Category: College Basketball (Page 98 of 153)

Howie Schwab: Master of the obvious

Howie Schwab, who gained notoriety for his ESPN game show “Stump the Schwab,” comments on the number of college players leaving for the NBA.

It’s hard to argue with the sentiment, but Howie doesn’t name any names. Sure, he says O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon should leave early, but he doesn’t identify any of the guys that he thinks he should stay in school. That’s kind of a cop out. It’s like saying if you’re good enough to be drafted in the first round, you should go to the NBA, but if you’re not, you should stay in school. Wow, what a nugget of wisdom. That’s exactly how those players who are declaring for the draft but aren’t hiring an agent are approaching this. If they don’t get a good response from teams, they can still go back to school.

The conventional thinking is that the longer a player stays in college, the better he’ll be when he reaches the NBA. While this is true for most, there are those players whose apparent potential is greater than their actual potential. For those players, if it looks like they’ll be drafted in the first round, it’s smart to leave early and get that guaranteed money. It’s not good for the quality of the NBA or college basketball, but you can’t blame a kid for taking a shot at a multi-million dollar contract if someone’s willing to give it to him.

Final thoughts on my NCAA bracket picks

Chances are, if you followed my picks in your pool, you probably won some money. I placed second out 29 entries in one pool and seventh out of 89 entries in another. I would have done better in the second pool but the UCLA loss to Memphis knocked me out of the running. Yahoo says that my picks were in the 95th percentile, which is nice to see.

In total, an advantage in Sagarin rating of two or more points gave us the winner of 40 of 48 contests (83.3%). Last year’s winning percentage was 85.7% so I feel pretty confident about using this methodology for my bracket. There were 15 games that were too close to call, so I used other criteria to pick those games:

4+ seed advantage (2-1)
This played a role in three 6/11 matchups in the first round. Purdue and Oklahoma won, while USC lost to Kansas State. In retrospect, maybe I should have considered the location of that game (Omaha, Nebraska) more carefully.

Points per shot (4-4)
PPS is calculated by taking the total number of points divided by the total number of field goal and free throw attempts. A monkey could have picked four out of eight winners, but I still think that there’s merit to using this stat. I think it’s important to look at strength of schedule, however. It’s easy to score if you play mostly bad teams.

Location (2-1)
Location played a prominent role in three picks: Stanford over Marquette (in Anaheim), Texas over Stanford (in Houston) and Texas over Memphis (in Houston). It also played a factor in my Davidson pick (over Gonzaga in Raleigh) and I should have used it in the Oregon/Mississippi State matchup in Little Rock.

Gut (1-1)
I went with my gut for two picks. I took Pittsburgh over Michigan State because the Panthers were hot entering the tourney. I ignored my gut in the Tennessee/Louisville matchup, and I’m not sure what convinced me to take the Vols, so I’m going to pretend I followed my gut and won the pick. (Hey, sue me.)

I know that adds up to 16 games, but that’s because I ignored Memphis’ Sagarin rating advantage in their game against Texas and took the Longhorns in Houston. My bad.

Overall, I think the system worked pretty well. Next season, I plan to devise some sort of strength of schedule adjustment on PPS and see if that produces better results.

Indiana’s Gordon declares for draft, Budinger too

As expected, Indiana freshman phenom Eric Gordon declared for the draft yesterday.

Gordon, a third-team All-American, is the second member of the heralded 2008 freshman class to declare for the draft, joining Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless. Those who have not yet announced whether they will turn pro include centers Michael Beasley of Kansas State and Kevin Love of UCLA, both first-team All-Americans; Memphis guard Derrick Rose, a third-team All-American; and guard O.J. Mayo of Southern Cal, who was an honorable mention choice on the All-American list.

Gordon led the Big Ten in scoring (20.9 points), set school and Big Ten freshman scoring records with 669 points, and made the third most free throws by a Hoosier in a single season (231). He also tied Mike Woodson’s school record for most 30-point games by a freshman (three) and won the conference’s freshman player of the year award.

Gordon is one of the top shooting guard prospects, and NBADraft.net projects him to go #7 this summer, assuming all the aforementioned players decide to leave early.

Arizona’s Chase Budinger also declared himself eligible. His stock was probably a little higher at the end of last season, but he’s still projected to be a mid-first round pick.

They’re called “free” throws for a reason…

Wow, what a game!

Truth be told, I was rooting for Kansas. I picked them to win my bracket, so with the victory, some second place money is coming my way. (That damn Louisville/Tennessee game still haunts me!) I was also rooting for them because I think they’re the better-coached team. John Calipari has done a terrific job over the years in compiling loads of talent, but I’ve never liked the style of play he teaches. There is virtually no discernable structure on offense and when the pressure is really on, things tend to fall apart.

Memphis was plagued all year by poor free throw shooting, but had shot the ball well from the charity stripe during the tournament. Even deep into the second half, things were looking pretty good. Memphis was 9 of 12 from the line before Chris Douglas-Roberts missed three straight free throws to let Kansas back into the game with under 75 seconds to play. Then Derrick Rose failed to convert two free throws that would have sealed the game with 0:10 to play. If not for those misses, Mario Chalmers’ magnificent shot wouldn’t have mattered.

If I were a coach, I’d record the last three minutes of regulation and play it for my team at the beginning of each season. The lesson? When you’re shooting free throws in practice, concentrate! Imagine you’re at the Final Four and the game is on the line. Imagine the fans in the stands rooting against you.

Good free throw shooting is one of the areas of basketball that is often overlooked. It’s not as sexy as working on that double crossover move or pushing that three-point range out to 23 feet. It’s boring to shoot free throws, but more than anything else in basketball, you’ll see results in free throw shooting if you focus when you practice.

Bo Ryan would always have us shoot free throws to end the practice. We would run some lines and then five guys would step up to shoot. We had to make four out of five to get off the court. If we failed, we ran more lines and start the process all over again. Truth be told, the pressure I felt shooting those free throws almost matched that of a game. If I missed, I knew that I’d get all kinds of shit from my teammates. Calipari probably does something similar, but I doubt that he makes it as big of a priority as some of the other things he does in practice.

After the game, Clark Kellogg criticized Calipari for not fouling with under five seconds to play in regulation. The thinking is, when you’re up three, if you put a team to the line to shoot two free throws, you make it very difficult for the team to tie or win the game. In general, I agree with this strategy and in his post game interview, Calipari said that they did try to foul but were unsuccessful. It was a difficult situation because he wasn’t sure what position his team would be in because Rose was at the line. That’s why it’s so important to practice end-of-game situations.

Lastly, I didn’t like Calipari saying in his post-game interview that he didn’t like the fact that the refs were able to go to the video to change Rose’s desperation three-point bank shot to a two-point field goal. He said he wanted to see if he could change the rule. Was he joking? Maybe, but the overall tone of the interview was that “we should have won that game.” If Rose doesn’t bank in that shot, Kansas has the ball, down five, with more than four minutes to play. That’s hardly a comfortable margin for Memphis, a team that has struggled all year with their free throws.

Anyway, it was a terrific game, an amazing comeback, and a dominant overtime – a perfect end to another great NCAA tourney.

Chalmers Delivers

Mario Chalmers delivered the biggest shot of his career. His three pointer with 2 seconds left in regulation helped Kansas come from 9 down with just over 2 minutes.

Credit this win to three things. First, Bill Self tried everything he could to take Memphis out of their offensive game plan. He even tried a box and one. When that didn’t work he resulted to fouling. By starting to foul and continuing to foul they found Memphis’ achillis heel. Memphis missed 4 of 5 free throws in the last minute.

Third with a three point lead why didn’t Calipari have his team foul. He lost a chance for his first national championship when he didn’t elect to foul. Poor decision making by Calipari and his team cost them this championship more than anything that Kansas did.

This Kansas team was deeper than any team in the tourney, but it was the mental toughness that Bill Self developed in his team that gave them the ability to come from behind.

Darrell Arthur proved he was the best post player in the game. Derrick Rose showed why he is the best point in the game. However, he will always be remembered for missing the free throw that would have clinched it.

Finally, could this be the last game Bill Self coaches at Kansas. Oklahoma State has offered him a $6 million signing bonus, plus a salary of $4 million per year. That is a lot of money, but I think he will pass on it.

Tonight it is good to be a Jayhawk. If you are from Memphis, look for a mass exodus to the NBA. Rose, Douglas Roberts and Coach Cal will all be heading to the pros. Look for Cal te take the Bulls opening.

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