Author: John Paulsen (Page 850 of 937)

Draft predictions

The draft is tonight and, at this point, nothing is for certain. Usually teams with the #1 pick have tipped their hand by now, but the Raptors are still keeping people (or is it themselves?) guessing. It’s tough to predict what will happen tonight with any kind of certainty, but here’s what each team in the Top 6 should do, and what I think they will do:

1. Toronto Raptors

Who they should take: The Raptors have needs everywhere but the front line. They can play Bosh at center, but they’d rather not. They can play Charlie Villanueva at small forward, but they’d rather not. There is a dearth of talent on this squad and new GM Bryan Colangelo should probably take the best available player. They think it’s Andrea Bargnani, while I’d prefer Adam Morrison or Brandon Roy. Of course, I haven’t seen Bargnani play – the Raptors have.

Who they will take: Andrea Bargnani. They’d much rather trade down and get him later (while picking up an asset), but no one really wants to trade up, and they think he’s their guy.

2. Chicago Bulls

Who they should take: Again, I love Morrison and Roy, but the Bulls don’t really have a need at those positions. They could take either guy and move some of their other players for frontcourt help. Given their needs, they should take LaMarcus Aldridge – he’s the guy that is most ready to play now. Tyrus Thomas played very well against Texas in the NCAA tournament, so a case can be made for him as well.

Who they will take: The scuttlebutt seems to point to Tyrus Thomas.

3. Charlotte Bobcats

Who they should take: The Bobcats’ most glaring need is at shooting guard, and Brandon Roy would be a great, great fit. I would hesitate bringing Rudy Gay or Morrison in with Gerald Wallace there, and I don’t see either of those guys as a big upgrade over Roy.

Who they will take: My guess is Gay. I think he is way too passive, but scouts are drooling over his athleticism.

4. Portland Trailblazers

Who they should take: If Morrison is there, he’s their guy. The fans love him.

Who they will take: The team is probably secretly hoping that Morrison goes ahead of them so they can take whoever’s left between Thomas and Aldridge. I think Thomas will go to the Bulls, so LaMarcus Aldridge could be headed to the Northwest.

5. Atlanta Hawks

Who they should take: Brandon Roy – and keep him.

Who they will take: They might take Roy and then trade him to Houston for (hopefully) Shelden Williams. They seem to like Williams, and he fits a need there.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

Who they should take: If the Top 5 (Bargnani, Roy, Morrison, Thomas and Aldridge) are gone, then the team is looking at Foye or Gay, and maybe Williams. Foye can play either guard spot and, like I said, I’m not a big fan of Gay’s heart.

Who they will take: Well, I’ve got Bargnani, Thomas, Gay, Aldridge and Roy going, in that order, so that leaves Minnesota with Morrison. What a coup for the Wolves!

Obviously, a draft like this is an inexact science. Teams are putting smokescreens up right and left, so the information we have is sketchy at best. Plus, an unsuspected trade could throw the whole lottery on its head. For that reason, it should be an interesting night.

Dolan sounds off

Knicks owner James Dolan put all the pressure on GM/head coach Isiah Thomas going into next season:

“This is his team,” Dolan said. “He made this bed. There is nobody better than him to make this thing go forward but he has to do that. And he has one year, one season to do that. At this time next year Isiah will be with us if we can all sit here and say this team has made significant progress toward its goal of eventually becoming an NBA championship team. If we can’t say that, then Isiah will not be here.”

Larry Brown has $40 remaining on his contract – that type of money will create some drama. Dolan accused Larry Brown of sabotaging his own career:

According to Dolan, Brown informed the Knicks’ front office last week that the roster needed a major overhaul. Brown startled the organization in Thursday’s meeting by suggesting that Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis and Jerome James and three other players should be cut. The Knicks contend that releasing the six players mentioned by Brown would have cost the club $180 million, leading Dolan to surmise that Brown was angling to be fired.

“Larry never intended to coach this team beyond this season,” Dolan said.

Brown responded:

“It makes me sick to my stomach that anyone would think it wasn’t my intent to see it through,” Brown said. “It was my goal to help rebuild the team for the long run. I bought a house here. I enrolled my kids in school. Why would I want to leave with 23 wins on my record and go out that way after a 34-year career?”

The Knicks and their fans need all of this mudslinging to stop. They need their management to get down to the business of building a better franchise. Isiah Thomas has created a team that no one thinks can play together. If he gets anything out of them at all, it will be a surprise. It looks like Thomas’ moves are wearing on his owner as well, so this should be a very interesting season in New York.

Second to none: The best second-round picks in NBA history

Think you can fall asleep once the first round of the NBA Draft is over? Think again. It seems like every year, a player or two from the second round emerges into a solid NBA contributor, eventually developing into an All-Star caliber player. Here is a list of the Top 10 second round picks from the last 20 years. The criteria are simple: how good was the player or how good does the player project to be once his career is over? I also took into account whatever accolades the player won, be they All-Star appearances, All-NBA teams, even All-Defensive or Sixth Man awards. Special consideration was given to those players who were key players on championship squads. After all, that’s what it’s all about.

But first, a few Honorable Mentions:

Younger players who still could make the list: Mehmet Okur, Bobby Simmons, Carlos Boozer, Cuttino Mobley, Stephen Jackson, Ryan Gomes, Anderson Varejao, Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Williams, Earl Watson, Steve Blake, Chris Duhon

Older/Retired players who had solid NBA careers: Cliff Robinson, Cedric Ceballos, P.J. Brown, Antonio Davis, Steve Kerr, Vernon Maxwell

10. Rashard Lewis, 1998, drafted #32 (Seattle)
Career Averages: 16.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, .461 FG%

Lewis was drafted by the Sonics out of high school and quickly became one of the team’s best players, averaging 14 points or more each of the last six seasons and 20 points or more the last two years. In the 1998 draft, his hometown team (the Houston Rockets) passed on him three times, selecting instead Michael Dickerson, Bryce Drew and Mirsad Turckan. Ouch. In 2005, Lewis was named to his first All-Star Game. He is still just 27, so he could move up the list (or fall off) before his career is done.
Bonus points for…having a great three-point shot (38.6%) for a 6-10 player.
Negative points for…despite being 6-10, he doesn’t rebound very well, he has a questionable post up game and takes almost 30% of his shots from long range. Go inside, young man!

9. Nick Van Exel, 1993, #37 (L.A. Lakers)
Career Averages: 14.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, .405 FG%

Along with Eddie Jones, Van Exel was the main reason for the Lakers’ resurgence in the post-Showtime era. Though his career shooting percentage is low, he was known as a clutch shooter, hitting numerous game-winning shots in his career, including the shot that gave the Lakers the win in their last appearance in the fabled Boston Garden. He was an All-Star in 1998 and was in the top 10 in assists five times in his career.
Bonus points for…standing off the free throw line when shooting foul shots.
Negative points for…that less-than-stellar shooting percentage.

Read the rest of the article at Bullz-Eye.

Offseason Blueprint: Miami Heat

Cap Situation

Pat Riley took a lot of grief for his roster moves in the offseason, but everything worked out in the end, as he and his band of mercenaries won Miami’s first NBA title. Considering they won a ring, I doubt the team will make major changes in the offseason, and with a payroll of over $62 M, they don’t have a ton of options.

Shaquille O’Neal’s contract runs another four years at $20 M per season. Shaq battled some injuries this season, but still put forth the league’s 11th best EPM (.678), third best amongst centers. Time has taken its toll on O’Neal; he averaged career lows in points (20.0) and rebounds (9.2). But his 60% FG shooting was tremendous, and as long as he’s playing, he affects the game like no other player in the league, making him well worth the price.

Dwayne Wade is entering the final year of his rookie contract at the unbelievably low price of $3.8 M. For a guy with an EPM of .698 – #6 in the league – this is a tremendous value. While rumors flew during the playoffs that he may keep his options open, you can expect Miami to try to sign him to a max extension this summer. After winning a title this season, I bet he’ll sign a deal that will keep him Miami for the next seven seasons.

Jason Williams’ contract runs two more seasons for more than $17 M. Williams only played 59 games this season and will have offseason knee surgery; he needs to return a more productive player (EPM=.406) in order to earn that big contract.

Antoine Walker’s deal lasts three more years at a total cost of almost $26 M. His EPM (.435) is average, so I’m sure the team would like to see him contribute a little more when he’s on the court. Still, Walker gave the Heat a valuable third scoring option to take some of the pressure off of O’Neal and Wade.

Udonis Haslem has four years remaining on his contract, which has a total price of more than $24 M. Haslem is a pretty good deal for the Heat, providing an above average EPM (.458) for a reasonable price. Plus, he pretty much earned his entire contract with his gritty defense on Dirk Nowitzki during the Finals.

Offseason Blueprint

The team should try to convince Alonzo Mourning to return for another season or two. Zo’s EPM (.590) was the 20th best in the league, 5th best amongst centers, giving the Heat a reliable backup to Shaq. Mourning may want a raise from the $1.1 M he made last season, and the Heat should consider it. It will be interesting to see what motivates Mourning now that he’s won a ring – will it be money or more titles? Only time will tell.

Gary Payton is also a free agent, but he should probably go ahead and retire. He’s a shell of the player he once was, but his legacy is in tact, as he made his mark with two huge shots in the Finals. He made an impact and won a ring – that should probably be enough. But Payton has indicated that he wants to play another season and will be content if the team brings in another point guard for him to help to develop.

With Wade, Walker, Haslem and Shaq, the team’s biggest need is at point guard. There are a couple of quality point guards – Speedy Claxton and Marcus Banks – that could be had for the mid-level exception. I think either guy would be an upgrade over Jason Williams.

Miami’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dwyane Wade 0.698 # 6
Shaquille O’Neal 0.678 # 11
Alonzo Mourning 0.590 # 20
Udonis Haslem 0.458 # 112
Antoine Walker 0.435 # 135
Jason Williams 0.406 # 172
Michael Doleac 0.369 # 238
James Posey 0.344 # 273
Derek Anderson 0.339 # 276
Gary Payton 0.326 # 285
Jason Kapono 0.303 # 300
Shandon Anderson 0.248 # 338

The team doesn’t have a pick in the first round of the draft, so if they want an impact player they’ll have to find one with the mid-level or via a trade. I doubt Riley will mess with the chemistry that won the franchise its first NBA title, but you never know. I’d go grab Banks or Claxton and re-sign Mourning (and James Posey, if he doesn’t exercise his player option), but other than that, I’d stand pat.

Oregon State wins CWS

The Beavers win their first College World Series, 3-2, after dropping the first game of the three-game series. The game was tied, 2-2, with two outs in the bottom of the 8th when North Carolina second baseman Bryan Steed threw a routine ground ball past the first baseman, allowing OSU to score what turned out to be the winning run. Kevin Gunderson came in with one out in the top of the 9th and runners on first and second and got the two outs necessary to give the Beavers the victory.

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