Category: Fantasy Basketball (Page 247 of 274)

      Denver Nuggets: Good defensive team?

      April 11, 2008 /

      The Warriors got off to a great start in the first quarter, but as soon as the Nuggets switched to a zone, the momentum shifted and Denver coasted to a 114-105 win in Oakland. The win gives Denver a full game lead on the Warriors, but the Nuggets also own the head-to-head tiebraker, so they essentially have a two game lead with three games to play.

      As I was reading up on the game today, I ran across a ton of commentary about how bad these two teams are defensively. It got me wondering, just how bad are they? Well, it’s true that these two teams allow the most points in the league, but they also play at a very high pace, so there are more possessions, which means their opponents have more chances to score. It’s not really fair to judge their defense without taking into account their pace, is it?

      John Hollinger is ESPN’s numbers guy, and he keeps track of pace as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. The results are interesting. Unsurprisingly, Denver and Golden State are 1/2 in pace. The Nuggets play an average of 102.1 possessions per game while the Warriors play 101.2. Hollinger’s defensive efficiency number is simply the number of points a team allows divided by 100 possessions. Denver and Golden State are terrible, right? Wrong. While the Warriors are just on the edge of the bottom third (#20) the Nuggets finish a respectable 10th.

      That means that possession for possession, the Nuggets do a fairly good job of playing defense. This conclusion is backed up by the fact that they are in the middle of the pack (13th) in defensive field goal percentage. (Golden State is a less-than-mediocre 22nd.)

      So next time your buddy knocks the Nuggets, bet him that Denver is in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency and opponents’ field goal percentage. You’re bound to win some dough.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Draft

      Is Derrick Rose the new #1 pick?

      April 10, 2008 /

      Derrick Rose had a wonderful NCAA tournament, but was less than spectacular against Kansas. He may have been bothered with a stomach ailment, but he just didn’t look like himself. In a recent column, ESPN’s Chad Ford discusses Rose’s draft stock:

      NBA scouts and GMs say that, overall, Rose helped himself more than anyone else in the tournament. Considering he was already the consensus No. 2 pick in the draft, that’s saying something. More GMs than ever are starting to say that the No. 1 pick in the draft should be Rose, not fellow freshman Michael Beasley. While Rose didn’t put up Beasley’s numbers this year, his leadership, position and upside all suggest to some in the NBA that he could have an impact similar to Chris Paul’s in the league. That’s saying something.

      We’ll keep monitoring this over the coming weeks. I’d estimate that about 65 percent of GMs I’ve spoken with still have Beasley atop their boards. But the trend is clearly tracking toward Rose.

      I think this comes down to what the team with the #1 pick needs. The likely lottery winners are Miami, Seattle, Minnesota, New York and Memphis. I think the Grizzlies would take Beasley (since they already have Mike Conley), while the Sonics, Timberwolves and the Knicks would take Rose. The Heat could go either way depending on what they do with Shawn Marion and whether or not they want Dwyane Wade playing the point or off guard. Generally speaking, it’s tougher to find a game-changing point guard than it is to find a game-changing forward, so that favors Rose. Both guys are can’t-miss picks.

      By the way, neither guy has declared for the draft… yet.

      Photos courtesy of Flickr.

      College Basketball, Fantasy Basketball, March Madness, NBA, NBA Draft

      Shaq starting to pay dividends in Phoenix

      April 10, 2008 /

      The Suns’ decision to trade away Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal raised more than a few eyebrows around the league, but it’s clear that Phoenix did it with the intention of winning now. A healthy (and motivated) Shaq can still shift the balance, especially in the playoffs where he’ll get plenty of rest between games. Last night, the Suns blitzed the Spurs in San Antonio, and Shaq was a big reason why.

      ESPN’s Ric Bucher described the game this way:

      O’Neal, despite being Shaqled with foul trouble all night, chipped in 16 points and nine rebounds and served as the Big Antidote against Tim Duncan, who needed 21 shots to collect 23 points and had only two in the final 15 minutes. Result: a 96-79 Suns’ win and more woofin’ in the visiting AT&T locker room than has been heard in quite some time. Phoenix is now 2-0 against the Spurs in their Shaq era and, while they fully understand the Spurs are a different animal in the playoffs, they clearly see themselves as a step above the Suns teams San Antonio eliminated from the playoffs three of the past four years.

      I didn’t like the trade initially, and I still don’t think it was the right move when looking at the Suns’ long-term prospects. But if Shaq can stay on the court and is playing with energy, he could put Phoenix over the top in the short term.

      Whether or not the Suns will face the Spurs in the first two rounds of the playoffs is another matter. Going into tonight’s games, the top six teams are separated by just three games, so a lot could happen over the final few games. The Suns would potentially play the Lakers, Spurs and Hornets in consecutive series – not an easy road.

      It looks like the Hornets will be the #1 seed and will face either the Nuggets or the Warriors (probably whomever wins tonight). Dallas looks to be all but a lock for the #7 seed, but the #2-#6 seeds change nightly.

      Photos courtesy of Flickr.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, NBA Finals

      Indiana’s Gordon declares for draft, Budinger too

      April 8, 2008 /

      As expected, Indiana freshman phenom Eric Gordon declared for the draft yesterday.

      Gordon, a third-team All-American, is the second member of the heralded 2008 freshman class to declare for the draft, joining Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless. Those who have not yet announced whether they will turn pro include centers Michael Beasley of Kansas State and Kevin Love of UCLA, both first-team All-Americans; Memphis guard Derrick Rose, a third-team All-American; and guard O.J. Mayo of Southern Cal, who was an honorable mention choice on the All-American list.

      Gordon led the Big Ten in scoring (20.9 points), set school and Big Ten freshman scoring records with 669 points, and made the third most free throws by a Hoosier in a single season (231). He also tied Mike Woodson’s school record for most 30-point games by a freshman (three) and won the conference’s freshman player of the year award.

      Gordon is one of the top shooting guard prospects, and NBADraft.net projects him to go #7 this summer, assuming all the aforementioned players decide to leave early.

      Arizona’s Chase Budinger also declared himself eligible. His stock was probably a little higher at the end of last season, but he’s still projected to be a mid-first round pick.

      College Basketball, Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      Why Chris Paul will win the MVP

      April 8, 2008 /

      ESPN’s Scoop Jackson wrote a fine piece detailing why Kobe Bryant will not win the MVP award this season.

      Truth is Kobe Bryant will never win the MVP of the league. He is hated too much. Hated by those who cast votes. Hated too much by those he plays against. And the two All-Star Game MVPs he’s won, well, they don’t count in this scenario. Voting Kobe as the best basketball player in the world for a day is one thing, honoring him with that same title for an entire season … in the infamous words of Bobby Brown’s ex-wife: “Oh, hell to the No!”

      Writers won’t honor Kobe like that, not even when in good consciousness they want to or would like to. As one writer said to me when the subject was brought up in conversation, very apropos for an election year, “Kobe’s electability quotient is zero.” In other words, he’s Ralph Nader.

      Bryant had two terrific back-to-back seasons (in ’05-’06 and ’06-’07) but wasn’t a strong MVP candidate because the Lakers didn’t win enough games. (The last player to win the MVP on a team with fewer than 50 wins was Moses Malone in the 1981-82 season.) This season, his Lakers have their 50 wins – 53 and counting, to be exact – but Jackson argues that the amount of hatred that Kobe generates from those that vote (the media) ensures that he will not be winning the award this season.

      In truth, Kobe is probably the most talented player in the NBA. But this doesn’t make him the MVP. I have a buddy who is a diehard Laker fan and we debate this endlessly. But I always come back to the same point – to be the best you can’t pull the kind of stuff Kobe pulls off the court. You have to be a good teammate, and by most accounts, Kobe is not. So, to me, being the most talented and being the best are two different things.

      This is why Chris Paul will be the NBA MVP. No one saw the Hornets’ amazing season coming and Paul is the main reason why New Orleans is so good. The Hornets currently have the best record in the West and Paul’s numbers – 21.5 ppg, 11.5 apg, 4.0 rpg, 2.7 apg – are better than the numbers Steve Nash posted in the ’04-’05 and the ’05-’06 seasons. Moreover, Paul is universally considered a good guy, and the media likes him. (Kevin Garnett is the darkhorse, but his stats – 18.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.3 bpg – aren’t eye-popping.) If Paul’s assist numbers weren’t so gaudy or if the Hornets were in the fifth spot in the West instead of first, Kobe would have a better shot, but given Kobe’s reputation (and offseason temper tantrum), I don’t see the media awarding him with the MVP.

      Is this fair? Not entirely, but Kobe made his bed and now he has to lie in it.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

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