On Selection Sunday, CBS’ Clark Kellogg said that this would be the first year that the four #1 seeds would make it to the Final Four. Two weeks later, we’re looking at a Final Four without a #1 seed for the first time in 26 years. Reportedly, only four contestants in ESPN’s Tourney Challenge picked the four remaining teams correctly and one of them mistakenly picked George Mason because they were thinking of George Washington, a team that was ranked in the top 10 for most of the season. There is no word on how many brackets these particular contestants filled out. It would be quite impressive if it were one or two, but if it was 50 or 100, not so much.
I wouldn’t mention my bracket if not for how it went down in flames on Saturday and Sunday. Having correctly picked six of the Elite Eight (missing only LSU and George Mason), I was in first place and all of my Final Four teams were still alive. Of course, I picked Texas, Memphis, UConn and Villanova. Each team was favored and each team subsequently lost. You might think that this would send me to the looney bin, but I was actually more impressed with how the four remaining teams played and I’m happy they won.
This Final Four is all about grit. Take #11-seed George Mason, who shrugged off the Selection Sunday bid controversy to dispatch #6-seed Michigan State, #3-seed North Carolina, #7-seed Wichita State and #1-seed Connecticut in overtime. Though I had UConn winning it all, I couldn’t help but root for the Patriots, whose feisty play put the Huskies’ “cooler-than-thou” attitude to shame.
How about the #2-seed UCLA? Sure, they can’t score, but they have the best defense in the tourney and they never stop playing. With things looking especially grim – down nine with three minutes to go against Gonzaga – the Bruins scored the final 11 points to stun the Bulldogs, who seemed to have the game under control.
Let’s not forget #4-seed LSU. They played the best team defense I’ve seen anyone play against J.J. Redick en route to a victory over #1 Duke. Then, in the overtime of the Regional Final, with all the momentum going in the Longhorns’ favor, they picked apart a sloppy Texas team to win by 10.
This brings us to the favorite, #3-seed Florida. The Gators are peaking at the right time by sharing the ball offensively and playing excellent team defense. With margins of victory of 16, 22, 4 and 13, no team is coming into the Final Four the way the Gators are.
So how are the games going to go? We all have our theories, and here are mine:
#3 Florida (-6) vs. #11 George Mason: Saturday, 6:07 pm (CBS)
A #11-seed has only made the Final Four once before – the 1986 LSU Tigers. George Mason is riding high after beating UConn in overtime, but the Patriots are underdogs against the Gators. This actually plays in the Patriots’ favor, as they’ll have little to lose while most of the pressure is on Florida.
George Mason has both good interior and perimeter play, getting double-digit scoring from five players. Jai Lewis and Will Thomas lead the Patriots on the inside – the duo combined for 14-24 shooting against Connecticut. Lamar Butler, Folarin Campbell and Tony Skin work the perimeter, with all three shooting 34% or better from behind the arc. The Patriots’ offense is pretty simple, with Lewis and Thomas on each block while Butler, Campbell and Skin roam outside.
The two teams are quite similar in makeup. The Gators also get double-digit scoring from five players and are led inside by future lottery picks Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Taurean Green, Corey Brewer and Lee Humphrey can all shoot it from long range, while Green and Brewer are adept at taking it to the hole. For a group of talented youngsters, they share the ball extremely well and seem to feed off of Noah’s energy, which is expressed in the form of constant screaming and chest-pounding.
If George Mason is able to keep the game close deep into the second half, it will be difficult to put them away. They are feisty and know how to win, while the Gators might feel the pressure of being the favorite. But the length of Noah (6’11”) and Horford (6’9”) presents serious problems for Lewis and Thomas, who both stand 6’7”. Unless the perimeter players for George Mason are able to keep the game close, the Gators could jump out to a double-digit lead, putting the Patriots in a deep hole. I’ve got to go with the favorites in this one, but the Patriots do have a good shot, and I’ll be rooting for them.
#2 UCLA vs. #4 LSU (-2): Saturday, 8:47 pm (CBS)
The over/under of 121 seems high in this match-up of defensive-oriented teams. As evidenced by the two-point spread, this is a tough game to call. I think UCLA is a little better defensively while LSU is a little better on the offensive end.
While Darrel Mitchell can score from the perimeter, LSU will look inside to SEC Player of the Year “Baby” Glen Davis and SEC Freshman of the Year Tyrus Thomas for points on the offensive end. Thomas is a rising star and would likely be a lottery pick if he were to declare for the draft after this season.
UCLA’s only true scorer is Arron Afflalo, and even he’s inconsistent. Jordan Farmar rounds out a good backcourt, which is the Bruins’ strength. However, center Ryan Hollins has been playing great of late and his production against Gonzaga and Memphis (26 points, 17 rebounds) is the reason that the Bruins are still playing. The game could come down to the Hollins/Thomas match-up inside. Hollins is long and is capable of keeping Thomas off the glass.
The way that LSU shut down Redick and how they limited Texas to just 56 points in regulation leads me to believe that they are closer to UCLA defensively than UCLA is to them offensively, which gives the Tigers a slight advantage. I really think this is going to be a low-scoring affair, with both teams finishing somewhere in the 50s, barring overtime.
Summary
This Final Four is so balanced that I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the teams cutting down the nets on Monday. However, when making picks, you have to choose the teams with the best chance to advance, and I think Florida and LSU fall into that category, with Florida having a slight edge in the possible title match-up. But these games are so tight that they might come down to one or two possession, which means that anything can happen. This tournament has been filled with nail biters and I wouldn’t be surprised if the last three games go the same way.
