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2010 NFL Week 4 Odds

Washington Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb leaves the field after the Redskins defeated the Dallas Cowboys 13-7 at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on September 12, 2010. UPI/Kevin Dietsch Photo via Newscom

Along with the odds for Week 4 in the NFL, here’s a look at some of the marquee matchups this weekend.

Ravens at. Steelers, 1:00PM ET
The highlight of the Week 4 schedule takes place in Pittsburgh this Sunday as the Steelers host the Ravens at 1:00PM ET. Charlie Batch threw three touchdown passes in Pittsburgh’s win over the Bucs last weekend, but should find it much tougher to move the ball on a stingy Baltimore defense. That said, while the Ravens’ offense looked good for the first time this season in Week 3, the defense struggled against the punchless Browns. On the injury front, Ray Rice is dealing with a bruised knee and didn’t practice on Wednesday. His status for Sunday’s game against the Steelers is up in the air.
ODDS: STEELERS –1

Redskins at. Eagles, 4:15PM ET
There will be plenty of intrigue in Philadelphia this Sunday when Donovan McNabb returns to his old stomping grounds as a member of the Redskins. The other storyline in this game is whether or not Michael Vick can continue his assault on NFL defenses. The former No. 1 overall pick has played at a Pro Bowl level so far this season, but this will be the toughest defense he has faced to date. The Skins’ win over the Cowboys in Week 1 seems like a distant memory, although a win over their division rivals will put them right back on track after losing two straight.
ODDS: EAGLES -6

Bears at. Giants, 8:20PM ET
Two teams heading in different directions will square off at the new Meadowlands this Sunday night when the Giants host the Bears. After winning their opener, New York has dropped its last two games in embarrassing fashion. The G-Men were routed in Indianapolis in Week 2 and managed to lose last week despite outgaining the Titans in almost every offensive category. The Bears, on the other hand, are 3-0 and are versed in causing turnovers. New York desperately needs a win to get back on track.
ODDS: GIANTS –4

Patriots at. Dolphins, 8:30PM ET Monday
The Dolphins will take on an AFC East Division rival for the second straight week after losing at home to the Jets last Sunday night. Miami’s defense didn’t play particularly well against New York, which must have Tom Brady and Co. licking their chops. Of course, if New England plays as poorly defensively this week as they did last Sunday against the Bills, then this game could wind up being a shootout. (The total is sitting at 46.5, so obviously oddsmakers are already prepared for that.)
ODDS: DOLPHINS +1

Below are the point spreads for all the games in Week 4.

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Is Tamba Hali the next Elvis Dumervil?

KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 26: Tamba Hali  of the Kansas City Chiefs sacks Alex Smith  of the San Francisco 49ers at Arrowhead Stadium on September 26, 2010 in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs won 31-10. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

In 2006, Penn State’s Tamba Hali was the second rated defensive end behind NC State’s Mario Williams heading into the NFL Draft.

While he was expected to go later than 20th overall, scouts were still enamored with Hali’s potential at the defensive end position. He made an impression on the Chiefs early in camp and went on to win the Mack Lee Hill award as the top Chiefs rookie in 2006. He would eventually move from left to right end in 2008 when Jared Allen was traded to the Vikings and was viewed as the team’s best pass rusher.

But when the Chiefs hired Todd Haley in 2009, the defense switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4, meaning Hali was left without a position. He wasn’t a fit for end in the 3-4, so the team moved him to outside linebacker in hopes that he would be an effective edge rusher out of a two-point stance.

Nice call, Chief.

After recording three last week in the Chiefs’ win over the 49ers, Hali now has 8.5 sacks in his last eight games dating back to last season. There’s no doubt that he’s comfortable in his new position and he continues to be Kansas City’s best pass rusher week in and week out.

If Hali’s story sounds familiar, it’s because Elvis Dumervil took a similar path to lead the NFL in sacks last season. Dumervil was also a defensive end in college (although he didn’t have as highly decorated career as Hali did) and was also forced into a new role when Mike Nolan was hired as Denver’s defensive coordinator last year. He too switched to outside linebacker in the Broncos’ new 3-4 scheme and racked up 17 sacks in the process.

While Hali still has a long way to go to register as many QB takedowns as Dumervil did in ‘09, his effort over the past eight games has been noteworthy. A new pass-rushing star in the mold of Dumervil has started to sprout in KC.

Why won’t Josh McDaniels utilize Tim Tebow?

Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow stands on the sideline during the first quarter of their NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville, Florida September 12, 2010. REUTERS/Daron Dean (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

There are only 16 games on a NFL schedule. Most seasons, a team has to win at least nine of those 16 games to make the playoffs and sometimes that’s not even enough.

Forty-five players can be active on Sundays. Of those 45 players, usually two are quarterbacks and a third is named the emergency signal caller in case of injury.

With this in mind, I wonder why Josh McDaniels has decided not to use rookie Tim Tebow in special packages – especially with running back Knowshon Moreno out with a hamstring injury.

I’m not a big Tebow fan. I think he’s a massive project and I have serious doubts that he’ll be a productive starting quarterback one day in the NFL. But that’s just my opinion. Obviously McDaniels and the scouts in Denver see something in him, which is why they traded multiple picks to move up in April’s draft to select him in the first round. One day, Tebow will be the starter in Denver, although it won’t be this year and chances are it won’t be in 2011 either.

So why not get Tebow involved now? He can obviously run, as he proved that at Florida. His passing mechanics are still a work in progress, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t line up in the Wildcat formation and throw the ball out of a run-pass option. McDaniels thinks it’s “ridiculous” to use Tebow in short yardage situations, but I would venture to say that it’s more ridiculous for a head coach not to use all of the weapons that are at his disposal.

What is McDaniels worried about? That his quarterback of the future could get hurt running the ball? Tebow is a runner at heart – he’s not going to stop running when he becomes a starter.

Is McDaniels worried that Tebow is going to make a mistake to cost the Broncos a game? All young players make mistakes – it’s inevitable.

I don’t get why a team like the Broncos that lacks offensive punch would leave a potential weapon like Tebow on the bench. I’m not suggesting he start over Kyle Orton – now that would be ridiculous. But seeing as how Laurence Maroney was stuffed at the goal line last week in a loss to the Colts, maybe it’s time for McDaniels to consider all of his options.

Good head coaches know how to utilize all of their talent. It’s one of the things that gives them an advantage on Sunday.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 4

ATLANTA - DECEMBER 14:  Linebacker Curtis Lofton #50 of the Atlanta Falcons lines up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers  at the Georgia Dome on December 14, 2008 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 3 picks fared:

#1 Dolphins: Zero fantasy points. (Ugh.)
#2 Redskins: 1 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR = 3 fp
#3 Chargers: 3 SK + 1 INT + 1 FR + 1 Safety = 7 fp

Clearly, it was an awful week for DTBWW. In fact, it was the lowest combined total since I started this feature at the beginning of the 2009 season. I apologize to anyone who took the Dolphins this week, especially if it cost them a win. (For what it’s worth, they cost me a win.) I overestimated Miami’s defense and underestimated Mark Sanchez and the Jets. New York did a nice job of calling short, quick-hitting pass plays for Sanchez which kept the Miami defense at bay and made it relatively easy to avoid turnovers.

Even with the crappy week, DTBWW is performing pretty well on the whole. My top pick is averaging 7.3 fantasy points per game, my #2 pick is averaging 7.7 and my #3 pick is averaging 8.3, for an overall average of 7.8 fppg. Those are DT8 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s pick keeping in mind that to be eligible, the DT needs to be available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues.

Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons (vs. SF)
The Falcons are currently the #15 fantasy defense and they played pretty well (5 fantasy points) in a bad matchup with the Saints last week. This week, they go home to face one of the worst scoring offenses of the 2010 season. The 49ers just fired their offensive coordinator and are in transition.

Pick #2: San Diego Chargers (vs. ARI)
This is a tasty matchup for the Chargers due to Derek Anderson. Opposing teams have scored an average of 8.0 fantasy points on the Cards, so that’s a good baseline expectation for the Chargers, who have scored 19 points over the last two weeks.

Pick #3: Indianapolis Colts (@ JAX)
Offensively, the Jaguars are a mess. The Colts will probably get up by two or three scores, forcing the Jags to press, which will lead to sacks and turnovers.

Bonus Picks: SEA (@ STL), STL (vs. SEA)

Bengals not concerned about Carson Palmer, although they should be

CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 26: Carson Palmer  of the Cincinnati Bengals falls to the ground after a hard hit against the Carolina Panthers during their game at Bank of America Stadium on September 26, 2010 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

It seems like yesterday that Bengal fans were excited that their team finally found a quarterback after they drafted Carson Palmer in 2004. They had lived through hell (also known as the Akili Smith era) and they finally had a quarterback to which they could call their own.

Too bad it didn’t last long.

Following the Bengals’ lackluster 20-7 win over the Panthers on Sunday, head coach Marvin Lewis said that he’s not concerned with the poor play of his quarterback. But that’s only because he has Jordan Palmer sitting on his bench.

The Bengals won’t say it, but Palmer (Carson, not Jordan) has been sub par at best this year. In completing 19-of-37 passes for 195 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions last weekend, he managed to make rookie Jimmy Clausen look somewhat productive. His decision-making hasn’t been stellar, his accuracy has been off, his arm strength is painstakingly average and he looks goofy in his helmet. (I know it’s supposed to be safer, but it looks like the Great Gazoo in that thing.)

In other words, he’s become a more expensive version of Shaun Hill without the okay-for-a-white-quarterback wheels.

It’s not a stretch to say that Palmer isn’t the same player he was earlier in his career and if the Bengals are expecting a turnaround, they may be waiting a while. The team tried to upgrade its passing attack in the offseason with the acquisitions of rookie draft picks Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley, as well as free agent Terrell Owens. But if Palmer can’t get them the ball then those new additions will obviously go to waste.

Unless Palmer finds the fountain of youth, the Bengals will have to continue to rely on their running game and defense to win games. That’s fine in the regular season, but what if Cincinnati makes the playoffs again? They ran into a buzz saw last year in the Jets and if they wind up facing another opponent who can stop the run, then Palmer will likely be exposed.

That said, it’s a long season and maybe Palmer will develop a rhythm in the passing game. There’s still plenty of time to figure it out and the good thing for the Bengals is that they have a hard worker under center.

But man, he has not looked good in the first three games. And it’s not like he faced a hybrid collection of the best players from the ’85 Bears and ’00 Ravens last Sunday in Carolina either.

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