Cap Situation
With Mike Dunleavy’s 5-year/$44 M extension last summer, the Warriors owe approximately $64 M in payroll next season. Dunleavy was coming off his best season (13 points, six rebounds, 45% shooting) but still wasn’t worth that kind of money. Last season, his numbers fell across the board and with an EPM of .386, he isn’t worth that kind of money.
Baron Davis is the team’s most expensive player with three years and $48 M remaining on his contract. Complicating matters, he missed 28 games with a sprained ankle. A career 41% shooter (39% last season), Davis was strong in just about every other aspect of the game – 18 points, nine assists, four rebounds – yielding a solid .509 EPM, #61 in the league. But at his price, the Warriors don’t need solid – they need spectacular.
Spectacular is what they got from Jason Richardson. J-Rich has five years and $61 M remaining on his contract, but he continues to improve and with an EPM of .502, he is a good value. He averaged 23 points, six rebounds and three assists a game, while shooting 45% from the field. He needs to improve his free throw percentage, but otherwise he’s on his way to stardom.
Troy Murphy, with 5-years/$50 M remaining on his deal, averaged a double-double for the second consecutive season en route to a team-high .518 EPM, which makes him the #18 power forward in that category. He needs to improve his shooting – 43% for a power forward just doesn’t cut it.
Aside from the Dunleavy signing, the Warriors have one other bad contract. Adonal Foyle is set to earn $27 M over the next three years. This is a guy who has averaged five points and six rebounds the last two seasons, making the team wish they had kept Erick Dampier. Without these two contracts, the Warriors would have about $4 M in cap space heading into the summer.
Rookie Ike Diogu has the team’s third highest EPM (.502) and will continue to improve with more minutes. He has three years left on his rookie contract that will pay him just $7.4 M. Another rookie, Monta Ellis, averaged 12 points, four assists and four rebounds in the month of April, which was the only month where he got more than 18 minutes of playing time. His EPM (.336) isn’t good, but his play during the final month was encouraging.
Offseason Blueprint
The team needs to build around Jason Richardson and Ike Diogu – everyone else is expendable. Unfortunately, I doubt that the team will be able to unload Foyle or Dunleavy anytime soon. The good news is – if Davis stays healthy – a lineup of Davis, Richardson, Dunleavy, Diogu and Murphy isn’t bad, especially with the likes of the always solid Derrick Fisher (EPM=.406), center Andris Biedrins (.486), and guards Mickael Pietrus and Ellis coming off the bench.
Murphy isn’t really a center, and since he and Diogu play basically the same position, he’s probably the team’s most valuable trade asset. A Murphy for Jamal Magloire swap would make sense for both Golden State and Milwaukee, but neither guy is particularly fleet of foot, which is becoming more and more important in today’s NBA.
The team has the #9 pick this year and NBADraft.net projects them to select Rodney Carney. Carney would give the team the athleticism at small forward that Dunleavy lacks, but I wonder if the team would select another small forward after recently committing so much money to the position. Brandon Roy or Marcus Williams could run the point if the team is intent on moving Davis, who would be trade-able (maybe for a first round pick and an expiring contract?) once he proves he’s healthy. Patrick O’Bryant is a prospect at center and might not be a bad fit with Diogu up front.
The team could go any number of directions depending on which players they are going to try to move in the next several months. Golden State tied with Houston and Charlotte as the worst shooting teams in the league, so whoever they draft should be able to shoot the ball.
Notes:
Golden State’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Troy Murphy 0.518 # 57
Baron Davis 0.509 # 61
Ike Diogu 0.502 # 69
Jason Richardson 0.502 # 70
Andris Biedrins 0.486 # 83
Derek Fisher 0.409 # 170
Adonal Foyle 0.392 # 195
Mike Dunleavy 0.386 # 206
Monta Ellis 0.336 # 278
Mickael Pietrus 0.295 # 308
Calbert Cheaney 0.231 # 345
Diogu’s EPM is very encouraging for such a young player. Biedrins is another young player who deserves more minutes. The team just needs to make a decision on Baron Davis and go from there.
