Author: David Medsker (Page 11 of 20)

Bullz-Eye 2006 Baseball Preview

The most enjoyable part of writing my 2005 preview for BE was the response from you, gentle readers. The mail that I received on that piece was well worth the hours that I put into it. Some people sent me detailed, Bill James-style stat projections, while others just said that I “suuuuuuuuuck.” That last person was a Washington Nationals fan…at the All Star break, when they were still in first place. We all know who got the last laugh on that one.

So I’m poring over the projected lineups and pitching depth charts for all the teams, and the only thing I can think is, Man, did a lot of players switch teams. Matt Morris is a Giant, Fatty Ponson is a Cardinal, Carlos Delgado is a Met and Josh Beckett is a Red Sock. Some things, though, stay the same: Kerry Wood is already on the disabled list, and George Steinbrenner is overpaying for pitching ($18 million for Kyle Farnsworth? You got served, sucker).

Once again, I attempt the impossible and list my projections for each division, which will surely look ridiculous at the All Star break, and absurd by season’s end.

National League East
1) New York Mets
Theme Song: “At Last,” Etta James
And thus, their season is already jinxed before it’s even begun, by the very notion that I am expecting them to win the East. My stepbrother, a dyed-in-the-wool Mutts fan, will surely kill me. But I can’t help it, that lineup kills, bro. Reyes and LoDuca are at the top, followed by a murderer’s row of Beltran, Delgado, Wright and Floyd. These guys are going to score tons of runs, and while their pitching is still lacking, it’s good enough to keep them in the game (look for Aaron Heilman to break out big time if the Mets give him a shot in the rotation), and putting Billy Wagner in the closer spot in place of the piñata that closed for them last year (Braden Looper, who’s now in St. Louis) is a big boost. Of course, the Mets being the Mets, this could all go horribly wrong; Pedro’s got a bad toe, and Delgado has a sore something or other. But at the moment, the planets seem to be aligned. Even John Smoltz thinks the Mets are going to win the East this year.

2) Philadelphia Phillies
Theme Song: “Long Shot,” Aimee Mann
I took a long look at Atlanta for this spot – after all, I did say last year that until someone knocks them out of the top spot, you have to go with them as the favorites – but it ends here. Like the Mets, Philadelphia has two great table setters at the top of the order in Rollins and Rowand (whom they got from the White Sox in the improbable trade of Jim Thome), and any one of the following four hitters (Abreu, Utley, Burrell, Howard) can go yard seemingly at will. Abreu’s colossal fall-off after the All Star Game was disturbing, but he’s still a perennial 30-30 threat, while Utley is the next Jeff Kent, though hopefully with much less jackassity. On the surface, the starting rotation would concern me, since Cory Lidle and Ryan Franklin are big time Stifley Stiffersons, but if the Phils are smart, they will take two of the three guys fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation, Ryan Madson and Robinson Tejeda, and give them each their own slot, hopefully kicking Franklin to the curb. If that happens, they could cause all kinds of trouble. One question, though: why is management so eager to get rid of Abreu? He was part of every trade rumor out of Philly this offseason.

To read the rest of the preview, click here. And don’t forget to come back to Scores Report to sound off on your picks to win it all.

I believe he’s lying

A few weeks ago, Baseball Prospectus reported that Cubs pitcher Mark Prior was suffering from shoulder problems. The Cubs vehemently denied this, saying that Prior was just fine, despite the fact that he hadn’t made an appearance in anything more than a simulated game. On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus, those vicious, slanderous bastards, were vindicated. Prior went to Los Angeles to have Dr. Lewis Yocum check out his shoulder. And just like that, Glendon Rusch is the #3 starter. Yikes.

General Manager Jim Hendry is all too aware of the perception by many of this news coming out now, as opposed to the beginning of spring training:

“Obviously, it will be perceived any way people want to perceive it. But there is no advantage of us holding back until March 14, then discussing a problem we knew about earlier.”

To paraphrase Rotoworld, you bet your ass there’s an advantage. An allegedly healthy Prior relieves the Cubs of the responsibility of having to hit the free agent market for another pitcher (though they should have done that either way). An allegedly healthy Prior wins as many games as Rusch, Jerome Williams and Rich Hill combined. Lastly, an allegedly healthy Prior allows the Cubs to tell their fans that they have a chance to compete, which gives the fans hope. And fans with hope buy tickets. The Cubs had every reason in the world to bury this story as quickly as possible.

The Cubs have trumpeted Prior and Kerry Wood as the two men who would take the Cubbie faithful to the promise land. They then surrounded these two with a manager (Dusty Baker) who doesn’t have the slightest idea when to pull a pitcher out of a game, and a pitching coach (Larry Rothschild) who doesn’t know bad mechanics when he sees them. Steve Stone, of course, does know bad mechanics when he sees them, being a former pitcher, and he urged Wood to change his mechanics or start selling cars. The Cubs repaid Stone’s honest assessment by jettisoning him from the broadcast booth. If I’m Carlos Zambrano, I’m signing as a free agent with the Orioles and Leo Mazzone as soon as I’m able to.

In the end, it’s stuff like this that makes Cubs fans suspect that the Tribune Company, owners of the Cubs, care more about making money than they care about winning. And if Rafael Furcal’s decision to play for Los Angeles instead of Chicago is any indication, even the potential free agents are starting to realize that, too. Combine that with the baseball renaissance on the South Side, and it seems the Cubs have the making of a meltdown on their hands.

But maybe that’s a good thing. Maybe then the Tribune Company will try harder to win. Or, with any luck, they’ll sell the team to someone else, someone who cares more about the game than sweetheart broadcast deals, corporate synergy, and licensing.

Team USA enters the Matrix

Neo wishes he could dodge bullets the way that Team USA did last night. While pundits analyzed the rules of the World Baseball Classic, and determined that Team USA would be eliminated if Mexico won by a score of 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1, no one seemed to consider the possibility that Mexico might beat the ever-loving snot out of Canada (which they did, 9-1), and that that would put Team USA back in control of its own destiny. All they have to do is beat a South African team that gave up 10 runs against Canada and 11 runs against Mexico. Oh, and South Africa has to face Roger Clemens. Seems like a done deal, right?

Not so fast, punk. South Africa has absolutely nothing to lose, while Team USA has everything to lose, which means the American hitters could press too much and psyche themselves out while the South Africans just go in a hackin’, and whatever happens happens. Now, I’m not saying that I think South Africa is going to pull the mother of all upsets, but you know, even the Royals win sometimes. Team USA would be wise to adopt Ben Stein’s tactic of taking all challenges seriously, because if they lose to South Africa, they will look seriously bad.

Update: After two innings, Team USA is winning 10-0. Whew.

The Big Bounce?

After losing 8-6 to Canada yesterday, Team USA actually put itself in the position to be bounced out of the World Baseball Classic in the first round. They are tied with Mexico for second place – Canada, which sports such legends as Matt Stairs and Stubby Clapp, is 2-0 – in a four-team division where only the top two teams advance. Yikes.

The easiest way for Team USA to get into the next round is for Canada to beat Mexico today, while Team USA beats South Africa tomorrow (which doesn’t seem to be a problem, since both Canada and Mexico have already done so). But if both Mexico and Team USA win, the team who allows the fewest runs will advance. At the moment, Mexico has allowed six runs. Team USA has allowed eight, which means no one loves Jason Bay right now more than Team USA’s pitching staff. If Mexico wins 1-0, Team USA is done.

Let’s think about this for a second: Team USA actually needs help to advance to the second round of the World Baseball Classic. Team freaking USA, the team that, despite the laundry list of defections and last minute replacements, still has a murderer’s row of hitters and ridiculous pitching. But even the Devil Rays beat the Yankees from time to time – actually, the Rays are Yankee killers, go figure – as evidenced by Derrek Lee and Alex Rodriguez getting schooled by a AA pitcher in the Orioles organization yesterday. If they, God help them, lose to South Africa tomorrow, it might go down as one of the biggest flops in American sports history.

Now, you would think that by saying this, it means that I think the whole WBC idea was a bad one, which couldn’t be further from the truth. That game between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic was one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen. The joint was jumping, like a soccer match during the World Cup. No American baseball game has ever looked like that, and it was fascinating to watch. Plus, even with the number of American players who are not contributing, the team is still stacked. They should be beating everyone in the first round, period. If they fail to advance to the next round, Bud Selig’s head just might explode like the weightlifter in “Final Destination 3.”

Shocking to think that the three games into the World Baseball Classic, Team USA could already have nothing to play for. Critics will surely jump in to say, “See, I told you it was a bad idea.” But it’s not a bad idea: it’s a great idea that’s taking place at a bad time. Do this in the fall, and see how many more players sign up to represent their country.

Barry Bonds is a drug whore

Well, if authors Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams are to be believed.

Sports Illustrated is reporting that the men’s upcoming book, “Game of Shadows,” goes into painstaking detail of Bonds’ intricate, and lengthy, use of steroids. Bonds, they claim, began using them in 1998 – not coincidentally, the year that Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were co-MVP’s and SI’s Men of the Year thanks to their home run onslaught – and took every type of steroid you can imagine. Pills, drops, cream, injections, you name it. He was even taking insulin. And they claimed that he screamed for his juice like a junkie jonesing for a fix.

The authors write that [Greg] Anderson started Bonds on Winstrol, also known as stanozolol, the longtime favorite steroid of bodybuilders, disgraced sprinter Ben Johnson and baseball player Rafael Palmeiro. In 100 days, Bonds packed on 15 pounds of muscle, and at age 35 hit home runs at the best rate of his career, once every 10.4 at bats. But he also grew too big, too fast. He tore his triceps tendon, telling [mistress Kimberly] Bell that the steroids “makes me grow faster, but if you’re not careful, you can blow it out.”

The book said Anderson and Bonds subsequently tweaked the program, adding such drugs as the steroid Deca-Durabolin and growth hormone, which allowed Bonds to retain his energy and physique without rigorous training. Not only did the growth hormone keep him fresh, but after complaining in 1999 about difficulty tracking pitches, he noticed it improved his eyesight as well.

Bonds added more drugs after the 2000 season, when Anderson hooked up Bonds with BALCO and its founder, [Stan] Conte, according to the authors. In addition to the Cream and the Clear, the steroids designed to be undetectable, Bonds took such drugs as Clomid, a women’s infertility drug thought to help a steroid user recover his natural testosterone production, and Modafinil, a narcolepsy drug used as a powerful stimulant.

Whereas Anderson’s drug acumen had been forged in the gym culture, Conte and his chemists brought Bonds to another level of sophistication, by prescribing him elaborate cocktails of drugs designed to be even more effective and undetectable. For instance, the authors write that in 2002, when Bonds won his fifth MVP Award and had a .700 on-base percentage in the World Series, he was fueled by meticulous three-week cycles in which he injected growth hormone every other day, took the Cream and the Clear in the days in between, and capped the cycle with Clomid. The cycle was followed by one week off. The authors write that Anderson usually administered the drugs to Bonds at Bonds’ home, using a needle to inject the growth hormone and a syringe without a needle to squirt the Clear under his tongue.

It was bad enough that no one believed Bonds when he claimed that he unknowingly took the cream and the clear after the BALCO investigation report leaked. But he’s toast now. Even if the whole thing is bunk – and given the detail of Bonds’ alleged regimen, this can’t all be bunk – everyone knows that the words of the accuser are always more powerful than the denial of the person accused. Bonds, of course, is going to deny that any of this is true; indeed, he walked away from a bunch of reporters that asked him about it, saying, “I won’t even look at (the book). There’s no need to.” But in his heart of hearts, he has to know that this story is not only going to hound him all year, but for the rest of his life.

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