Author: John Paulsen (Page 833 of 937)

This is the night that football fans everywhere have been waiting for. The NFL regular season kicks off this evening as the Dolphins face the Steelers in Pittsburgh (8:30 PM ET, NBC). Here are five big questions that fantasy owners want answered:

1. Will Daunte Culpepper’s knee hold up?
After a miserable 2-5 start in 2005 where he threw just six touchdowns against 12 picks, Daunte Culpepper suffered a horrible knee injury that knocked him out the rest of the season. The “Love Boat” scandal blew up, and the Vikings took off with Brad Johnson under center, so Culpepper became expendable. Now, after months of rehab, he lands in Miami and although he’s limping a bit, he has performed well, completing 22 of 30 passes in the preseason for a QB rating of 93.5. But will the knee hold up over a full game? How quickly will he bounce back up after a tough hit? The Steelers defense should be a nice test tonight.

2. Can Ronnie Brown carry the load?
Ronnie Brown has never been “The Man.” At Auburn, he split time with Carnell Williams. Last year, Ricky Williams was still in town. This season, he’ll be asked to carry the ball at least 275 times for the first time in his college or pro career. So can he handle the load? I don’t see why not. The guy is 6’0” and 232 lbs (bigger than Williams) and has a great skill set. If the Miami offensive line continues to improve, he should have a good year. But tonight against the Steelers, running room might be hard to come by.

3. Is Chris Chambers ready to take it to the next level?
Chambers was phenomenal over the last half of last season, catching 52 passes for 701 yards and eight TDs in the last eight games. Doubling those numbers to account for a full season gives us an idea of Chambers’ upside. Now he’s got a decent QB for the first time in his career – will the two click? Will Chambers be consistent enough to become an elite WR? The bottom line: if he gets consistent QB play, he’ll have a great year.

4. What about “Fast” Willie Parker?
Parker was one of the biggest surprises last season, rushing for 1202 yards and four TDs. Now that Jerome Bettis is gone, the team has said that Parker will get first crack at the goal line duties, which has really helped his perceived value this summer. The Steelers have a great offensive line, so if Parker performs well, he could have a huge season. Duce Staley is back in the mix, but he’s not a big guy either, so it’s not likely that he’ll vulture many goal line carries. Verron Haynes is a versatile player that might eat into Parker’s time. “Fast” Willie went in the second round of a lot of drafts and those fantasy owners are counting on him to be the main man in Pittsburgh. Tonight’s game should be a good indication of how the team plans to use him.

5. How is Hines’ hammy?
Hines Ward is an underrated fantasy player and his hamstring injury this summer served to deflate his value even more. He’s listed as probable tonight, but Ben Roethlisberger will miss the game due to his emergency appendectomy. With Charlie Batch under center, Ward may not light it up, but it’s important that he looks good tonight. Two things to look for – is he getting open and is he run blocking like he usually does? If so, Ward should have another fine season.

Steve Smith missed practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against Atlanta.

Smith missed most of training camp and the entire preseason with a left hamstring injury and an ingrown toenail. But Smith’s absence Wednesday was due to a different injury. Coach John Fox said Smith tweaked his other hamstring in Tuesday’s practice.

The good news is it wasn’t the same hamstring. If it were, there would be a good chance that the injury would linger the entire season. This is a dangerous time for Smith as hamstring injuries have a tendency to flare up as the competitive spirit brings players back too soon. There is a difference between “tweaking” and “pulling” a hamstring, so hopefully – with three days of treatment – he’s able to play.

Each week in the Pregame, I’ll suggest a few fantasy players to start and a few players to sit based on strength of schedule (SOS) or that player’s particular situation. Right now, I’m working off SOS data from last season, and while defenses do change from year to year, most tend to stay the same. As the season goes on, the SOS data will be updated and should provide an even better picture of what should happen each week.

I’m a strong advocate of always starting your studs, so I won’t be telling you about Shaun Alexander’s tough matchup or how Peyton Manning and company will light it up against a bad defense. Anyone can make those calls. I’ll be discussing marginal fantasy starters – guys that can start for you, but only under certain circumstances.

START

If you’ve got KURT WARNER on your roster, this is the week to start him. He’s healthy – which is a big plus – and he’s at home facing a porous 49er defense, which gave up a league-worst 277 passing yards and a second-worst 28 touchdowns last season…TRENT GREEN is also a good start. He faces a Cincinnati team that gave up an average of 223 yards per game last season. They did lead the league in picks, so if your league penalizes heavily for INTs, you may want to look elsewhere…This is a good week to start COREY DILLON. Laurence Maroney probably won’t play much and the Pats face a Buffalo team that allowed 138 ypg on the ground last season, along with a league-worst 22 rushing TDs. With the return of Takeo Spikes, the Bills’ rush defense should be improved, but Dillon is still a solid start…DESHAUN FOSTER is injury-prone, but he’s healthy this week and he faces the Falcons, who gave up 129 rushing ypg last season, along with 18 rushing TDs. Get some use out of Foster while you can…LEE EVANS looks like a nice start. He faces the Pats who had a lot of injuries last season, allowing 231 passing ypg. While the Pats should be improved, they do have concerns and Evans is poised for a breakout season.

SIT

If you have another option, BRETT FAVRE should probably ride the pine this week. The Bears defense allowed a league low 10 pass TDs last season while only yielding 180 yards per game through the air. Green Bay has serious offensive line issues and their receiver corps is unsettled, so it would be surprising if Favre came out and had a great game…If possible, DREW BREES should also be avoided. He’s on the road against a Browns team that was pretty good against the pass (179 ypg) last season…JULIUS JONES faces a tough Jacksonville defense that only allowed four rushing TDs last season. It’s not clear how Bill Parcells is going to split the load between he and Marion Barber, so the situation should be avoided if at all possible…This might not be the week to try out MATT JONES or ERNEST WILFORD in your lineup. Dallas was pretty good against the pass last season and was especially good at limiting opposing WRs.

INJURY UPDATE

STEVE SMITH tweaked his other hamstring, and is now listed as questionable for Week 1…CLINTON PORTIS still hasn’t practiced, but the Redskins don’t play until Monday night, so there’s still time for him to hit the field…BRAYLON EDWARDS won’t be starting but he will play Week 1…As previously reported, BEN ROETHLISBERGER will miss the first game due to an emergency appendectomy…DARRELL JACKSON and HINES WARD are expected to play in Week 1. Both players missed a significant part of the preseason with injuries, and are currently listed as “questionable”…JAMAL LEWIS and DERRICK MASON are also expected to play.

HC Joe Gibbs named Ladell Betts the primary backup to Clinton Portis. Portis is still day-to-day, but hasn’t yet practiced with the team…Darrell Jackson is expected to play in Week 1 after practicing this week. Don’t expect too much from D-Jax this week as he tries to work himself into shape…Koren Robinson visited the Packers this week, but left without a contract. That just goes to show you how desperate things are in Green Bay that they’ll bring in a guy with his history who likely won’t be able to play this season. Still, I guess it’s good to have all of your bases covered…Donte Stallworth will start for the Eagles, but hasn’t yet learned the entire playbook. Expect Stallworth’s second half production to be better than the first half…The Deion Branch situation is getting even more ugly, if that’s possible. Branch is preparing to sue the Patriots for lost salary (presumably from the Seahawks and the Jets) if he fails to win his arbitration hearings this week. This relationship is quickly approaching the point of no return.