Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN.com recently posted his 2008 Fantasy Predictions. Some of his most interesting predictions came in the section he calls “Players I didn’t draft anywhere.” It was a collection of guys he stayed away from on draft day and there’s some pretty big names in his group.
Josh Beckett: Not that I don’t respect his talent, I just don’t trust his health. Beckett has exactly two 30-start campaigns in six years, and he logged 230 2/3 frames in 2007 (counting the postseason). That’s a lot, and I think it limits him to 25 starts in 2008.
Cole Hamels: Again, this one is all about health. Has everyone forgotten he missed a month late last year with a strained elbow? Fast fact: Hamels has averaged fewer than 18 starts per season as a pro. That’s not enough for me to make him a top-10 starter.
Hideki Matsui: I’ve watched enough baseball to recognize a career decline when I see one. His knee is a tad questionable, and his 2007 numbers were boosted by a monster July when he hit 13 homers with 28 RBIs. Take that month out, and he’d have been a .270-12-75 hitter in 115 games. Snore.
Brian McCann: I don’t overspend on catchers and wasn’t willing to grab McCann as early as he went. It’s just not what I do. That said, I’d say McCann’s true value is closer to his average draft position than most.
Jorge Posada: Again, I don’t overspend on catchers. Especially not 36-year-olds with thousands of innings on their knees coming off out-of-nowhere career years.
Carlos Zambrano: It’s easy to rag on him now after he left his Opening Day start with forearm cramps, but go back to January, when I said I was about as anti-Zambrano as a fantasy writer could get. If he makes 30-plus solid starts, I’ll be stunned.
I agree with his assesment on all of these players. Each one of these guys has some major fantasy drawbacks, yet players like Zambrano, Hamels and Beckett are still going high in drafts. I like what he writes about not overspending for catchers, too.
