Author: John Paulsen (Page 859 of 937)

Cap Situation

With a plethora of good players still playing under their rookie contracts, the Chicago Bulls are only on the books for around $31 M (counting the contracts of Tyson Chandler and Othella Harrington). Chicago has done a nice job of rebuilding the franchise after the departures of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippin. They only made one serious mistake in that span and they’re still paying for it.

In the summer of 2001, the team traded away its best player, Elton Brand, for Chandler, who was then being touted as “the next Kevin Garnett” as a high schooler in Los Angeles. Then-GM Jerry Krause was convinced that Chandler was going to be an elite player, and was willing to part with Brand, who wasn’t exactly a disappointment, averaging 20+ points and 10+ rebounds through his first two seasons, winning co-Rookie of the Year honors in the process.

Last summer, the Bulls re-signed Chandler to a 6-year/$64 M contract, which is a high price to pay for a player that contributes next to nothing offensively. His EPM of .479 is encouraging, but was only 20th amongst centers. He needs to develop some sort of post up game to justify his fat contract. The Bulls desperately need a low post presence and the best post player the team has had in the last 10 years is now tearing it up for the Clippers.

The team’s best backcourt players – Kirk Hinrich (EPM=.449) and Ben Gordon (.397) – are still playing under their rookie contracts, which pay them $3.1 M and $3.9 M, respectively. Both players want to play the point, but Hinrich is more of a traditional setup man (shot to assist ratio of 2.1), while Gordon is more of a shoot-first (4.8) point guard. Both players are pretty good from long range – Gordon shoots at a 42% clip while Hinrich makes 37% of his attempts.

The team’s most efficient player is Andres Nocioni (.521), who really came on towards the end of the season, averaging 17 points and 11 boards in April. He is entering the final year of his contract ($3.0 M) and the team should sign him to an extension this year. Here’s the problem: Luol Deng (.465) plays basically the same position. Deng also played well in April, averaging 18 points and seven boards on 52% shooting. Deng has two more years on his rookie contract totaling $5.9 M.

Along with the Knicks’ first round pick, Mike Sweetney came over in the trade that sent Eddy Curry to New York. Sweetney was quite efficient (.494), but only played 19 minutes a game. The team was hoping that he would develop into a viable low post option, but his 45% shooting isn’t very good for a power forward. He has one year left on his rookie contract at the tune of $2.7 M.

Offseason Blueprint

The trouble with having a lot of young talent is that they don’t have a lot of experience and they’ll expect to get paid at some point. The team has said repeatedly that it wants a veteran, preferably one that can play in the post. Kevin Garnett’s name continues to resurface, and if the Bulls are able to pull of a trade, he would be a wonderful fit. The big problem is trying to match salaries – Garnett is set to make $20 M next season, so the Bulls would have to include Chandler in the deal, and it is doubtful that Minnesota will want to take on his contract. Ben Gordon is the player that the Bulls seem to be the most willing to part with, but he’s got two years left on his deal, so we may not see any big trades in Chicago until next summer. Still, with two first round draft picks and tons of young, talented players, Chicago has all the pieces to execute a big trade – except the big salaries.

Looking through this summer’s free agents, there aren’t really any back-to-the-basket scorers in the group. Al Harrington might be a decent fit, but he’s not that much bigger than Deng, and he isn’t a traditional power forward. The Bulls could make an offer to Melvin Ely, who is a restricted free agent. Ely did a nice job for the Bobcats filling in for Okafor after he got injured. Chris Wilcox is an unrestricted free agent who would also fit pretty well with the young Bulls, though his post moves still need work.

The Bulls have the Knicks’ first round pick, which ended up being the #2 pick overall. NBADraft.net projects them to take Tyrus Thomas, who is a bit of a project for a team that is ready to win now. They seem to be enamored with Brandon Roy, who would be an excellent fit next to Hinrich if the team were able to unload Gordon for help up front. If they choose to go with size, LaMarcus Aldridge is probably the most ready to step in and play, though they’ll have to wait a year or two for his body to completely fill out.

The team also has the #16 pick, and if they were able to move up a few spots, Shelden Williams would make a lot of sense. The team could continue to draft well and develop the talent on their roster, but cap-wise that strategy is going to come to a head in two years. Considering this, I can’t help but feel that there will be major changes in Chicago this summer.

Chicago’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Andres Nocioni 0.521 # 54
Mike Sweetney 0.494 # 78
Tyson Chandler 0.479 # 94
Luol Deng 0.465 # 105
Kirk Hinrich 0.449 # 121
Darius Songaila 0.446 # 125
Malik Allen 0.401 # 181
Ben Gordon 0.397 # 186
Chris Duhon 0.393 # 193
Othella Harrington 0.381 # 215
Jannero Pargo 0.322 # 289

The team needs to make a few decisions – Hinrich or Gordon? Nocioni or Deng? It’s conceivable that Gordon could play shooting guard and Deng could play power forward in an up-tempo offense (like the Suns run), but if the team is not willing to go that route then they need to move some of these guys for help elsewhere. With a young, talented roster and two first round draft picks, the team could turn itself into one of the top teams in the East with a good offseason.

Cap Situation

The Bucks are set to spend $60 M on payroll next season, with the biggest chunk going to Michael Redd, who is signed for five more years at the tune of $79 M. At first glance, this seems like a lot for Redd, but at an EPM of .520, he’s earning his salary. He upped his scoring average to 25.4 points per game, while shooting a respectable 45% from the field. This is especially impressive considering all the attention Redd gets defensively. He’s a good citizen off the court and he’s a hard worker on the court, improving his game each offseason to grow from a second round pick in 2000 to a franchise player and one of the league’s most dangerous shooters.

The team has to be pleased with the play of last year’s #1 overall pick, Andrew Bogut. The seven-foot Australian put up an EPM of .499, #75 in the league and 15th best amongst centers, sharing time with Jamaal Magloire in the middle. He is signed for three more years at a total price of $16 M.

T.J. Ford returned from a frightening spinal cord injury and put up decent (EPM=.403) numbers in his second full season. The team should extend his contract soon while he’s reasonably affordable. If he continues to improve his jumper and his decision-making, he’s going to be devastating. He’s a liability in the post defensively, but the team should study how the Suns use Steve Nash and try to use Ford similarly.

Maurice Williams (.425) is a viable alternative to Ford at the point. The former second round pick has a number of teams interested in trading for him, giving the Bucks a lot of options this offseason. He is only signed for next season ($1.9 M), so the team will have to decide if he is in their long term plans.

Bobby Simmons, yet another second round pick, was signed last offseason and has four years and $38 M remaining on his contract. His EPM (.400) was not particularly impressive, but he always guarded the opposing team’s best wing player, allowing Redd to be more effective on the offensive end. Simmons’ scoring average dropped three points from his last year with the Los Angeles Clippers, but his points per shot attempt actually grew from 1.21 to 1.24, due to his taking twice as many three point shots as he did for the Clippers. Considering he shot 42% from long range, that’s not a bad idea. Simmons will need to improve his game if the Bucks are going to take it to the next level.

Dan Gadzuric is signed for five more years at the cost of $31 M and had the team’s highest EPM (.549), but he only played 12 minutes a game. The team needs to play the high-energy center more, so expect his minutes to increase once the team trades Magloire away.

The team will experience some salary cap relief after this season when the salaries of Calvin Booth ($6.8 M) and Joe Smith ($6.8 M) come off the books. Smith is still a valuable contributor (.508) but at 31 (as of July), it’s unlikely that the team will invest much money to re-sign him.

Offseason Blueprint

Magloire and his $8.3 M salary need to go. Given the dearth of talent at center, he still has quite a bit of value, so the team should look for an athletic power forward who can score in the post. Trading Magloire to his hometown Toronto for Charlie Villanueva makes a lot of sense. Chris Wilcox is another free agent that would be a good fit, but the Bucks would need to execute a sign and trade to land him. The same goes for Al Harrington and Drew Gooden. Another possibility would be trading for Troy Murphy, who is basically expendable now that Ike Diogu is with the Warriors.

The team should try to keep Mo Williams, but they do have another capable backup in Charlie Bell, so if the Bucks can get a quality starter at power forward for Magloire and/or Williams, they should jump on it.

The Bucks traded away their first round draft pick along with Desmond Mason for Magloire. If they’re able to get back into the mid to late first round, guys like Shelden Williams, Cedric Simmons and Josh Boone would make the most sense. In the second round, NBADraft.net projects that Marco Killingsworth will be available when the Bucks pick at #39. He would be a real nice fit with Bogut.

The team is young, but if they are able to keep Ford, Redd, Simmons and Bogut together, while adding a good power forward to the mix, they should continue to improve and should make the playoffs again next season.

Notes:

Milwaukee’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dan Gadzuric 0.549 # 38
Michael Redd 0.520 # 55
Joe Smith 0.508 # 63
Andrew Bogut 0.499 # 75
Maurice Williams 0.425 # 145
Jamaal Magloire 0.424 # 147
T.J. Ford 0.403 # 176
Bobby Simmons 0.400 # 182
Charlie Bell 0.399 # 183
Toni Kukoc 0.384 # 212
Jiri Welsch 0.301 # 301

With six players in the Top 150, along with T.J. Ford and Bobby Simmons, the Bucks have quite a bit of talent on the roster. Magloire will be traded, and if the team is able to land a good power forward, they’ll be in business.

Cap Situation

Utah is in good fiscal shape. Their talented front line of Andre Kirilenko (5-yrs/$75 M), Carlos Boozer (3-yrs/$34.8 M) and Mehmet Okur (3-yrs/$25 M) are all signed for the foreseeable future, yet the team is only on the books for $42 M next season, giving Utah around $10 M in cap space.

Boozer (EPM=.644, #13 in the league), Kirilenko (.568, #30) and Okur (.562, #32) are models of efficiency. Boozer’s lingering hamstring injury really put a damper on Utah’s season, but he was terrific once healthy, averaging 16 points and nine boards on 55% shooting. Kirilenko continues to fill up the stat sheet – he averaged 15 points, eight rebounds, four assists and three blocks per contest. Okur was one of the most improved players this season, averaging 18 points and nine rebounds per game. There were some trade rumors circulating around Boozer during the season, but if the team decides to keep him, they’ve got a young, talented front line for years to come.

Surely, even Jerry Sloan is regretting the team’s decision to draft Deron Williams (.365) instead of Chris Paul, no matter how much better Williams supposedly “fits the system.” If Paul were playing in Utah, the team would be a playoff staple for the next several years. Williams has another year on his contract and the team can extend it another two years at a total cost of $12.8 M.

Other than that, the team only has two players – Gordon Giricek (.264) and Kris Humphries (.363) – signed for next season, so the Jazz have some work to do this offseason.

Offseason Blueprint

The team needs to make a decision on the future of Matt Harpring. His EPM of .449 is solid for a backup player, but he was unable to play in consecutive games for most of the season due to a lingering knee injury. He’s on the wrong side of 30, so if the team is interested in re-signing him, they should avoid a long-term contract.

The team’s biggest need is at shooting guard. They could use an athletic, defensive-minded player who can penetrate to create shots for the frontline players. Surprisingly, this summer’s free agent class is thin at the position, though the Jazz could try to pry John Salmons away from Philadelphia. Salmons is a restricted free agent, but the Sixers would have a tough time matching given their fiscal situation. If Salmons were to improve his shot off the dribble, he’d be a great fit with the Jazz.

The team has the #14 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take Ronnie Brewer out of Arkansas. Based on his profile, he’d be a good fit at shooting guard. If J.J. Redick is available at #14, he’d be another viable option, but he doesn’t have the penetration skills that Brewer has.

Utah is a young, skilled team and if they can add a couple of good players via free agency or the draft, they should be a playoff team for years to come. Unfortunately, Utah is at the top of the list of places where players don’t want to play, so they might have a tough time this offseason.

Notes:

Utah’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Carlos Boozer 0.644 # 13
Andrei Kirilenko 0.568 # 30
Mehmet Okur 0.562 # 32
Greg Ostertag 0.455 # 116
Matt Harpring 0.449 # 122
Jarron Collins 0.366 # 242
Deron Williams 0.365 # 245
Kris Humphries 0.363 # 247
Milt Palacio 0.315 # 296
Devin Brown 0.296 # 307
Keith Mcleod 0.266 # 327
Gordan Giricek 0.264 # 329

Three players in the Top 32 – wow. The Jazz need a shooting guard that will compliment Williams and that great front line, while also finding a few good players to come off the bench. If everyone can stay healthy, the Jazz will be a force to be reckoned with.