The fantasy season is more than half over and your team is either in the running for the playoffs or it’s not. A few good waiver wire pickups aside, which category your team falls in largely depends on what players you picked (and when you picked them) on draft day. Let’s take a look at the booms and busts of the first ten rounds of an average draft. I pulled the average draft position (ADP) from Antsports.com for the month of August. For the rankings, the scoring system is fairly standard, but includes one point per reception. Next to each name is a positive or negative number, which represents the difference between the player’s draft position and their actual midseason ranking. A positive number is good and a negative number is, well, bad.
ROUND 1
Boom: None
This was a very bad year to be selecting outside of the Top 3, as LT2, Alexander and Edge are the only first round picks to meet their draft positions in the first round.
Bust: Kevin Jones -23
ADP: 1.10 (overall draft slot – 9th)
Position Drafted: RB8
Current Rank: RB31
The Kevin Jones hype was in full effect after he put up Top 10 numbers over the last half of the 2004 season. It didn’t help that John Clayton called him “the best back in the league” after seeing him in training camp, hyping him even more.
Dishonorable Mention:
Peyton Manning (drafted QB1, ranked QB8) -7
Jamal Lewis (drafted RB10, ranked RB33) -23
Deuce McAllister (drafted RB5, ranked RB30) -25
ROUND 2
Boom: LaMont Jordan +15
ADP: 2.10 (22nd)
PD: RB17
CR: RB2
I liked Jordan a lot going into the season, but I wasn’t expecting him to be the #2 RB at this point. Teams that were lucky enough to grab LT2 or Alexander in the first round also had a shot at Jordan in the 2nd. That backfield is tough to beat.
Honorable Mention:
Brian Westbrook (drafted RB16, ranked RB6) +10
Tiki Barber (drafted RB12, ranked RB7) +5
Bust: Ahman Green -25
ADP: 2.05 (16th)
PD: RB14
CR: RB39
I thought Green would have a decent year, but injuries cut short what was already becoming a disappointing season. The future of the Packers RB situation is up in the air.
Dishonorable Mention:
Daunte Culpepper (drafted QB2, ranked QB21) -19
ROUND 3
Boom: Steven Jackson +13
ADP: 2.12 (25th)
PD: RB18
CR: RB5
The presence of Marshall Faulk weighted Jackson’s ADP down, but those owners that took him in the late 2nd or early 3rd are getting great results.
Honorable Mention:
Antonio Gates (drafted TE2, ranked TE1) +1
Bust: Nate Burleson -81
ADP: 4.02 (35th)
PD: WR10
CR: WR91
He eclipsed 1,000 the previous season and played well in games that Randy Moss missed, so all signs pointed to a big season for Burlseon. He was a victim of the collapse of the Minnesota passing attack – owners still sitting on him can only hope that Brad Johnson can make it all better. I drafted him in two leagues and still have him in one.
Dishonorable Mention:
Tony Gonzalez (drafted TE1, ranked TE9) -8
J.J. Arrington (drafted RB21, ranked RB58) -37
ROUND 4
Boom: Steve Smith +13
ADP: 4.09 (43rd)
PD: WR14
CR: WR1
I loved Smith going into the season, but only managed to get him in one league. Much to my chagrin, I passed on him for Nate Burleson and Javon Walker in two leagues. He has been unstoppable and is in the running for this season’s league and fantasy MVP.
Honorable Mention:
Warrick Dunn (drafted RB25, ranked RB11) +14
Bust: Roy Williams -72
ADP: 4.07 (41st)
PD: WR13
CR: WR85
Roy has missed several games with injuries and hasn’t been that impressive when he’s played, disappointing fantasy owners around the country.
Dishonorable Mention:
Michael Bennett (drafted RB23, ranked RB53) -30
DeShaun Foster (drafted RB24, ranked RB37) -13
ROUND 5
Boom: Larry Fitzgerald +15
ADP: 5.12 (58th)
PD: WR21
CR: WR6
Fitzgerald has really shined in his second year with Arizona and should continue to put up big numbers as the Cardinals play from behind every week.
Honorable Mention:
Larry Johnson (drafted RB28, ranked RB19 and rising) +9
Bust: Michael Clayton -43
ADP: 4.12 (49th)
PD: WR17
CR: WR60
A lot of folks thought they were getting a good deal, picking Clayton in the 4th or 5th round. His poor performance is a bit of a mystery, but Joey Galloway’s emergence as a solid #1 WR is probably the main reason.
ROUND 6
Boom: Carson Palmer +8
ADP: 6.12 (72nd)
PD: QB9
CR: QB1
Palmer has had a great season thus far, leading the Bengals to a surprising 7-2 record. After a good second half last season, there were high expectations heading into this seasons, but those expectations were tempered by a rather poor preseason.
Honorable Mention:
Jeremy Shockey – (drafted TE4, ranked TE2) +2
Bust: Lee Suggs -67
ADP: 6.11 (69th)
PD: RB33
CR: RB100+
Many, myself included, believe that Suggs is the most gifted RB in Cleveland, but the Injured One has barely sniffed the field this season.
ROUND 7
Boom: Thomas Jones +27
ADP: 7.04 (78th)
PD: RB35
CR: RB8
Everyone thought that Cedric Benson would be the starter for the Bears this year, but his holdout coupled with Jones’ tremendous performance means that only an injury is going to send Jones to the bench. Are his ribs OK?
Bust: Ravens Defense -22
ADP: 7.08 (81st)
PD: DT1
CR: DT23
It used to be that you could count on the Ravens to give you Top 5 DT numbers, but it’s not looking good this year. Proof positive that it is a good idea to wait on drafting a defense.
Dishonorable Mention:
Lee Evans (drafted WR28, ranked WR67) -39
Brandon Stokley (drafted WR27, ranked WR61) -34
Ashley Lelie (drafted WR25, ranked WR43) -18
ROUND 8
Boom: Plaxico Burress +24
ADP: 8.03 (43rd)
PD: WR31
CR: WR7
So much for avoiding WRs playing with new teams. Burress has found a home in New York and it seems like he and QB Eli Manning will be a force to reckon with for years to come.
Honorable Mention:
Drew Brees (drafted QB14, ranked QB6) +8
Bust: Charles Rogers -66
ADP: 8.12 (95th)
PD: WR34
CR: WR100+
Rogers did little for the Lions before getting suspended four games for violating the NFL substance abuse policy. Now he appears to be in Mariucci’s dog house. Ugh.
ROUND 9
Boom: Santana Moss +32
ADP: 9.05 (99th)
PD: WR35
CR: WR3
Moss is another WR flourishing in his first year with a new team. He’s also benefited from surprisingly great QB play from Mark Brunell.
Honorable Mention:
Eddie Kennison (drafted WR37, ranked WR21) +16
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (drafted WR36, ranked WR22) +14
Bust: Eric Johnson -92
ADP: 9.05 (100th)
PD: TE8
CR: TE100+
After a great year in 2004, Johnson hasn’t played this season due to injury. Bold owners who drafted him have been submarined in a bad way.
ROUND 10
Boom: Mike Anderson +20
ADP: 10.04 (113th)
PD: RB42
CR: RB22
Many thought that Tatum Bell would take over as the Denver starter, but HC Mike Shanahan has always been a tough one to read. Even though Bell has shown flashes of brilliance, Shanny continues to stick with Anderson as his starter.
Honorable Mention:
Donte Stallworth (drafted W38, ranked WR19) +19
L.J. Smith (drafted TE11, ranked TE6) +5
Bust: Mark Campbell -29
ADP: 10.01 (111th)
PD: TE10
CR: TE39
Campbell’s fantasy relevancy disappeared when Drew Bledsoe left in the offseason.
Dishonorable Mention:
Joey Harrington (drafted QB19, ranked QB29) -10
Keary Colbert (drafted WR39, ranked WR88) -49
So there you have it, the biggest values and the biggest busts of each round. Just think, had you played your cards perfectly, taking each player one round earlier than their ADP, you could have had this All-Boom roster:
QB1: Carson Palmer (5th)
RB7: Tiki Barber (1st)
RB2: LaMont Jordan (2nd)
WR1: Steve Smith (3rd)
WR6: Larry Fitzgerald (4th)
TE6: L.J. Smith (9th)
RB8: Thomas Jones (6th)
WR7: Plaxico Burress (7th)
WR3: Santana Moss (8th)
Don’t feel bad; I doubt anyone was able to secure that roster. Conversely, it could be much worse. Here’s the All-Bust squad you would have had if you had picked a Bust player in the same round as his ADP:
QB21: Daunte Culpepper (2nd)
RB30: Deuce McAllister (1st)
RB58: J.J. Arrington (3rd)
WR85: Roy Williams (4th)
WR60: Michael Clayton (5th)
TE100+: Eric Johnson (9th)
DT23: Ravens DT (7th)
TE39: Mark Campbell (10th)
RB100+: Lee Suggs (6th)
WR100+: Charles Rogers (8th)
If you drafted two or three guys on this list without any of the All-Boom players, chances are you’re struggling. Don’t fret. There is still a month before the playoffs – anything can happen.
