCants, Hakim Warrick or Francisco Garcia, whom were all taken in the next 10 picks of the 2005 Draft.

      5. In the summer of 2005, instead of signing Larry Hughes to a five-year, $67 million deal, signing Donyell Marshall to a four-year, $22 millon contract, and re-signing Zydrunas Ilgauskas to a five-year, $51 million deal, the team could have made a stronger run at Michael Redd or Ray Allen (whom were both unrestricted free agents that summer) and Tyson Chandler or Samuel Dalembert (whom were both restricted free agents). If that failed, they could have saved all of that cap space for the future.

      6. In the 2006 Draft, the Cavs could have selected Jordan Farmar, one of the league’s best young point guards, instead of Shannon Brown. The Lakers took Farmar with the pick immediately following the Cavs’ pick. (Kudos to Ferry for drafting Gibson in the second round.)

      Simply stated, had the Cavs exercised the option on Boozer and made a better pick in the summer of 2004, the team could have had a core of LeBron and Boozer, along with Al Jefferson or Josh Smith. Now that sounds like a group with championship contender written all over it.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Draft, NBA Finals, Rumors & Gossip

      Ranking the top 30 shooting guards by total value

      May 19, 2008 /

      This is the second of five installments of my position-by-position rankings, where I consider the four major factors that affect a player’s total value: talent (statistical performance), affordability, age and potential. To see a more detailed explanation of my approach, give my point guard rankings a gander.

      To summarize a player’s stats, I’ll use the NBA Efficiency statistic, which is defined as:

      EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

      Essentially, the order of this list depends on the answer to the question – would you trade Player X for Player Y, assuming the goal is to win a title in the next three seasons, while also building a strong franchise for years to come?

      On with the rankings…

      1. Kobe Bryant, Lakers
      Age: 29
      EPG: 26.8
      Contract: three years, $69.1 M ($23.0 M per)
      His salary is astronomical, which makes it difficult to rank him ahead of the almost-as-effective-for-half-the-price Manu Ginobili, but Kobe is probably the league’s best one-on-one player and is the only guy who can match Manu’s fire and competitiveness.

      2. Manu Ginobili, Spurs
      Age: 30
      EPG: 19.9
      Contract: two years, $20.6 M ($10.3 M per)
      Ginobili should still be effective for the next three years, so his very reasonable contract makes him a reasonably close second to Kobe. His game has no holes and he is one of the best players in the league in the clutch.

      3. Brandon Roy, Blazers
      Age: 23
      EPG: 19.4
      Contract: three years, $12.2 M ($4.1 M per)
      Who would you rather have – Roy for $4.1 million per season or Dwyane Wade for $15.8 million? I’d take Roy and spend the difference elsewhere. He’s a terrific combo guard that has helped to bring the Blazers back to respectability.

      4. Dwyane Wade, Heat
      Age: 26
      EPG: 21.8
      Contract: three years, $47.3 M ($15.8 M per)
      Wade is extremely difficult to guard and he almost single handedly beat the Mavericks in the ’06 Finals. He has been bothered by a series of nagging injuries, which makes one wonder if his future is as bright as it once was.

      5. Kevin Martin, Kings
      Age: 25
      EPG: 19.8
      Contract: five years, $55.5 M ($11.1 M per)
      It looks like the Kings got a pretty good deal when they locked Martin up. He’s a terrific shooter and he should be able to anchor the Kings offensively for the remainder of his contract.

      6. Andre Iguodala, Sixers
      Age: 24
      EPG: 20.1
      Contract: restricted free agent
      Iguodala is a poor man’s Wade, and has the numbers to prove it. But is he just another player who can put up good numbers on a bad team? It’s going to be interesting to see how much the Sixers end up paying him. I expect it will be more than what Martin makes, which is why he’s below him on this list.

      7. Richard Hamilton, Pistons
      Age: 30
      EPG: 16.4
      Contract: two years, $22.0 M ($11.0 M per)
      Rip just keeps chugging along. The guy has always been a terrific midrange shooter, but over the last three years he’s improved his accuracy from long range (44% in 2007-08), which has made his offensive game even more dangerous. He’s a tireless defender and has a great work ethic, so his game shouldn’t decline as fast as usual. Moreover, he’s affordable.

      8. Joe Johnson, Hawks
      Age: 26
      EPG: 19.6
      Contract: two years, $29.2 M ($14.6 M per)
      Johnson had a couple of nice games in the playoffs, but he’d still look a whole lot better in a Suns uniform right now. Still, he’s a young, virtual player who is just hitting his prime, and he doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game.

      9. Mike Miller, Grizzlies
      Age: 28
      EPG: 18.1
      Contract: two years, $18.8 M ($9.4 M per)
      Miller’s contract is very affordable considering his production. He’s one of the best pure shooters in the league and has a pretty solid all-around game.

      10. Jason Richardson, Bobcats
      Age: 27
      EPG: 19.0
      Contract: three years, $39.9 M ($13.3 M per)
      His contract is little on the pricey side, but J-Rich returned to form this season to anchor the Bobcats offensively.

      11. Stephen Jackson, Warriors
      Age: 30
      EPG: 17.0
      Contract: two years, $14.8 M ($7.4 M)
      Jackson’s surly rep has him seriously underrated. His contract is a bargain for what he brings to the table, but he’s on the wrong side of 30.

      12. Michael Redd, Bucks
      Age: 28
      EPG: 18.4
      Contract: three years, $51.1 M ($17.0 M per)
      After seven straight seasons of improving his game, Redd took a step back last season. Improving his shot selection will be key as he tries to earn that big contract.

      13. Tracy McGrady, Rockets
      Age: 28
      EPG: 18.8
      Contract: two years, $44.3 M ($22.2 M per)
      I think it’s clear that you can’t build around T-Mac (and his huge salary) and expect to win in the playoffs. However, he is still one of the most dangerous shooting guards in the game, even though he has a creaky back.

      14. Randy Foye, Timberwolves
      Age: 24
      EPG: 11.8
      Contract: three years, $11.2 M ($3.7 M per)
      Foye bounced back from a knee injury to have a pretty solid season for the new look Timberwolves. He has a solid all-around game and nice upside.

      15. Vince Carter, Nets
      Age: 31
      EPG: 21.6
      Contract: three years, $48.8 M ($16.3 M per)
      Carter is getting on in years and since he relies on his athleticism, age may hurt him more than most. Also, his contract is long and expensive for a guy his age.

      16. Ronnie Brewer, Jazz
      Age: 23
      EPG: 13.3
      Contract: three years, $8.3 M ($2.8 M per)
      If he can ever fix that busted jump shot, watch out. Brewer has all the other tools to be an excellent player.

      17. Ben Gordon, Bulls
      Age: 25
      EPG: 14.8
      Contract: restricted free agent
      Gordon’s contract situation makes him tough to rank. He’s a phenomenal scorer, but is only average in other parts of the game. He turned down an extension that would have paid him $10 million a season, so if he signs a deal like that, he’ll be pricey for what he brings to the table.

      18. Ray Allen, Celtics
      Age: 32
      EPG: 15.9
      Contract: two years, $36.2 M ($18.1 M per)
      Allen is an NBA great whose star is fading fast. Even if he improves on his sketchy play in the postseason, his contract is tough to swallow.

      19. Jamal Crawford, Knicks
      Age: 28
      EPG: 16.1
      Contract: one year, $8.6 M
      Crawford needs to improve his shot selection, but there’s no doubt that the guy can score. He’s actually a nice fit as an off guard in Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo attack, so the 2008-09 season will go a long way to determine the direction his career is headed.

      20. Anthony Parker, Raptors
      Age: 32
      EPG: 13.5
      Contract: one year, $4.6 M
      The only problem with Parker’s all around game is his age. He’s a terrific shooter and is happy to do all the little things.

      21. John Salmons, Kings
      Age: 28
      EPG: 12.9
      Contract: three years, $16.4 M ($5.5 M per)
      Salmons is a versatile guy who can play three positions. He’s in his prime and his contract is very affordable.

      22. Rashad McCants, Timberwolves
      Age: 23
      EPG: 11.3
      Contract: two years, $6.2 M ($3.1 M per)
      Injuries limited his sophomore season, but McCants came back and averaged almost 15 points a game for the Timberwolves. He doesn’t do much else, but the guy can certainly shoot it.

      23. Nick Young, Wizards
      Age: 22
      EPG: 5.2
      Contract: four years, $9.6 M ($2.4 M per)
      Young is an athletic prospect who proved in his rookie season that he can shoot the ball from long range.

      24. J.R. Smith, Nuggets
      Age: 22
      EPG: 9.8
      Contract: restricted free agent
      Smith has a rep for having a bad attitude, but there’s no doubt that the guy can score. For the limited minutes he played, he was more efficient than Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson and Michael Redd.

      25. Kyle Lowry, Grizzlies
      Age: 22
      EPG: 10.7
      Contract: three years, $6.2 M ($2.1 M per)
      Lowry is caught in a backcourt logjam with Mike Miller, Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro and Javaris Crittenton. I should probably have him in with the point guards, but that ship has sailed (at least for this year). Still, Lowry is a reasonably productive player and is still a nice prospect.

      26. DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards
      Age: 27
      EPG: 10.7
      Contract: three years, $11.6 M ($3.9 M per)
      Known more for silly feuds with LeBron than his own game, Stevenson is a nice defender and a decent three-point shooter. But why did his FG% plunge from 46% last season to 39% this season?

      27. Daniel Gibson, Cavs
      Age: 22
      EPG: 10.3
      Contract: free agent
      Has Boobie’s rep surpassed his true ability? For a guy who gets over 30 minutes a game, his line is pretty thin (2.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists), but that might have to do more with LeBron than Boobie’s versatility. One thing’s for sure, the guy can shoot it from long range (44%).

      28. Kelenna Azubuike, Warriors
      Age: 24
      EPG: 9.1
      Contract: restricted free agent
      Azubuike and Mickael Pietrus are very similar players, but it was Azubuike who got more run late in the season. He rebounds well from the guard position and is a decent three-point shooter.

      29. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors
      Age: 26
      EPG: 8.7
      Contract: free agent
      Pietrus is an athletic, versatile wing who fell out of Don Nelson’s favor and was limited by a strained hamstring. His stock is low enough that he’ll likely be a good bargain for whichever team manages to sign him.

      30. Raja Bell, Suns
      Age: 31
      EPG: 12.0
      Contract: two years, $10.3 M ($5.2 M per)
      Bell is getting on in years, but he can still defend and shoot the three.

      Youngsters with potential: Sasha Vujacic, Lakers; Thabo Sefolosha, Bulls; Willie Green, Sixers; Martell Webster, Blazers

      Fading vets: Maurice Evans, Magic; Cuttino Mobley, Clippers; Bonzi Wells, Hornets; Morris Peterson, Hornets; Ricky Davis, Heat; Larry Hughes, Bulls; Marko Jaric, Timberwolves

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

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