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Fade Material: NFL Week 15 Predictions

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady scrambles for two yards on a keeper in the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on December 4, 2011. The Patriots defeated the Colts UPI/Matthew Healey

A personal thank you goes out to the Bengals and Panthers for blowing decent leads at home versus the Texans and Falcons last week, and to the Bucs and Raiders as well, who never bothered to get off their respective planes in Jacksonville and Green Bay. With their powers combined, the Bengals, Panthers, Bucs and Raiders contributed to my 0-4 Sunday in Week 15. That hideousness dropped my season record to 24-29-2 with just three weeks to go to try and get over .500. The true season starts now, folks. It’s time for me to make my own version of a playoff run…

Redskins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
September 11, 2011, the Giants walk into FedEx Field and walk out with a 28-14 loss to the Rex Grossman-led Redskins. October 9, 2011, the Giants host the Seahawks after nearly losing to the Cardinals in Arizona the week before and are crushed by Seattle, 36-25. October 30, 2011, the Giants barely squeak by the then-winless Dolphins, 20-17. November 20, 2011, the Giants lose 17-10 as a 6-point favorite to the Vince Young-lead Eagles. Whenever you think the Giants should win, run the other way. They’ve played down to their competition all year and while I realize the NFC East is on the line for NY, the Skins have already proven that they can beat the Giants and have nothing to lose. They’ve also been more competitive with Grossman at the controls than John Beck so while I don’t think Washington will win, I like the Skins to keep things close.
THE PICK: REDSKINS +6.5

Saints @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
The Vikings nearly knocked off the Lions last Sunday thanks to Joe Webb and they’ll have Adrian Peterson back this week against a New Orleans team that hasn’t looked sharp on the road this year. But unless Peterson transformed into the second coming of Deion Sanders over these past couple of weeks, then Minnesota will have a hard time keeping up with Drew Brees today. The Saints’ passing game versus the Vikings’ pass defense is one of the biggest mismatches of Week 15. I’m hesitant to lay 7.5 points on the Saints when they’ve been pretty average on the road this year but they should open up things today at the Metrodome.
THE PICK: SAINTS –7.5

Jets @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET
The Jets would be the sixth and final seed in the AFC if the playoffs were to start today but the problem is that the playoffs don’t start today. And with Tennessee, Cincinnati and San Diego still nipping at New York’s heels, Rex Ryan and Co. need to play their best football today in Philly. While I don’t trust Mark Sanchez as far as I can heave him, the Jets’ running game looks like it’s finally starting to take shape and Ryan’s defense should give Michael Vick fits. Given how inconsistent the Eagles have been this season, three points seems like a gift.
THE PICK: JETS +3

Patriots @ Broncos, 4:15PM ET
I fully expect Denver’s defense to play well again this week but eventually the Patriots will figure things out and score their 20-plus points. The question is whether or not Tim Tebow and the Broncos will be able to keep pace. At this point it’s probably foolish to doubt Denver’s ability to pull off the upset but I think the Pats will serve the Broncos a very rude awakening today.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5

Cubs in talks with Scott Boras about Prince Fielder

Milwaukee Brewers designated hitter Prince Fielder sits in the dugout before a MLB spring training baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels in Phoenix, March 5, 2011. REUTERS/Rick Scuteri (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

Whoever had Prince Fielder going to the Cubs in their MLB free agent office pool should have an extra spring in their step today.

No, the North Siders haven’t signed the big money free agent to a contract but according to ESPN Chicago’s Bruce Levine, the Cubs are indeed in talks with Fielder’s agent, Scott Boras. Manager Dale Sveum and team president Theo Epstein told reporters on Friday that they haven’t had direct contact with the first baseman but the lines of communication definitely seem to be open.

Ken Rosenthal said on Friday that the Cubs were the favorites to sign Fielder, although the FOX Sports.com writer was speculating more than reporting. Rosenthal feels as though the Cubs make “far more sense” than a club like the Mariners because Epstein is expected to eventually build a winner in Chicago, even if it takes a few years. Reports state that the Cubs prefer to sign Fielder to a shorter deal than the 10-year contract that Albert Pujols received from the Angels, which could make it difficult to sign the soon-to-be-former Brewer.

In related news, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is speculating that the Cardinals could make an attempt to sign Fielder, but only if it were to a short-term deal. St. Louis has also emerged as a potential landing spot for Carlos Beltran, who is finally starting to receive interest from multiple clubs. (The Rockies are reported to be in pursuit of Beltran as well.)

2011 NFL Week 15 Primer

New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan works on the sideline during the first half of their NFL football game against the Washington Redskins in Landover, Maryland, December 4, 2011. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

MARQUE MATCHUP: Patriots vs. Broncos, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
For the Broncos, this matchup with the Patriots is more than just about this game. It’s about seeing how well they stack up against one of the best in the AFC. Granted, during the Broncos’ current six-game winning streak they’ve beaten the Raiders, Jets, and Chargers, who are three teams still vying for a playoff berth in the conference. But Tom Brady and Co. is obviously a different animal. If Denver’s defense can’t keep guys like Brady and Rob Gronkowski in check, will Tim Tebow and the Bronco offense step up? Will Tebow be able to make plays through the air? Will his receivers win their individual matchups and actually catch the ball? Even though Denver now has the inside track to a playoff berth, doubts still remain about Tebow’s ability to win when he usually doesn’t even warm up until the fourth quarter. This will be a great test for a Denver team that still has plenty to prove.

THE POTENITAL (NOTEWORTHY) UPSET: Redskins over Giants, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
While the victory did come at home, Washington has already beaten New York once this season. Eli Manning threw one interception and no touchdowns while Rex Grossman completed 21-of-34 passes for 305 yards and two scores in the Redskins’ 28-14 victory in Week 1. The Skins have lost two in a row and eight of their last nine but they’re clearly a more competitive team with Grossman under center than John Beck. The Giants are currently the owners of first place in the NFC East by virtue of their win over the Cowboys last Sunday night. But the Giants have made a habit out of playing down to their competition all season. Even with a playoff berth on the line, Tom Coughlin’s squad always seems primed for an upset.

THE GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY: DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys have a chance to beat the Bucs on Saturday night and then sit back on Sunday and hope the Redskins can upset the Giants to give them a one-game lead again in the NFC East. There’s simply no excuse for Dallas to lose to Tampa Bay. The Bucs have lost seven in a row and are coming off a defeat in which they allowed 41 points to a horrendous Jacksonville offense. Raheem Morris is now on the hot seat and the Bucs don’t have the weapons to slow the Cowboys down on either side of the ball. True, Tampa will have home field advantage but how many Bucs fans will show up to Raymond James on Saturday night to root on a 4-9 team? The Bucs have a hard enough time filling their stadium when the team is good, nevertheless spiraling out of control. If Dallas can win, it puts all the pressure on New York to produce a victory at home the following day against a Washington team that’s slightly better than its record would indicate.

PUT UP OR SHUT UP: NEW YORK JETS
Some were ready to write the Jets off when they lost 17-13 to the Broncos back on that Thursday night in mid-November. But they’ve quietly rattled off three straight wins against inferior opponents in Buffalo, Washington and Kansas City, respectively. Their latest victory (a 37-10 shellacking of the Chiefs) has allowed them to take control of their own destiny in the AFC. If the playoffs were to start today, the Jets would own the sixth and final seed in the conference. But with Tennessee (7-6), Cincinnati (7-6), Oakland (7-6) and even San Diego (6-7) still very much alive, New York can ill-afford to suffer any losses. They’ll travel to Philadelphia this Sunday to take on an Eagles team that has been a mixed bag all season. You don’t know whether or not they’ll come out completely flat and disinterested or focused and inspired. That’s why if Rex Ryan wants people to start believing in “Gang Green” again, the Jets better come out this Sunday and beat a Philadelphia squad that for all intents and purposes is just riding out the rest of its schedule. Given how poorly the Eagles have defended the run this year, this is a great opportunity for Shonn Greene and the Jets to establish the run, play great defense and walk out of Philly with a victory.

NFL Week 15 Point Spreads & Odds

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick (7) looks to pass against the Washington Redskins before pulling the ball down and running during the second half of their NFL football game in Landover, Maryland, October 16, 2011. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Four spreads of note:

Seahawks +3.5 @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
The Seahawks, winners of two in a row and four of their last five, are a 3.5-point underdog versus a Bears team that has lost three straight and has scored just 13 points in their last two games? Something smells like baby diapers here. Oddsmakers are probably basing this line on the fact that the Seahawks haven’t been a strong road team this year (or in year’s past, for that matter) but the Bears have been a mess with Caleb Hanie under center the past three weeks. One would think that the 3.5 points are a gift but then again, if it looks too good to be true then it probably is.

Panthers +6.5 @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
Carolina choked away a potential victory last Sunday versus the Falcons and Houston is on a seven-game winning streak but 6.5 points seems like a lot. Granted, the Texans beat the Falcons by seven at home two weeks ago but Atlanta had two defensive touchdowns wiped away due to penalties in that game. The Panthers have the capability of scoring points in bunches thanks to Cam Newton, who could lead Carolina to an upset victory if he would bother to play four quarters instead of just two or three. I don’t doubt that Houston will win this game but again, 6.5 points seems a little high.

Lions –1 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
This feels like a trap. The Lions moved into the sixth spot in the NFC with their win over the Vikings last Sunday (plus a Chicago loss to Denver), while the Raiders have looked hideous the past two weeks. The line is probably set right given how Oakland is at home and Detroit is the better team at the moment, but the Lions seem like too easy of a pick. Granted, the Lions will have Ndamukong Suh back from suspension, which certainly helps along the defensive line. But their secondary is still banged up and the Raiders are now fighting for their postseason lives. Call it a hunch but I think the Raiders may pull off the small upset.

Jets +3 @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET
The Eagles haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (yet) but there’s no doubt that this game means more to the Jets, who are the current owners of the sixth and final seed in the AFC. Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see New York win this game outright given how much trouble Rex Ryan’s defense could cause for Michael Vick. In his first game back since suffering a rib injury in a loss to the Seahawks a couple of weeks back, Vick was shaky against the Dolphins last Sunday. Granted, he did pick up the win but he faces an uphill climb against the best secondary in the league this weekend. The three points seem like a gimmie.

NFL Week 15 Odds:

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Five Questions for Week 15 in the NFL

Every Tuesday I’ll take a look at the five biggest questions surrounding NFL teams for that week. This week I take a look at the Broncos-Patriots showdown, the Giants’ important divisional game against the Redskins plus Big Ben’s injury situation.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger surpasses former Steelers Terry Bradshaw mark of 2026 pass completions today during the 35-7 win over the Cincinnati Bengals at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on December 4, 2011. UPI/Archie Carpenter

1. Can the Broncos really do the unthinkable?
At this point it might be foolish to doubt what the Broncos can do. They’ve won six in a row and seven of their last eight, which includes comeback victories in either the fourth quarter or overtime of five games. Tim Tebow has received most of the attention but if not for Denver’s stingy defense or kicker Matt Prater it’s safe to say that Tebow wouldn’t have had the chance to turn in so many clutch performances. But can the Broncos really do the unthinkable? Can they knock off Tom Brady and the Patriots? If they can, they might as well punch their ticket as AFC West champions because they face beatable Buffalo and Kansas City in the final two weeks. But first things first: they must beat New England. That’s obviously easier said than done but if the Broncos come up victorious this weekend they’ll send a message to the rest of the league that they should be taken seriously. (Of course, one could say that they’ve already sent that message over the past six weeks.)

2. Can the scrappy Redskins halt the Giants momentum?
With the Giants’ wild 34-31 win over the Cowboys on Sunday night, things are all tied up again in the NFC East. New York is technically in first place by virtue of its head-to-head tiebreaker, but Dallas will have its shot at revenge in Week 17. In the meantime, there’s no more room for letdowns. The Cowboys travel to Tampa Bay on Saturday night to take on a Bucs team that is coming off a 41-14 spanking at the hands of the lousy Jaguars while the Giants host the 4-9 Redskins. For all intents and purposes, Dallas and New York should emerge from Week 15 with identical 8-6 records. That said, let’s not forget that Rex Grossman and Co. knocked off the Giants all the way back in Week 1. Granted, that game was also played in Washington but the Skins have nothing to lose at this point and they’re playing decent football of late. They’ve dropped three of their last four games but outside of their 34-19 loss to the Jets in Week 13 (a game that didn’t get out of hand until the fourth quarter), they’ve been competitive over the past month. The Giants have a habit of playing down to their competition and if they do it again this week the Mike Shanahan’s could nip them again.

3. How will Big Ben’s ankle injury affect his play?
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the high ankle sprain that Ben Roethlisberger suffered last Thursday against the Browns was the least damaging type of sprain. That’s obviously good news for the Steelers and considering Big Ben was able to return to the Cleveland game, he shouldn’t miss Monday’s game versus San Francisco. That said, how effective will he be is the question. Roethlisberger has played through various injuries all season and has played quite well. But he said this latest injury was “one of the most painful things I ever felt.” With the Steelers still battling with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North, they can ill-afford to have Roethlisberger sit if he says he’s able to go. But considering they all but have a playoff spot locked up, at what point does Pittsburgh decide that the risk isn’t worth the reward? This will be an interesting storyline to follow the next three weeks.

4. Can the Falcons find some consistency?
The Falcons have seemingly been on a roller coaster all season and you don’t know whether they’re going to finish the ride with their hands raised in jubilation or if the damn thing is going to go spiraling off the tracks. On paper they should be dominating but one moment they’re scoring 20-plus points in a half and the next they look completely hopeless offensively. One moment Roddy White and Julio Jones are catching everything in site and the next the ball might as well be a greased pig. One moment the offensive line is allowing Matt Ryan to pick defenses apart and the next they’re constantly helping him off the turf. This team is maddening to watch but maybe their impressive comeback against the Panthers last Sunday was just the thing they needed to wake them up. Yes, they were expected to beat Carolina. But anyone who watched their mistake-filled loss to the Texans the week before realized that the Panthers had a very realistic shot of beating the Falcons at home. And for one half of football, it looked like Carolina would beat Atlanta. But the Falcons finally found their groove in the second half and completely dominated the Panthers in the final two quarters. The question now becomes whether or not the Falcons found whatever has been missing this season. If they have, they’ll be a dangerous team from here on out. If not, well, strap in tight.

5. Will the Jets rise to the challenge?
The sixth seed in the AFC now belongs to the 8-5 Jets, who have won three in a row after losing back-to-back games to the Patriots and Broncos in Weeks 10 and 11. But the Jets don’t have the luxury of enjoying the moment because the Titans, Bengals and Raiders are still hot on their heels at 7-6. With upcoming games against the Eagles, Giants and Dolphins, the Jets could easily find themselves on the outside looking in if they slip up over these final three weeks. Their running game finally got going last week against the Chiefs, which is a good sign seeing as how poorly Philadelphia’s run defense has been this season. But can Mark Sanchez continue to stay out of the way and allow Shonn Greene and the defense to win games? Better yet, can he raise the level of his play so that the Jets soar into the postseason instead of limp to the finish line?

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