Author: John Paulsen (Page 864 of 937)

Dallas 117, Phoenix 101 (Mavs lead series, 3-2)
Back in the 1998 NBA draft, my favorite team – the Milwaukee Bucks – selected a little-known 20 year-old kid out of Germany, Dirk Nowitzki, with the ninth pick and promptly traded him – along with Pat Garrity – to the Dallas Mavericks for Robert “Tractor” Traylor. At the time, Milwaukee had a nucleus of Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson and Terrell Brandon, so a “beefy” power forward made sense. The Mavericks had the sixth overall pick and the team knew nobody really cared about Nowitzki, so they figured they could convince a team with a later pick to draft Nowitzki for them and then make the trade, getting another player (Garrity) in return. Fast forward almost eight years, “Tractor” Traylor is pounding donuts at a Krispy Kreme somewhere while Dirk Nowitzki is dropping 50 on the Suns, giving his team a 3-2 advantage in the Western Conference Finals.

After shooting a miserable 3-13 in the Mavs’ loss in Game 4, Nowitzki bounced back, going 14-26 from the field and 17-18 from the free throw line en route to a franchise-playoff record 50 points. The game was closer than the final score would indicate; the Suns actually led 77-70 with 3:27 remaining in the third quarter. But the Mavs scored 10 unanswered points as part of a 12-4 run to close out the quarter with a one point lead. After a Steve Nash jump shot with 7:30 to play in the fourth, the Suns trailed by just three, 96-93, before the Mavs went on a 21-8 run to finish the game. Josh Howard is becoming a valuable sidekick to Nowitzki. He scored 23 points and grabbed seven boards in just 31 minutes of playing time (due to foul trouble). Tim Thomas scored 26 in the loss, while Nash and Shawn Marion each scored 20. But it was Thomas that made the biggest mistake of the game; after he blew a kiss to Nowitzki during an altercation in the third quarter, the big German went off. Lesson learned – you do not want to piss off the big German. The pressure is on the Suns now to play well at home in Game 6, while the Mavs can relax with the knowledge that a possible Game 7 will be on their home court, where Nowitzki obviously shines.

By the way, did I mention – in the 1998 draft – that the Celtics took Paul Pierce with the tenth pick?

Cap Situation

With Michael Olowokandi’s $6 M salary coming off the books, the Celtics have committed to a payroll of $53.2 M next season. Paul Pierce is the team’s lone star, and with a EPM of .626 (15th best in the league), he’s worth the $15.1 M he’s set to make next season. He has the option of extending his contract through 2007-08, but may not if he doesn’t like the direction the franchise is headed.

But it appears that the Celtics are headed in the right direction. They have four young players – Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West and Ryan Gomes – who were all in the Top 150 in EPM last season. Throw in Tony Allen and Gerald Green, and the team has a nice nucleus of good, young players. And young players are cheap.

That’s not the case with the team’s most egregious contract – Raef LaFrentz. His contract is worth $10.9 M next season with a player option of two more years for a total of $24.5 M. Considering his mediocre EPM of .423, he is way overpaid; the team simply won’t have any serious cap flexibility until his contract is off the books.

At $36 M over the next three years, Wally Szczerbiak is not a good value, but his shooting touch (he’s a career 50% shooter) is a nice compliment to Pierce’s post up game. Vin Baker’s $5.3 M contract comes off the books after next season, giving the team some much needed cap room next summer.

Offseason Blueprint

It’s unlikely that anyone is going to take LaFrentz off the team’s hands, so GM Danny Ainge simply has to wait it out. Pierce is the wildcard in Boston, and the team needs to keep him happy to ensure that he sticks around for two more seasons.

The surprising thing about the Celtics’ young players is that the talent is spread equally among all positions. Perkins and Jefferson are inside players, Gomes and Green are best suited for small forward, and West and Allen are backcourt players. If these six are able to collectively step up their games next season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston fighting for a playoff spot next April.

The team has the #7 pick in this year’s draft, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Brandon Roy. I doubt Roy will be available at #7, but if he is, he’d be a steal and a great fit. Since the team is so balanced, they really could go any direction with this pick.

Danny Ainge has done a nice job since he’s taken over GM duties in Boston. He’s drafted well and cleared the way for that young talent to develop by jettisoning Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. The turnaround is apparent, but will Pierce leave after next season in his quest for a ring? It’s a lot easier to win a title when you have another superstar to play with and the Celtics just don’t have another star…yet. It’s possible that one of the young Celtics will develop into that role or maybe the franchise will land a star in this year’s draft.

Notes:

Boston’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Paul Pierce 0.626 # 15
Al Jefferson 0.536 # 42
Kendrick Perkins 0.500 # 73
Wally Szczerbiak 0.462 # 107
Delonte West 0.448 # 123
Ryan Gomes 0.424 # 148
Raef Lafrentz 0.423 # 149
Tony Allen 0.377 # 221
Gerald Green 0.374 # 225
Michael Olowokandi 0.354 # 260
Orien Greene 0.267 # 325
Brian Scalabrine 0.246 # 341

With seven players (four under 25 years of age) in the Top 150, there is reason for optimism in Beantown. One way or another, the team needs to find a complimentary star to play alongside Paul Pierce. If he demands a trade next season or decides not to exercise his player option next summer, it will drastically change the course of the franchise.

Detroit 91, Miami 78 (Heat lead series, 3-2)
They are called “free throws” for a reason. There you stand, fifteen feet from the basket, and you get to take an uncontested shot that’s worth one point. It’s not that complicated. The Heat lost this game because they went 6-20 (30%) from the charity stripe. And it wasn’t just Shaquille O’Neal (1-5) throwing up bricks. Dwayne Wade, Udonis Haslem and Gary Payton, who all shoot over 78% from the line, went a combined 1-8 from the line. Tayshaun Prince led the Pistons with 29 points, while Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton chipped in with 17 and 16, respectively. Wade led the Heat with 23 points while Shaquille O’Neal added 19 despite only playing 31 minutes due to foul trouble in the first half. This was the Pistons’ third elimination game in these playoffs and they must win two more to get to the Finals. Game 6 becomes a game that Miami needs to win, because they don’t want to go back to Detroit with the series on the line. With pressure on both teams, it should be a good one.

Cap Situation

Minnesota is on the books for over $51 M for the next three years, headlined by Kevin Garnett’s contract, which still has three years/$66 M remaining. While this seems like an incredible amount, a closer look at the numbers reveals that Garnett’s contract is reasonable given his production. Garnett is the league’s most efficient player at 30.3 per game and .778 per minute. At a salary of $18 M for last season, his $/EFF of $7,816 wasn’t far off the league average of $7,070.

Ricky Davis is signed for two more years at an average of $6.6 M per. The team would be hard-pressed to replace his 19 points, five rebounds and five assists at a cheaper price – his EPM is a mediocre .425, probably because he plays so many minutes (41.2 per game). However, the team’s VP of basketball operations – Kevin McHale – said in April that he was “very disappointed” with Davis’ defense this season, and this is an area that Davis will need to improve if the Timberwolves hope to return to the playoffs.

Mark Blount (4 years/$28.2 M) isn’t especially productive, but he did put up 10 points and five boards for Minnesota. Five boards a game isn’t very many for a center, but there aren’t that many rebounds to be had when Garnett is clearing 13 per game.

The Timberwolves’ guard situation is in flux. Their best guard, Marcus Banks, who averaged 12 points and five assists after the Davis/Wally Szczerbiak trade brought him to Minnesota, is a free agent and the team needs to re-sign him or find a suitable replacement in the draft or free agency. After trading away Sam Cassell (and a protected first round pick) to the Clippers for Marko Jaric, the team basically gave up on him as a starter. Jaric wants to play point guard, but at 6’7” is more suited for the off-guard role. The team owes him $32.8 M over the next five years.

Of all the Timberwolves’ contracts, Troy Hudson’s is the worst. He is signed for four more years at the tune of $24.6 M. This is a guy who averaged 10 points and three assists, while shooting a miserable 38% from the field.

Offseason Blueprint

Garnett is 30 so the window is slowly closing on his opportunity for a title. The team has gone backwards over the last three years; after a 58-win season in 2004, the team won 44 games in 2005 and just 33 in 2006. This is cause for serious concern.

McHale hasn’t proven to be very good at his job. The Davis/Szczerbiak trade was just okay, while the Cassell/Jaric trade has blown up in his face. He hasn’t drafted very well, either. In 2005, he passed on Danny Granger in favor of Rashad McCants, whose defensive intensity has since been called into question. In 2003, he drafted Ndudi Ebi instead of Leandro Barbosa or Josh Howard. Of course, McHale’s Joe Smith debacle cost the franchise its picks in 2002 and 2004, putting the franchise in a bad situation.

Yet this man still has a job. And it’s my job to help him.

If the team isn’t committed to Jaric, they need to move him and try to acquire a second tier player in return. It would make sense to land Mike James or Jason Terry via a sign-and-trade, and Jaric is probably team’s best trade asset. Garnett is the ultimate teammate and needs shooters and scorers around him. Davis is a start, but James and Terry would help immensely. Marcus Banks could also be re-signed and dealt if the team doesn’t think he’s the long-term answer at point guard. Banks is young, but still shot 47% from the field, so I wouldn’t be that quick to get rid of him.

A lot of mock drafts are predicting that the team will take Rudy Gay with the #6 overall pick. I don’t think this team needs another soft player with a questionable heart. Brandon Roy, Randy Foye or Marcus Williams would make more sense. Landing Roy at #6 would be a steal. The team could also use another big, but it will be tough to land one in free agency considering the team’s cap situation.

It makes a lot of sense to pair Banks with Roy in the backcourt, with Davis, Garnett and Blount up front. The team could then use Jaric to get a backup front line player, allowing the defensive-minded Hassell to relieve Roy and Davis. If the team decides to let Banks go, they need to find a way to land Terry, James or another point guard capable of scoring.

Notes:

Minnesota’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Kevin Garnett 0.778 # 1
Eddie Griffin 0.439 # 131
Ricky Davis 0.425 # 144
Marcus Banks 0.402 # 180
Mark Blount 0.395 # 189
Rashad McCants 0.360 # 252
Anthony Carter 0.350 # 264
Marko Jaric 0.348 # 268
Troy Hudson 0.325 # 287
Trenton Hassell 0.279 # 315
Justin Reed 0.267 # 324
Mark Madsen 0.257 # 335

Garnett is content to let others shoot while he dominates just about every other facet of the game. The key is to find players who shoot a high percentage while also playing tough defense. If McHale is able to add one or two solid free agents along with a good draft pick, he might be able to get Minnesota back in the playoffs within a couple of years. For some reason, I’m not holding my breath.

It looks like the Toronto Raptors would like to exchange their #1 overall pick for a pick in the #5-#10 range along with another pick or a dependable veteran.

Two players that the Raptors will target in that area are UConn PG Marcus Williams and Washington SG Brandon Roy.

With the team’s strength in the front court with Chris Bosh and Charlie Villanueva, a bigman such as Lamarcus Aldridge or Italian Andrea Bargnani make less sense. Also factoring into the equation is the fact that this is not a great draft to have the top overall selection, so a team such as Toronto could add a talented piece (veteran player) through trade and pick up a player in the mid lotto area who could end up just as good as the top pick in the long run.

I get the feeling that Mike James won’t be playing for the Raptors next season.