Category: Fantasy Football (Page 269 of 324)

I’m in several (too many) fantasy football leagues this season and, unfortunately, I didn’t land a top 2 pick in any of them. That means I’m going to miss out on LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson, the consensus top two picks in 2007. In a traditional serpentine draft (1-12 in odd rounds, 12-1 in even rounds), those that are drafting in the back half of round one are at such a disadvantage. Sure, they get to pick early in the second round, but the difference between RB13 and RB20 isn’t as great as the difference between LT and, say, Rudi Johnson or Laurence Maroney. Also, the Jackson and Tomlinson owners get to pick first in the third round, which only serves to enhance their advantage over their less fortunate peers.

Here’s a solution: reverse the serpentine after the first two rounds. Go 1-12 in the first round, 12-1 in the second round and then 12-1 again in the third round before continuing with a traditional serpentine for the rest of the draft. In this scenario, the fourth round would go 1-12, the fifth 12-1, and so on.

According to Antsports average draft position (ADP), here is team #1 versus team #12 after three rounds (for comparison purposes, assume the two teams only select RBs and WRs):

Team #1: LT, Cedric Benson, Andre Johnson
Team #12: Rudi Johnson, Steve Smith, Thomas Jones

Benson and a healthy Jones hold about the same value, so we’re really comparing LT and AJ versus Rudi and Smith. The difference between LT and Rudi is significant but Smith holds a big advantage over AJ.

Has anyone played in a league that utilizes this format? If so, how did it work out? I think the deciding factor is how much people want each pick. Right now, owners are clamoring for a top 2 pick, because they know it gives them an advantage. If this format is utilized, and a guy picking 12th gets picks #12, #13 and #25, it would diffuse some of that desire for a top pick.

Keeper league owners who targeted guys like Joseph Addai and Cedric Benson last season are reaping the rewards this year. What players should keeper leaguers try to nab this year with an eye toward 2008? In my latest column, I discuss 10 keeper targets that include Calvin Johnson, Vernon Davis and LT’s backup.

(sigh)

Larry Johnson signed a six-year deal with the Chiefs and is expected to join his teammates at the team’s training camp in River Falls, WI sometime this week.

Fantasy owners can comfortably take Johnson with the third pick overall, though in PPR leagues, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush are still attractive options. Now that he’s in camp, LJ should project to 1400-1500 rushing yards and 12-14 TD, along with 40 receptions for 350 yards and a couple of scores.

For those of you drafting today, you might want to pass on Travis Henry. He injured his knee last night and is to undergo an MRI to confirm that the injury is just a sprained MCL instead of something more serious. Still, sprained MCLs can take a while to heal (up to a month), so this is a definite downgrade for Henry, and an upgrade for Mike Bell and Cecil Sapp.

Complicating matters, Denver head coach Mike Shanahan (a.k.a. Skeletor) said that Henry could be back as early as next week. Every seasoned fantasy football owner knows that Skeletor loves to mess with our heads.

Update (2:50 PM PT): The MRI came back negative, so there was no structural damage done to the knee. He has a knee sprain, which means he may be out a week to a month, depending on the severity. He should be good to go for Week 1, but there is no guarantee.