Last week, I listed T.J. Ford as a fantasy sleeper and in his regular season debut, he put up 16 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds in a 117-108 win over the Sixers. I hate to toot my own horn, but…TOOT!
Ford won’t play like this consistently, but if he can average 12-15 points and 6-8 assists, and Andrew Bogut comes along at a reasonable pace, the Bucks will be a dangerous team in the East.
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ESPN is reporting that the Milwaukee Bucks have traded swingman Desmond Mason and their 2006 first round pick to the New Orleans Hornets for power forward/center Jamaal Magloire. It’s possible that the Bucks will play Magloire alongside Andrew Bogut, with newly acquired Bobby Simmons at small forward. This would give the Bucks a starting lineup of T.J Ford, Michael Redd, Simmons, Magloire and Bogut. If Bogut progresses quickly and Ford continues to play well, this could be a formidable fivesome.
Mason will step into the starting small forward spot for the Hornets, playing alongside Chris Paul and J.R. Smith, giving New Orleans an exciting trio that will look to push the ball. Chris Andersen and P.J. Brown will likely round out the starting five.
In the world of fantasy sports, anyone can make solid picks in the first few rounds. It’s the middle to late rounds where championship squads are born. Here are a few sleepers (all being selected, on average, in the 8th round or later) that I’m trying to pick as the draft wears on.
GUARDS
T.J. Ford, MIL
After a terrific career at the University of Texas, Ford was drafted #8 overall by a Milwaukee Bucks team in need of a point guard. Known to be lightning quick and a great distributor, the two big knocks on him are his size and lack of shooting touch. He didn’t do anything in his rookie season to dispel either, shooting just .384 from the field before going down with a season-ending spinal cord injury. But the injury might have been a blessing in disguise for Ford, who rehabbed with former NBA coach/player John Lucas. Lucas wisely decided to reinvent Ford’s jumpshot so that Ford wouldn’t have to go to the hole to be a scoring threat. Fast forward to this preseason and, through four games, he’s averaging 13 points and six assists while shooting .474 from the field. I think those numbers are reasonable expectations for the season, putting him at the level of Jamal Tinsley and Luke Ridnour, who are both going a few rounds ahead of him.
Jason Williams, MIA
I’m not a big fan of all the extra flash in his game, and he seems like a mental lightweight (as evidence, I submit his official picture here. But one thing is for sure: he’s a talented ballhandler. That’s not to say he’s efficient – his career assist to turnover ratio (2.7) is worse than converted shooting guard Jason Terry’s ratio (2.9) last season – but he can handle the ball. After stints in Sacramento and Memphis, Williams has landed in Miami and is slated to start alongside Dwayne Wade and Shaquille O’Neal for the Heat. It is unclear if this lineup is going to work in the long term, but if Williams is able to play the role of the third or fourth option on offense, he should be able to rack up a ton of assists and improve on his career .390 field goal percentage. Thus far in the preseason, he hasn’t shown this potential, so he’s still considered a high risk pick. If he manages to fit in, I think 11 points and seven assists are within reach.
Bonzi Wells, SAC
After a couple of lackluster seasons in Memphis, Wells finds himself in a contract year and starting for the Sacramento Kings. He supposedly going to get 40 minutes a game and if he receives that kind of playing time, he should be able to improve on his career averages of 12.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg and 2.2 apg. Since he’s being drafted on average in the tenth round, that’s pretty good production. There is nothing quite like a contract year to get a malcontent like Wells motivated to perform.
Raja Bell, PHO
If you’ve already drafted, there’s a good chance that Bell is still in your free agent pool. This offseason, the Suns let Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson sign elsewhere, and lost Amare Stoudemire for at least four months of the season. That’s an awful lot of points to replace. They signed Bell and have him as their starting shooting guard, and in six preseason games, he’s averaging 14 points, four boards and three assists. If Phoenix continues to have success with their up-tempo offense, he should be able to take these numbers well into the season. Not bad for a guy you can get in the final round of your draft.
FORWARDS
Josh Childress, ATL
Picked sixth overall in the 2004 NBA draft, Childress had the opportunity to play and improve in his rookie season with the Hawks. Over the last eleven games of last season, he averaged 16 points, seven boards and three assists. The free agent signing of Joe Johnson will surely change the dynamics in Atlanta, but there will still be ample minutes for Childress. Through five preseason games, he’s averaging 15 points, five boards and three assists per, while shooting .617 from the field. The accuracy should regress, but the other numbers should tick up a bit as he gets regular season minutes.
Stromile Swift, HOU
The Rockets signed Swift in the offseason to act as a hard-nosed, rebounding compliment to Yao Ming. At the moment, it appears that he will be coming off the bench, but it is expected that he will receive a good amount of time playing behind Juwan Howard. In his last three seasons in Memphis, he didn’t receive more than 22.1 minutes over the course of the season, but he should get a minimum of 25 in Houston. In the twenty games last season where he played that many minutes, he averaged 15 points, seven boards and more than two blocks. His career FG % (.468) is less than spectacular but his FT % (.712) isn’t bad for a big man. He is also eligible at center in many fantasy leagues, which only adds to his value.
Al Jefferson, BOS
Jefferson entered the 2004 draft straight out of high school and was promptly selected #15 overall by the Boston Celtics. With only Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount ahead of him on the depth chart, he figures to see a lot more minutes this season. He is the team’s best low post threat and should make a nice compliment to Paul Pierce and Ricky Davis on the wings. He has appeared in two preseason games and posted a total of 18 points and seven boards in 36 minutes. If he gets 30 minutes a game, he should score in the 15-17 range while grabbing 7-8 rebounds.
Michael Sweetney, CHI
Obtained from the Knicks in the offseason, Sweetney is slated to start at power forward for the Bulls. It appears that Chicago got a nice player in Sweetney, and he should be the team’s main low post threat as center Tyson Chandler isn’t much of an option on offense. Last season’s All-Star break, Sweetney averaged nine points and six rebounds on .530 shooting. Through six preseason games, he’s averaging 11 points and six boards. He’s also a good free throw shooter for a big man – he’s nailed .861 of his attempts in the preseason.
Josh Howard, DAL
Howard inexplicably fell to #29 in the 2003 draft, where the Mavericks jumped on him. Apparently, being the ACC Player of the Year doesn’t hold as much water as it used to. Regardless, Howard has turned into a good pro, averaging 13 points and six boards last season while logging heavy minutes for the Mavs. With the departure of Michael Finley, I suspect Howard’s scoring to increase some while he remains the team’s perimeter stopper.
CENTERS
Zaza Pachulia, ATL
The Hawks signed Pachulia in the offseason to be their starting center and through five preseason games, he’s averaging 13 points and six boards. A hard-worker/overachiever type, Pachulia gives maximum effort when he plays. He’s not very athletic, so he won’t give you very many blocks, but he’s a great free throw shooter (.746) at the center position. Since opportunity is a big part of the fantasy success equation, Zaza should be a good fantasy backup as the season wears on.
Kwame Brown, LAL
Ah, good ol’ Kwame Brown. Every year, countless experts list him as a sleeper and each year he doesn’t fail to disappoint. He had a rough go of it in Washington and I think the change of scenery will do him good. He’s slated to start at power forward for the Lakers, but is also eligible at center in most fantasy leagues. The Lakers will need him to produce and I think Phil Jackson will be able to coax out most of his potential. Over the first six preseason games, he’s averaging 11 points and six boards and I expect those numbers to grow to 13 and seven before the season is through.
Joel Przybilla, POR
As a Bucks fan I loath writing this paragraph, but if the guy is a sleeper a guy is a sleeper, and you deserve to know about him. After being drafted #9 in the 2000 NBA draft, it was safe to write of Przybilla as a bust. He did next to nothing in Milwaukee, but after being traded to Portland, he had a renaissance of sorts, averaging nine points, 10 boards and three blocks for the Trail Blazers after the All Star break. His career free throw shooting (.473) will kill you, but his field goal percentage (.533) is terrific. So what’s the key to his success? He admitted he was lazy and got a trainer. After dropping 45 pounds he became a beast on the boards. His increased spryness also enabled him to block more shots. This guy is a great pick in the 8th round if you need a center.
It’s fantasy hoops time, and while it is usually overshadowed by fantasy football, it is still a fun pastime. Lineups can either be submitted daily or weekly, and most leagues use several stat categories in rotisserie or head-to-head formats.
Here are my top ten fantasy hoops players, assuming that the following stat categories are important:
FG%, FT%, Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, 3-Pointers, Turnovers
Off we go…
1. Lebron James – CLE
2004-05 stats: 27.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 7.2 apg, 2.2 spg, 0.7 bpg, .472 FG%, .351 3P%, .750 FT%
There is a lot of debate in the fantasy basketball community about who should be picked first overall. For me, it’s virtually a tie between King James and KG. I’m listing James first because of his youth and his potential. Last year, he took a big step forward from his rookie season increasing his numbers in almost every important category. In fact, the only statistic where he didn’t make an improvement was his FT%, which declined from .754 to .750 – big whoop. If you have the first pick you can’t go wrong with either guy you should probably choose whomever gives you more roster flexibility in your particular league (i.e. can James be played as a guard and/or a forward?) There are a lot of new faces around Lebron, but the Cavs are still his team, so I don’t see his numbers declining substantially.
1a. Kevin Garnett – MIN
22.2 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 5.7 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.4 bpg, .502 FG%, .240 3P%, .811 FT%
Last year marked KG’s seventh straight season where he averaged 20+ ppg, 10+ rpg, while never shooting less than .460. He won’t make many 3’s for you, but he’s a stud in every other category. Although it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 29 and age shouldn’t begin to diminish his skills for another couple of years. There was a lot of changeover for the Timberwolves this offseason, with disruptive guards Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell jettisoned for younger talent. As a result, Garnett will probably be pressed to score more, so I forsee a slight rise in his points while his FG% will probably drop a few points. Regardless, another MVP-caliber season is in store for KG.
3. Shawn Marion – PHX
19.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.5 bpg, .479 FG%, .334 3P%, .833 FT%
Marion is another model of consistency. Last year marked his fourth straight season where he averaged 19+ ppg and 9+ rpg. Like Garnett and James, Marion will help you in just about every category – his weak spot is assists, but he’ll still give you two a game. It’s unclear how Marion’s numbers will be affected by the absence of Amare Stoudemire for a majority of the season, but he averaged 19 and 9 while Stoudemire was still in high school, so I’m expecting those numbers again. If anything, I see his scoring rising a bit to compensate for Amare’s absence.
4. Dirk Nowitzki – DAL
26.1 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.5 bpg, .459 FG%, .399 3P%, .869 FT%
Nowitzki is another sure thing. Over the past five seasons, he’s never averaged fewer than 21.8 ppg or 8.7 rpg. He kills from the strip – nailing a career .856 of his free throws. There’s just one thing that worries me about him: in the playoffs, he had a lot of trouble scoring when covered by rangy, athletic small forward (Tracy McGrady). Teams will be sure to copy Houston’s blueprint, but I expect that Nowitzki has spent part of this summer working on his post moves in case that happens. If he has center eligibility in your league it makes him a no-brainer at #4.
5. Tracy McGrady – HOU
25.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.7 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.7 bpg, .431 FG%, .326 3P%, .774 FT%
In his first season with Houston, McGrady proved that he could still produce playing with a big man. McGrady is another sure thing – he’s never averaged less than 25.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, or 4.6 apg over the last five seasons. He’s also been quite durable over that span, missing no more than seven games in four of those seasons (he missed 15 games in 2003-04, but a few of those were a part of the trade that took him from Orlando to Houston). In most leagues he can be played at both SG and SF, which only adds to his value. Entering his second year of Jeff Van Gundy’s system, I see his game getting more efficient, with his scoring staying about the same but with a better shooting percentage.
6. Kobe Bryant – LAL
27.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.0 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.8 bpg, .433 FG%, .339 3P%, .816 FT%
The only things separating Bryant and McGrady are McGrady’s fantasy versatility and Bryant’s tendency to miss games – 33 over the past two seasons. Bryant will once again be asked (or ask himself) to carry the load for the Lakers and his FG% should stay in the low 40’s. The Lakers are planning to use newcomers Aaron McKie at the point and Kwame Brown at power forward, so it is unclear what affect – if any – this will have on Bryant’s numbers. He should still be in for a fine statistical season.
7. Tim Duncan – SAS
20.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 2.6 bpg, .496 FG%, .333 3P%, .670 FT%
If Duncan is eligible at center in your league, I’d probably take him ahead of McGrady and Bryant given the relative dearth of talent in the middle. Like Kobe, he has been a bit injury prone recently, missing a total of 29 games over the last two seasons. But the Big Fundamental has been consistent, averaging 20+ ppg and 11+ rpg in each of his eight seasons. Like Garnett, he’s 29, but his game doesn’t rely on the physical talents that tend to diminish with age, so I don’t see his game declining anytime soon. His Achilles heel is his free throw shooting, which is woefully inconsistent, settling in at .670 last season.
8. Dwayne Wade – MIA
24.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.1 bpg, .478 FG%, .289 3P%, .762 FT%
All else being equal, I’d take Wade along with McGrady and Bryant, but with all the additions to the Heat this offseason (Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, James Posey, etc), there is a lot of chaos surrounding Wade at the moment. With Williams on board running the point, it would seem reasonable to expect Wade’s assists to go down. With Walker chucking up shots from all over the floor, Wade’s scoring numbers could go down. I still expect a great season, but right now there is just a bit too much uncertainty about his role to take him ahead of McGrady, Bryant or Duncan.
9. Gilbert Arenas – WAS
25.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.1 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.3 bpg, .431 FG%, .365 3P%, .814 FT%
Last season, Arenas blossomed into one of the best all around guards in the NBA. He lost backcourt mate Larry Hughes to Cleveland, but the Wizards added Antonio Daniels and Caron Butler to pick up the slack, so I don’t see any reason why Arenas can’t match last year’s stats. Sure, I’d like a higher shooting percentage (that goes for you too, Kobe and Tracy) but getting 25, 5, and 5 on a nightly basis makes it a bit easier to swallow.
10. Allen Iverson – PHI
30.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 8.0 apg, 2.4 spg, 0.1 bpg, .424 FG%, .308 3P%
The Sixers moved AI to the point last year and he responded with one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Who else is going to give you 30 points, 8 dimes, 4 boards and two thefts a game? The two knocks on Iverson are his low shooting percentage and his tendency to miss games. He’s a career .418 shooter, but last season he raised that up to a somewhat respectable .424. If he would only reduce the number of three point attempts, that number would rise. And he’s not durable – he averages 15 missed games per season, but only missed seven last year. He’s definitely a little risky, but if he doesn’t miss too many games, having him in your lineup will pay big dividends.
Honorable Mention:
11. Elton Brand – LAC
20.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.1 bpg, .503 FG%, .752 FT%
You can write him in for a double-double just about every night and he’ll give you a nice shooting percentage and a couple of blocks and assists to boot. It’s hard to find that kind of consistency these days, but Brand’s work ethic and all around good play make him one of my favorite fantasy and real-world players.
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