Category: NBA Draft (Page 51 of 55)

Was the 1985 Draft Lottery really fixed?

Bill Simmons is all riled up over some video of the 1985 Draft Lottery that supposedly proves that it was indeed fixed. If you remember, the Knicks won the lottery (and the right to draft Patrick Ewing) in a time when the league’s marquee franchise was in dire trouble. I’ll let Simmons set it up:

Just in case they pull down the clip between the time we post this blog and the time you read this, here’s what happens: when an accountant from Ernst & Whinney throws the seven envelopes into the glass drum, he bangs the fourth one against the side of the drum to create a creased corner (we’ll explain why this is relevant in a second). Then he pulls a handle and turns the drum around a couple of times to “mix” the envelopes up. At the 5:23 mark of the clip, Stern heads over to the drum, unlocks it and awkwardly reaches inside for the first envelope (the No. 1 pick). He grabs three envelopes that are bunched together, pretends not to look (although he does) and flips the three envelopes so the one on the bottom ends up in his hand. Then he pulls that envelope out at the 5:32 mark … and, of course, it’s the Knicks envelope.

Now …

A reader named Greg K. from Fair Lawn, N.J. (I’d give you his whole name, but I don’t want him to be randomly found dead in his bathtub tonight), pointed this out to me: If you look closely right at the 5:31 mark, right as the commish yanks that Knicks envelope out, there’s a noticeable crease in the corner of the envelope. You can see it for a split-second — as he pulls the envelope up, it’s on the corner that’s pointing toward the bottom of the jar.

There’s a giant crease! It’s right there! The same one the accountant created as he was throwing the envelopes into the drum!

So you’re telling me that, out of the seven envelopes in that glass drum, during a lottery when the NBA desperately needed the most ballyhooed college center in 15 years to save the league’s marquee franchise, the commissioner coincidentally pulled out the envelope with a giant crease in the corner that happened to have the Knicks logo in it? This is the Zapruder film of sports tapes, isn’t it? Where’s Oliver Stone? Can we pull him out of the editing room for the “Alexander: The Really, REALLY Long Director’s Cut” DVD?

Here’s the video – watch it for yourself. You can skip ahead to the part when the accountant puts the envelopes in the hopper and see if he intentionally banged the envelope.

My dad always claimed that this lottery was fixed, and I never was sure if I believed him. After watching the video, I’m still not sure. As always, I do have a few comments:

(1) It’s weird to see Pat O’Brien reporting on something meaningful.

(2) If the Knicks’ envelope was really one the accountant (intentionally) banged, I have a theory why it was the fourth. If he knew the Knicks were in the fourth spot in his stack and there were seven envelopes in total, he could comfortably turn the stack over and the Knicks’ envelope would still be in the middle. There would be no chance of a mixup on the way to the stage.

(3) The Knicks’ envelope could have been creased as the envelopes jumped around in the hopper. The force of the fall is just as strong as (if not stronger than) the accountant’s bang. Just watch the envelopes as they get mixed. If they wanted to fix the lottery, they’d be better off pre-creasing the envelope or freezing it, like other conspiracy theorists have suggested.

What do you think?

McRoberts declares for draft

Yesterday, Duke sophomore Josh McRoberts declared himself eligible for the NBA Draft.

“I am extremely grateful for the opportunities that I have had here at Duke,” McRoberts said. “This was a difficult decision, but I feel it is the best one for me and my family at this point in time. I will miss Duke, the coaching staff and my teammates, but it has always been goal of mine to play in the NBA.”

I’m surprised by this decision. As the 2005-06 season closed, McRoberts was projected to be a top 5 to top 10 pick, but his play this season has been spotty and most of the mock drafts seem to have him in the 10-20 range. He can jump out of the gym and has great speed for a big man, but he hasn’t developed at Duke as much as expected. Christian Laettner and Danny Ferry were more productive with half of McRoberts’ natural ability. Scouts love his athleticism, but for him to be a star in the NBA, he’s going to have to develop a more polished post game and a good 15′ jumper. The Blue Devils couldn’t rely on either this season.

For Duke, this decision could be a blessing in disguise. Patrick Patterson, the #4 PF in the country and the top high school player still uncommitted, was perhaps waiting for McRoberts to declare before committing to Duke. He’s expected to make a decision soon.

Is Durant passing Oden?

Something weird is happening. What once was called “The Greg Oden Draft” has slowly but surely become “The Oden/Durant Draft” and if things keep trending they way they are, it could become “The Durant/Oden Draft.”

Scouts still love Oden’s blend of size, athleticism and potential, but Durant is becoming a fan favorite, and many armchair GMs feel that he should be the #1 pick in this summer’s draft.

There’s no doubt that Durant has had a better season. He’s averaging 25.1 points and 11.4 rebounds, while shooting 48.5% from the field and 42.9% from long range. His Longhorns are 22-8 and are ranked #14 in the ESPN/USA Today poll. He’s the frontrunner on the short list of Player of the Year candidates. His stock has never been higher.

Meanwhile, Oden struggled early with a broken right hand. But he’s using it more and more, and is averaging 15.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.5 blocks on the season. His Buckeyes are 27-3 and are ranked #1 in the nation heading into this weekend’s Big Ten tournament.

Durant is polished offensively and is ready to be a star on the NBA level right now. He has great range, a pretty jumper, and can get a good shot just about any time he wants to. His ability to create his own shot is going to pay dividends at the next level.

It’s going to take Oden a few years to develop some post moves. All he has right now is a point blank dunk and an occasional jump hook. There has been some talk about his somewhat lackadaisical attitude, but I think he’s just a gentle guy. Maybe that’s good for his long-term prospects, maybe that’s bad, but I don’t think he’s lazy. This is a guy who learned how to shoot free throws left-handed at a 61.4% clip. The guy’s got a good work ethic.

I’ll need to see more of both guys before I’ll have a good sense about which guy should go #1. But right now, I’d draft based on need. Which means that if I’m Jerry West and I’ve got Pau Gasol on the roster, I’m seriously considering drafting Durant.

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