Category: Fantasy Basketball (Page 266 of 274)

With the right combination of talent and opportunity, a rookie can be quite productive in his first season in the league. Generally, the top players go to teams with the greatest need for their services, so it’s safe to assume that the Rookie of the Year will be a top 10 draft pick. But each year, a few non-top 10 picks win rotation spots and manage to contribute. From a fantasy standpoint, it’s unwise to spend picks in the first few rounds on a rookie, but those owners that grabbed Chris Paul in the middle rounds last season laughed all the way to the playoffs. Here is a list of rookies that will make an impact this season, in order of talent and opportunity. The 2006-07 ROY is probably on this list.

Brandon Roy, POR (selected #6 in the NBA draft)
Roy was labeled one of the most NBA-ready players in the 2006 draft, and he’ll get plenty of minutes playing for a very bad Blazers team. In the preseason, he has averaged 15.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

Rudy Gay, MEM (#8)
Gay has been playing well in the preseason, averaging 14.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 3PT in five preseason games. Gay is sure to get minutes considering the Grizzlies’ limited options.

Andrea Bargnani, TOR (#1)
The first pick in the draft has looked pretty good in the preseason, averaging 11.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 3PT per game. The Raptors want to implement the Suns’ frenetic offensive pace, so Bargnani will see minutes backing up Morris Peterson and playing power forward alongside Chris Bosh.

Shelden Williams, ATL (#5)
Williams has backed up the PF and C spots in Atlanta, and in the preseason, he’s averaged 8.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game.

Rajon Rondo, BOS (#21)
Rondo has been terrific in the preseason, averaging 12.7 points, 5.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals in six games. But it isn’t clear what kind of minutes he’s going to get behind Sebastian Telfair. The C’s paid a high price for Telfair, so don’t be surprised if the two split minutes. Delonte West also factors in, but he’ll be playing a lot of off guard this season.

Adam Morrison, CHA (#3)
Morrison will struggle at times, but he should get plenty of minutes in Charlotte. In the preseason, he has averaged 9.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 0.8 3PT, while shooting just 31.8% from the field.

Tyrus Thomas, CHI (#4)
Thomas is more NBA-ready than anticipated, but he’s going to find it tough to get minutes in Chicago’s crowded rotation. Still, in the preseason, he has averaged 10.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 1.8 blocks per game.

Randy Foye, MIN (#7)
After tearing up the summer league, Foye hasn’t been very impressive in the preseason, averaging 6.5 points (on 40% shooting), 1.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.3 assists per game. The team is stressing defense, so Trenton Hassell has been getting the starts. It looks like Foye will share time with Hassell, Mike James, Marko Jaric and Ricky Davis at the guard spots.

A majority of fantasy basketball leagues will draft in the next week, so I thought it would be a good time to update the tiers for each position. The movement of players was a result of their stellar/crappy play in the preseason or of a clearer picture of how their respective teams plan to use them. The number in the far right column is the lower of that player’s Average Draft Position in either Yahoo or ESPN live drafts. Players listed in green are a particularly good value for their ADP. You can see the original tiers here.

Below are the center tiers. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.

Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Chris Bosh is considered a power forward in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play center. Be sure to check out the PG tiers , the SG tiers, the SF tiers and the PF tiers as well.

TIER ONE: Yao Ming, (Chris Bosh), (Tim Duncan)
Yao Ming is strong in every category except for steals. The return of Tracy McGrady might cause a bit of an adjustment period, but Yao proved last season that he can carry a team on his back…Chris Bosh might be ready to explode. He averaged 22.5 points and 9.2 rebounds per game last season, and that might be a baseline if the Raptors successfully implement the Suns’ wide-open offensive scheme. He’s solid in every category except for steals and threes, making him a great second-round pick…Tim Duncan battled injuries last season and still averaged 18.6 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. He’s no longer a no-brainer first round pick, but he’s a very solid, versatile option in the second round.

TIER TWO: Brad Miller, (Jermaine O’Neal), (Boris Diaw), Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Brad Miller offers great a great FT% and a ton of assists, and doesn’t hurt you in any category, except for blocks. Expect more of the same this season, making him a very safe pick in the third round…Jermaine O’Neal is excited about how the Pacers are going to speed things up this season, which should result in better play. Except for steals, his numbers are quite solid and I expect him to average 10+ boards with a move back to the center position…If Boris Diaw is eligible to play PF or C in your league, his value soars. After the All-Star break, Boris Diaw averaged 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists while shooting 57% from the field. The big question – how will the return of Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas affect his playing time? He may not play 35 minutes a game again this season, but the Suns will find a way to get him 30…The Bulls acquired Ben Wallace to do what he’s always done: play defense, block shots and rebound. His FT% is awful, but he doesn’t shoot enough free throws to completely kill fantasy teams in that category. His rebounds, steals and blocks are amongst the best at his position…Zydrunas Ilgauskas offers great FT%, points and blocks, but his role seems to be diminishing as LeBron James continues to improve. Still, in the 5th round, he offers great value.

TIER THREE: Chris Kaman, (Mehmet Okur), Shaquille O’Neal, Marcus Camby, (Amare Stoudemire), (Carlos Boozer), (Pau Gasol)
Chris Kaman has improved his scoring, rebounding, blocks, steals, FG% and FT% in each of his three years in the league, making him a very solid pick in the 5th…His FG% and steals are pretty poor, but Mehmet Okur is strong in just about every other category, making him a very solid pick in the 4th round and a steal in the 5th…Shaquille O’Neal has a tendency to miss games (15.4 per season, over the last five) and his FT% (46.9%) is a killer, especially when he’s shooting eight or more a game. If you select Shaq, you’re pretty much forfeiting the category. If that’s your plan, and you’ve already grabbed a guy like Dwight Howard, then Shaq wouldn’t be a bad center…Fantasy-wise, with his blocks and rebounds, Marcus Camby would be right up there with Yao Ming if not for his injury history. He has never played more than 72 games in a season, and has averaged only 50.4 games played in the last five seasons…Obviously, the big question about Amare Stoudemire is the health of his knees. He’s struggled some this preseason, but is playing. I just think there is way too much risk there for a guy going in the second round. Let someone else take him while you grab Jermaine O’Neal or Lamar Odom at a fraction of the risk…Carlos Boozer doesn’t block many shots, but the rest of his numbers are pretty solid, including some great FG%, points, rebounds and assists (for a PF). His hamstrings appear to be good to go and he seems happy as camp progresses, so he provides adequate value in the 4th…When do you draft Pau Gasol? The guy is a Top 20 talent when healthy, but he’s going to miss four months, which means he should be back in mid-January, returning for just three months of the season. Currently, he’s going in the middle of the 5th, which isn’t a bad value there if you feel good about your first four picks. He’s a guy that can really help in a playoff run.

TIER FOUR: (Emeka Okafor), (Nenad Krstic), (Channing Frye), Samuel Dalembert, Tyson Chandler, (Chris Wilcox), (Andrew Bogut), Eddy Curry
Emeka Okafor is a double-double guy when healthy, but he still hasn’t said his ankle is 100%, so in the 5th round, I’d probably let someone else take the risk…Nenad Krstic broke out last season, averaging 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game after the All-Star break. His blocks and steals are below average, but the rest of his numbers are good…Channing Frye averaged 15.6 points and 7.9 rebounds in 14 games as a starter last season. He’s expected to start at PF for the Knicks and should benefit from Isiah Thomas’ arrival as head coach…Hampered by injures for most of last season, Samuel Dalembert was a disappointment, but he’s been working with Moses Malone in camp. He offers a ton of blocks, decent rebounding and a nice FG%…Tyson Chandler has landed in New Orleans and will get a fresh start after a less than stellar stint with the Bulls. He’s targeting a double-double season, but his numbers suggest that offensively, that will be a problem. He’s reportedly developing a face up game, and if he can start knocking that shot down, watch out. Right now, fantasy-wise, his points and FT% are holding him back…After he was traded to the Sonics, Chris Wilcox averaged 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 59.2% from the floor and 78.7% from the free throw line. Don’t expect those percentages to continue, but Wilcox should provide stability inside for Seattle…Andrew Bogut is going to be out until late November/early December with a lower leg sprain he suffered in training camp. He could still average a double-double this season, but this will definitely hamper his progress…In 68 games as the Knicks’ starting center, Eddy Curry averaged 13.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 56.6% from the field. He’s weak in blocks and steals, and is a black hole (0.3 assists per game), but Isiah Thomas is excited about using him this season.

TIER FIVE: (Zaza Pachulia), Nazr Mohammed, Primoz Brezec, (Kendrick Perkins), (Kwame Brown), (Darko Milicic), Erick Dampier, Joel Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire, Alonzo Mourning, (Kurt Thomas), (Nene), (Ike Diogu), (P.J Brown)
Zaza Pachulia had a pretty good season last year, but the Hawks brought in Lorenzen Wright and drafted Shelden Williams, so he may not be the starter for long…Nazr Mohammed was signed to fill the large shoes of Ben Wallace, and played well in the Pistons’ preseason debut, scoring 16 points and grabbing eight boards. He’ll get plenty of minutes if he continues to play like that. Keep an eye on his numbers in the preseason…Primoz Brezec doesn’t offer much in the way of blocks, steals or assists, but his points and rebounds are all right, while his FG% and FT% are pretty good for a center. It looks like the Bobcats might play Okafor at power forward, which would open up a ton of minutes at center…Kendrick Perkins showed some flashes in his third season, averaging 7.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 37 games as the Celtics’ starting center. The team acquired Theo Ratliff, so the two will battle it out this preseason…Kwame Brown has all the physical tools to be a great center in the league, except good hands. In 32 games as the team’s starting center, he averaged 10.7 points and 7.8 rebounds, but his FT% and blocks aren’t up to snuff…I really thought Darko Milicic would be a strong sleeper heading into the season, but Magic head coach Brian Hill plans on starting Tony Battie alongside Dwight Howard. Of course, this could just be a motivational tactic…According to Avery Johnson, Erick Dampier has been a “monster” in camp…Joel Przybilla and Jamaal Magloire are battling for the starting center spot in Portland’s lineup, but will probably split time, limiting either guy’s value…Mourning is a monster shot blocker and provides a great FG% but the rest of his numbers aren’t too hot. If Shaq can’t play for any reason, Mourning’s value takes a big jump…Kurt Thomas missed much of last season with a foot injury, but only averaged 8.6 points and 7.8 rebounds in 53 with the Suns last season. If Amare Stoudemire makes a strong return, Thomas won’t see a ton of minutes…Nene is coming of a knee injury but has shown flashes of talent in the past. It looks like he’ll start the season backing up Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin…Don Nelson seems to really like the idea of playing Mike Dunleavy at power forward, so Ike Diogu might find that minutes are hard to come by. He has shown flashes of ability, but hasn’t been consistent enough to earn big minutes…P.J. Brown is solid, yet unspectacular. He’s a good player to plug in when injuries hit.

TIER SIX: Francisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, Brendan Haywood, (Mark Blount), (Chris Mihm), Adonal Foyle, (Jeff Foster), (Melvin Ely), (Nick Collison), (Raef LaFrentz), (Theo Ratliff), (Tony Battie)
It looks like Francisco Elson is next in the long line of centers that the Spurs have brought in to start alongside Tim Duncan. Fabricio Oberto is also in the picture, but it looks as if Elson will win the starting job…Brendan Haywood showed some flashes in the playoffs, but thus far in his career, he’s been nothing but a spot starter fantasy-wise…Chris Mihm is still having trouble with the ankle injury that cost him 24 games last season. He’s a decent fantasy center when healthy…Magic head coach Brian Hill plans to start Tony Battie at center this season, limiting Dark Milicic’s value in the process. Battie becomes a spot starter if he gets 20+ minutes a game.

Below are the power forward tiers. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.

Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Kevin Garnett is considered a power forward in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play small forward. Look for the C tiers tomorrow. Be sure to check out the PG tiers , the SG tiers and the SF tiers.

TIER ONE: (Kevin Garnett), Elton Brand, (Shawn Marion), Dirk Nowitzki
Kevin Garnett is still a fantasy stud, bringing good to great numbers in every statistical category except for threes…Elton Brand leads Shawn Marion in three statistical categories – points, assists and blocks, while FG% and FT% are pretty close. Marion’s rebounds will dip if Amare Stoudemire makes a healthy return, making Brand the slightly safer choice at power forward after KG…Dirk Nowitzki enters the conversation as well. He brings outstanding scoring and FT%, while his assists and rebounds are also pretty good. When compared to Brand and Marion, Nowitzki loses ground in FG% and steals, but it’s really a matter of preference with those three.

TIER TWO: (Chris Bosh), (Tim Duncan)
Chris Bosh might be ready to explode. He averaged 22.5 points and 9.2 rebounds per game last season, and that might be a baseline if the Raptors successfully implement the Suns’ wide-open offensive scheme. He’s solid in every category except for steals and threes, making him a great second-round pick, but he may already be gone…Tim Duncan battled injuries last season and still averaged 18.6 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. He’s no longer a no-brainer first round pick, but he’s a very solid, versatile option in the second round.

TIER THREE: (Jermaine O’Neal), (Lamar Odom), (Boris Diaw), Dwight Howard, Rasheed Wallace, (Andrei Kirilenko)
Jermaine O’Neal is excited about how the Pacers are going to speed things up this season, which should result in better play. Except for steals, his numbers are quite solid and I expect him to average 10+ boards with a move back to the center position…Lamar Odom still hurts you with his FT%, but he improved his FG%, three-point shooting and assists last season, becoming one of the league’s most consistent players. He lost his infant son over the summer, so there’s no telling where his mind is at right now. I’m not a Laker fan, but I’m rooting for Odom this year…If Boris Diaw is eligible to play PF or C in your league, his value soars. After the All-Star break, Diaw averaged 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists while shooting 57% from the field. The big question – how will the returns of Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas affect his playing time? He may not play 35 minutes a game again this season, but the Suns will find a way to get him 30…Dwight Howard is a monster on the boards and in FG%, but his FT% is atrocious. Other than assists, he’s pretty solid elsewhere. Like Shaq, you’re putting yourself in a big hole with his free throw shooting, but if you are okay with forfeiting that category each week, Howard is your man…With the departure of Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace will be asked to do more rebounding this year, especially if Nazr Mohammed doesn’t work out at center. Other than FG%, the rest of his numbers are pretty strong…Yes, Andrei Kirilenko stuffs the stat sheet, but the guy is a serious injury risk – he missed 54 games in the last two seasons. I have a very tough time taking a guy with that kind of history in the second round, even if he does block 3.2 shots per game.

TIER FOUR: David West, (Antawn Jamison), (Mehmet Okur), (Amare Stoudemire), (Carlos Boozer), (Pau Gasol), Chris Webber
David West started out on the waiver wire of many a fantasy league last season, eventually becoming one of the biggest surprises of the year. He is strong in FG%, FT% and points, while the rest of his numbers are pretty solid, except for assists. He’ll probably lose a few shots to Peja Stojakovic, but his FG% should rise as a result. He’s currently going in the 6th round, which is a steal…Antawn Jamison lost some accuracy from the field last season, but his scoring, rebounding and threes all increased. His blocks are pathetic, but the rest of his numbers are quite solid…His FG% and steals are pretty poor, but Mehmet Okur is strong in just about every other category, making him a very solid pick in the 4th round and a steal in the 5th…Obviously, the big question about Amare Stoudemire is the health of his knees. He’s struggled some this preseason, but is playing. I just think there is way too much risk there for a guy going in the second round. Let someone else take him while you grab Jermaine O’Neal or Lamar Odom at a fraction of the risk…Carlos Boozer doesn’t block many shots, but the rest of his numbers are pretty solid, including some great FG%, points, rebounds and assists (for a PF). His hamstrings appear to be good to go and he seems happy as camp progresses, so he provides adequate value in the 4th…When do you draft Pau Gasol? The guy is a Top 20 talent when healthy, but he’s going to miss four months, which means he should be back in mid-January, returning for just three months of the season. Currently, he’s going in the middle of the 5th, which isn’t a bad value if you feel good about your first four picks. He’s a guy that can really help in a playoff run…He’s an injury risk, but when Chris Webber plays, he’s pretty productive. His FG% is his only major flaw, but he’s getting on in years and a dropoff has to be getting close.

TIER FIVE: (Emeka Okafor), (Nenad Krstic), (Channing Frye), Troy Murphy, (Chris Wilcox), (Charlie Villanueva), (Andrew Bogut)
Emeka Okafor is a double-double guy when healthy, but he still hasn’t said his ankle is 100%, so in the 5th round, I’d probably let someone else take the risk…Nenad Krstic broke out last season, averaging 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game after the All-Star break. His blocks and steals are below average, but the rest of his numbers are good…Channing Frye averaged 15.6 points and 7.9 rebounds in 14 games as a starter last season. He’s expected to start at PF for the Knicks and should benefit from Isiah Thomas’ arrival as head coach…Troy Murphy has averaged a 14+ points and 10+ rebounds each of the last two seasons and that trend should continue as new head coach moves him to center. His FG% (43.3%) and blocks (.4) were awful last season, but the rest of his numbers are solid…After he was traded to the Sonics, Chris Wilcox averaged 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 59.2% from the floor and 78.7% from the free throw line. Don’t expect those percentages to continue, but Wilcox should provide stability inside for Seattle…How will Charlie Villanueva fit in with the Bucks? He did play better over the second half of the season, but he did all that scoring on a bad team. He’ll be the third or fourth option in Milwaukee and won’t be shooting the three as much…Andrew Bogut is going to be out until late November/early December with a lower leg sprain he suffered in training camp. He could still average a double-double this season, but this injury will definitely hamper his progress.

TIER SIX: Kenyon Martin, Zach Randolph, (Al Harrington), (Danny Granger), (Marvin Williams), (Zaza Pachulia)
Kenyon Martin has patched things up with head coach George Karl, but are his knees better? If so, he could be a surprise fantasy-wise…Zach Randolph offers points, rebounds and loads of off-court incidents. He’s going in the 7th and the 8th, which is too high for a guy with his baggage…Al Harrington returns to Indiana to play power forward (Jermaine O’Neal is expected to play center). Harrington brings good points and rebounds, but the rest of his stats are just average, except for FT% and blocks, which are pretty poor for his position…Danny Granger is expected to start at small forward for the Pacers. In the 17 games he started last season, Granger averaged 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. His rebounds might fall a bit, but his points should increase…Marvin Williams is slated to start at power forward this season, and should benefit from another year of experience and the extra minutes. Don’t even bother looking at his season stats from last year. In six games as the starter, he averaged 11 points and seven rebounds – those numbers should be a baseline for this season…Zaza Pachulia had a pretty good season last year, but the Hawks brought in Lorenzen Wright and drafted Shelden Williams, so Zaza may not be the starter for long.

TIER SEVEN: Vladimir Radmanovic, (Shareef Abdur-Rahim), Udonis Haslem, (Adam Morrison), Drew Gooden, (Shelden Williams), (Kendrick Perkins), (Kwame Brown), (Darko Milicic), Al Jefferson, Stromile Swift, (Kurt Thomas), (Nene), (Ike Diogu), Antonio McDyess, (P.J. Brown), Kenny Thomas
The Lakers lured Vladimir Radmanovic away from the Clippers, and he should start at small forward, providing the team with a player who can stretch the court. He offers great three-point range, but his FG%, rebounding and blocks are pretty spotty for a guy his size. Still, he should see more than 30 minutes a game for the first time since the 2003-04 season, and that will help his productivity…Shareef Abdur-Rahim only averaged 23 minutes after the All-Star break, basically splitting time at the PF position with Kenny Thomas, so I don’t expect his numbers to jump appreciably this season…Udonis Haslem blocks and points are below average for his position, but he’s steady, and his FG% (50.8%) and FT% (78.9%) won’t hurt you…Adam Morrison is expected to start at small forward for the Bobcats. 12-15 points and 4-7 rebounds are within reach, but preseason will be the best gauge of how well his game will translate to the pro level…With he emergence of Anderson Varejao, Drew Gooden saw his minutes fall to an average of 27.5 last season, but he still managed 10.7 points and 8.4 rebounds, while increasing his FG% to 51.2%…The Hawks liked Shelden Williams so much that they moved up in the draft, even though they didn’t have to. He figures to backup Marvin Williams and ZaZa Pachulia this season, and it won’t take long before he’s getting substantial minutes. He should provide good rebounding and blocks…Kendrick Perkins showed some flashes in his third season, averaging 7.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 37 games as the Celtics’ starting center. The team acquired Theo Ratliff, so the two will battle it out this preseason…Kwame Brown has all the physical tools to be a great center in the league, except good hands. In 32 games as the team’s starting center, he averaged 10.7 points and 7.8 rebounds, but his FT% and blocks aren’t up to snuff…I really thought Darko Milicic would be a strong sleeper heading into the season, but Magic head coach Brian Hill plans on starting Tony Battie alongside Dwight Howard. Maybe he’s just doing it to motivate Milicic…Al Jefferson is slimmed down and should see time at power forward for the Celtics. Boston is looking for front court help, so if he can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, Jefferson could fit the bill…Year in and year out, Stromile Swift is a fantasy tease, but the Grizzlies will have to rely on him with Pau Gasol out until mid-January…Kurt Thomas missed much of last season with a foot injury, but only averaged 8.6 points and 7.8 rebounds in 53 with the Suns last season. If Amare Stoudemire makes a strong return, Thomas won’t see a ton of minutes…Nene is coming of a knee injury but has shown flashes of talent in the past. It looks like he’ll start the season backing up Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin…Don Nelson seems to really like the idea of playing Mike Dunleavy at power forward, so Ike Diogu might find that minutes are hard to come by. He has shown flashes of ability, but hasn’t been consistent enough to earn big minutes…Antonio McDyess isn’t getting any younger, but along with Nazr Mohammed, he’ll be asked to replace Ben Wallace…P.J. Brown and Kenny Thomas are solid, yet unspectacular. They’re good players to plug in when injuries hit.

TIER EIGHT: (Mark Blount), (Chris Mihm), (Jeff Foster), Brian Cook, (Melvin Ely), (Donyell Marshall), (Antoine Walker), (Nick Collison), (Raef LaFrentz), (Theo Ratliff), (Tony Battie), (Tyrus Thomas), (Rudy Gay), (Andrea Bargnani), (LaMarcus Aldridge)
Mark Blount provides adequate scoring and rebounding numbers inside…Antoine Walker brings the threes, but his FG% and FT% will really drag your team down… Chris Mihm is still having trouble with the ankle injury that cost him 24 games last season. He’s a decent fantasy center when healthy…Keep an eye on the minutes that Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay and Andrea Bargnani get in preseason. If they are involved in the rotation, they may have some value as the season grows closer…LaMarcus Aldridge doesn’t figure to get a lot of time this season as he recovers from a shoulder injury.

Below are the small forward tiers. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.

Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Kevin Garnett is considered a power forward in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play small forward. Look for the PF and C tiers as the week goes on. You can find the PG tiers here and the SG tiers here.

TIER ONE: (Kevin Garnett), LeBron James, (Shawn Marion)
On average, LeBron James is going ahead of Kevin Garnett, but I still believe Garnett is the top fantasy player. LeBron holds the advantage in threes, points and assists, but KG is better in the other five meaningful categories. (Remember, they are compared to other players at their natural position.) LeBron is still improving, while KG has reached a plateau, so the choice is really a matter of preference…Shawn Marion can enter the discussion as well – he’s better than LeBron in five categories as well, but with LeBron’s continuing upside and the potential return of Amare Stoudemire, I’d take James over Marion.

TIER TWO: (Paul Pierce), (Lamar Odom), Rashard Lewis, (Vince Carter), (Andrei Kirilenko)
Paul Pierce should benefit from an improved supporting cast. Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak will keep defenses honest and a leaner Al Jefferson should provide some support in the post. He may be asked to score a bit less, but he should be more efficient as a result. He’s already solid in every category and his dual eligibility gives him the edge over the next guy on the list…Lamar Odom still hurts you with his FT%, but he improved his FG%, three-point shooting and assists last season, becoming one of the league’s best all-around players. He lost his infant son over the summer, so there’s no telling where his mind is at right now. I’m not a Laker fan, but I’m rooting for Odom this year…Rashard Lewis doesn’t rebound well for a guy his size, but otherwise, he’s solid across the board. Since he entered the league out of high school, he’s been in the league a long time, but is still only 27 years old…Vince Carter only has one weakness in his fantasy game – his FG%. Everything else is solid. Unfortunately for savvy fantasy owners, his ADP has caught up to his ability, but he’s a solid, versatile pick in the third…Yes, Andrei Kirilenko stuffs the stat sheet, but the guy is a serious injury risk – he missed 54 games in the last two seasons. I have a very tough time taking a guy with that kind of history in the second round, even if he does block 3.2 shots per game.

TIER THREE: (Michael Redd), (Andre Iguodala), (Tracy McGrady), (Antawn Jamison), (Boris Diaw), Ron Artest, (Josh Smith), (Gerald Wallace), Richard Jefferson
The Bucks’ supporting cast is improving with the arrivals of Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, so Michael Redd won’t have to deal with as many double teams as the last few years. Redd has steadily improved every year of his career, so I expect nothing less this summer…Andre Iguodala isn’t very good in assists or threes, but his FG%, steals and rebounds are amongst the best at his position. He offers very nice value in the late 4th or early 5th…Tracy McGrady is a Tier Two guy when healthy. Hell, he might even be a Tier One guy if he was 100%, which he says he is. But do you trust his bad back to hold up for an entire season? I certainly don’t, not at the cost of a first or early second round pick. However, if he looks good in the preseason, I might bite on him in the late second…Antawn Jamison lost some accuracy from the field last season, but his scoring, rebounding and threes all increased. His blocks are pathetic, but the rest of his numbers are quite solid…After the All-Star break, Boris Diaw averaged 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists while shooting 57% from the field. The Yahoo game lists him as a PF or a C, but I’m sure he’s eligible at SF in other games as well. The big question – how will the returns of Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas affect his playing time? He may not play 35 minutes a game again this season, but the Suns will find a way to get him 30…Ron Artest is a risky pick for obvious reasons, but he’s an all-around good player, and I expect his numbers to improve as he enters his first full season with the Kings. His FG% and FT% aren’t good, but the rest of his numbers are solid…Josh Smith went on a tear after the All-Star break, averaging 15.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.1 blocks over the last 32 games. During that span, only his FG% (42.6%) was a glaring weakness. He’s poised for great things…Gerald Wallace is a consistently underrated fantasy player. His FT% and his threes leave something to be desired, but the rest of his stats are quite strong and he’s amongst the leaders at his position in steals, blocks and FG%. The arrival of Adam Morrison is a bit worrisome, however. Preseason should be a good indicator of how the team wants to use the two players…Richard Jefferson is a player that isn’t outstanding in any one category, but he doesn’t hurt you either. He provides good FG%, FT%, points, rebounds and assists.

TIER FOUR: (Morris Peterson), Peja Stojakovic, Carmelo Anthony, Caron Butler, (Bobby Simmons), (Charlie Villanueva) (Hedo Turkoglu), (Wally Szczerbiak)
Mo Peterson finished last season on a tear, and with the loss of Mike James, the team will need his scoring to compliment Chris Bosh. Also, Toronto’s new up-tempo system should make Peterson’s numbers last year a worst-case scenario…Peja Stojakovic is definitely on the downside of his career. His scoring, assists and rebounds have declined each of the last three years. He’s still a great shooter and is phenomenal from the charity stripe, but his blocks, assists and steals aren’t very good…Carmelo Anthony is a fine player, but he’s overrated in fantasy circles and will almost certainly be gone before any savvy owner would consider drafting him. His points are nice, but he doesn’t provide enough rebounds, blocks or threes for his position…Caron Butler was terrific last season, setting career highs in points, rebounds, FG% and FT% – can he keep it up? His situation in Washington hasn’t changed much this offseason, so I don’t see any reason why not…Bobby Simmons played great for the Bucks over the last half of the season. If he rebounded a little better and blocked a few more shots, his numbers would be very solid. As is, his threes and FT% are outstanding and he doesn’t hurt you in any other categories…How will Charlie Villanueva fit in with the Bucks? He did play better over the second half of the season, but he did all that scoring on a bad team. He’ll be the third or fourth option in Milwaukee and won’t be shooting the three as much…Hedo Turkoglu played great down the stretch for the Magic, and unless Grant Hill can come back healthy, there is no one on the roster that will cut into his time. His numbers are pretty good all-around, though his assists and steals are lacking…Wally Szczerbiak brings terrific FG%, FT% and threes to the table, but has yet to confirm that his knee is 100%.

TIER FIVE: (Mike Miller), (Ricky Davis), (Josh Childress), (Corey Maggette), (Al Harrington), Andres Nocioni, Shane Battier, (Danny Granger), (Marvin Williams)
Mike Miller will be asked to do a lot this season, especially with Pau Gasol being out for the first half of the year. He’s one of the league’s best all-around shooters, but his assist and steal numbers drag his value down… It might be surprising to see Ricky Davis up here in Tier Four, but his stats are pretty solid all-around. The arrivals of Mike James and Randy Foye could cut into his scoring opportunities, but the team will still need the rest of his game. Kevin McHale doesn’t like his defense, so keep an eye on this situation during preseason…Josh Childress offers terrific FG% and good steals, but his numbers are lacking in other areas. He’s got to find time behind Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, but given his production, I think the Hawks will give him 28+ minutes…Corey Maggette came off the bench much of last season after returning from an injury. He offers great FT% and rebounding, but his assists, steals and threes are a bit lacking. For some reason, there were trade rumors swirling around him, but the Clippers would be wise to hold onto him…Al Harrington returns to Indiana to play power forward (Jermaine O’Neal is expected to play center). Harrington brings good points and rebounds, but the rest of his stats are just average, except for FT% and blocks, which are pretty poor for his position…Andres Nocioni lacks assists and steals, but he’s pretty solid in the other categories, including some very good FT% and three-point shooting. The Bulls have added a lot of pieces this season, so hey may not match the 29 minutes a game he played after the All-Star break…Shane Battier will be a nice complimentary player to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. He’ll have to fight McGrady and Bonzi Wells for minutes, but he should get around the same playing time (35 per game) that he received in Memphis. He’s one of those guys that doesn’t do anything really well, but he doesn’t really hurt your fantasy team either…Danny Granger is expected to start at small forward for the Pacers. In the 17 games he started last season, Granger averaged 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. His rebounds might fall a bit, but his points should increase…Marvin Williams is slated to start at power forward this season, and should benefit from another year of experience and the extra minutes. Don’t even bother looking at his season stats from last year. In six games as the starter, he averaged 11 points and seven rebounds – those numbers should be a baseline for this season.

TIER SIX: (Shareef Abdur-Rahim), (Stephen Jackson), Tayshaun Prince, Kyle Korver, (Josh Howard), (Luol Deng), Mike Dunleavy, (Adam Morrison), (Eddie Jones)
Shareef Abdur-Rahim only averaged 23 minutes after the All-Star break, basically splitting time at the PF position with Kenny Thomas, so I don’t expect his numbers to jump appreciably this season…When Stephen Jackson isn’t getting punched in the mouth or firing shots in a parking lot of a nightclub, he’s a pretty good all-around fantasy player. Sure, his FG% and assists are lacking, but everything else is solid. He might see a downtick in points with the addition of Al Harrington, but something tells me that Jackson will still get his shots…Tayshaun Prince is one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, but that doesn’t translate well to fantasy hoops. He’s pretty solid all around, and his worst category – rebounds – should improve with the departure of Ben Wallace, bringing his actual value closer to his ADP…Kyle Korver brings great FT% and threes, but he doesn’t do much else…Josh Howard is a fine player, but he’s not a particularly good fantasy player. Most of his stats are pretty average for his position, but his threes, blocks and assists are below average…The Bulls have had a crowded backcourt in recent years, and now they’ve got a crowded frontcourt as well. It’s not clear how many minutes Luol Deng will get, but the kid’s got great upside so he should get 28-35 minutes somewhere. His threes are awful, but he’s pretty solid everywhere else…Don Nelson plans to use Mike Dunleavy at power forward in order to take advantage of defensive matchups on the offensive end. Overall, his numbers should improve some with Nelson’s arrival…Adam Morrison is expected to start at small forward for the Bobcats. 12-15 points and 3-5 rebounds are within reach, but preseason will be the best gauge of how well his game will translate to the pro level…Counting on 34 year-old Eddie Jones to increase his scoring after four consecutive years of diminishing returns is a dicey proposition. But Pau Gasol is out for the first half of the season so Jones should see a few more shots. His steals and threes are still great.

TIER SEVEN: (Martell Webster), (Desmond Mason), (John Salmons), (Rodney Carney), (Donyell Marshall), (Antoine Walker), (Jerry Stackhouse)
Martell Webster played solid ball over the last two months of the season, but Darius Miles is still penciled in at SF. But don’t be surprised if Miles isn’t on the team after the trade deadline, in order to develop Webster…Desmond Mason is coming off his most miserable season as a pro. Statistically, he’s a better player than he showed last year and supposedly he’s been working on that jumpshot…John Salmons was productive in games that Allen Iverson missed and now has the opportunity to fight for the starting shooting guard slot in Sacramento, making him a deep sleeper…Rodney Carney will serve as a backup to Andre Iguodala and Chris Webber. He’s a phenomenal athlete, so keep an eye on his preseason performance to see how many minutes the Sixers are giving him…Donyell Marshall brings good three-point shooting, rebounds and FT%, but the rest of his game is below average…Antoine Walker brings the threes, but his FG% and FT% will really drag your team down…Jerry Stackhouse can score and shoot free throws well, but that’s about it.

TIER EIGHT: (Marquis Daniels), (Quentin Richardson), (James Posey), (Michael Finley), (Jared Jeffries), Bruce Bowen, (Matt Harpring), (Tim Thomas), Darius Miles
Marquis Daniels was stuck behind all the guards in Dallas and was never really able to get out of Avery Johnson’s doghouse. He will have more opportunity in Indiana backing up Stephen Jackson at off guard…Quentin Richardson has fallen far since his days with the Clippers and the Suns and is now fighting for minutes on a bad Knicks team. Unless he plays great in the preseason, avoid him if at all possible…James Posey will continue to find minutes backing up Antoine Walker and Dwyane Wade in MiamiMichael Finley will continue to come off the bench for the Spurs and offer good threes and FT%, but little else…Jared Jeffries and Bruce Bowen are defensive specialists that don’t bring a lot to the table in fantasy leagues…If it looks like Darius Miles is going to make it through preseason as the starting SF for Portland, he’d be worth a late round flyer.