As Week 1 approached, the running back situations for 21 NFL teams (Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco and Seattle) were pretty clear. Each of those teams had an established starter who would carry the load. For the other 11 teams, things were a bit (or a lot) murkier.
Let’s check in with the Muddy 11 and see if their running back situations are any clearer:
Houston Texans
Starter: Wali Lundy, Challenger(s): Vernand Morency, Ron Dayne
HC Gary Kubiak indicated that Lundy and Morency would split time, with Lundy getting the starting nod and an extra series or two. After showing some signs of life in the preseason, the Texans’ running game was pretty awful in Week 1. Lundy finished with 32 yards on 11 carries (2.9 ypc), while Morency (5-13) didn’t fare any better. Lundy caught two passes for –1 yard, and Morency finished with six yards on one catch.
Prognosis: Expect this 2 to 1 ratio to continue until one guy proves himself.
New England Patriots
Starter: Corey Dillon, Challenger(s): Laurence Maroney
Maroney is emerging as the best rookie running back not named “Bush.” He had 17 carries for 86 yards (5.1 ypc), while Dillon rushed 16 times for 73 yards (4.6).
Prognosis: As long as Dillon stays healthy and reasonably productive, he’ll continue to start, but Maroney is making his case to be the starter. He’s still struggling in pass protection, so he’s still got some work to do before he’s capable of being an every down back.
New York Jets
Starter: Derrick Blaylock, Challenger(s): Kevan Barlow, Brad Smith
Blaylock carried the ball 19 times for 36 yards (1.9 ypc) and caught two passes for 10 yards. Barlow carried 11 times for 35 yards (3.2 ypc) and did not catch a pass. Smith is a rookie – he carried twice for 13 yards and caught a pass for another 13 yards.
Prognosis: If Blaylock continues to put up such a low ypc average, expect Barlow to get more work. Smith is a darkhorse.
Indianapolis Colts
Starter: Dominic Rhodes, Challenger(s): Joseph Addai
With some pretty big shoes to fill, Rhodes carried 16 times for 29 yards (1.8 ypc) and one touchdown, while catching three passes for 14 yards. Addai carried seven times for 26 yards (3.7 ypc) and also caught three passes for 22 yards.
Prognosis: If Rhodes continues to struggle with his ypc, Addai will continue to get more work. By midseason, Addai could very well be the starter.
Tennessee Titans
Starter: Chris Brown, Challenger(s): Travis Henry, LenDale White
Brown carried 16 times for 64 yards (4.0 ypc), while Henry had nine carries for 22 yards (2.4 ypc) with two touchdowns. It’s clear that Henry is the Titans’ goal line back, but Brown was pretty effective as well. White didn’t play and has had a tough time fitting in with his teammates. (Spitting on them doesn’t really help.)
Prognosis: Expect this situation to stay muddled for a while – only an injury or a trade will clear this situation up.
Denver Broncos
Starter: Tatum Bell, Challenger(s): Mike Bell, Cedric Cobbs
Skeletor is at it again. Tatum Bell carried 15 times for 103 yards, while Mike Bell carried 10 times for 58 yards and a touchdown. Mike also caught 4 passes for 30 yards while Tatum wasn’t involved in the passing game.
Prognosis: Expect more of the same. Both guys will have decent fantasy value as long as they get 14-16 touches per game. It looks like Mike will be more involved at the goal line and in the passing game.
Dallas Cowboys
Starter: Julius Jones, Challenger(s): Marion Barber III
So much for Jones and Barber being, as HC Bill Parcells put it, “interchangeable.” Jones carried 17 times for 72 yards (4.2 ypc) and a score, while also catching one pass for 39 yards. Barber carried three times for 13 yards (4.3 ypc) and caught two passes for 13 yards.
Prognosis: At least for this week, Jones is the clear-cut #1 RB in Dallas. His stock fell quite a bit in preseason and fantasy owners that were able to pick him up in the third or fourth round (or later) will get great value if this ratio of carries continues.
Carolina Panthers
Starter: DeShaun Foster, Challenger(s): DeAngelo Williams
Apparently the Carolina coaching staff doesn’t think that Williams is ready for prime time. He didn’t register a single carry and just had one catch for 8 yards. Meanwhile, Foster racked up 54 yards on 15 carries (3.6 ypc) while catching four passes for 20 yards.
Prognosis: Foster should be more effective once Steve Smith returns, but Williams looks like he’ll be on the bench for a while, at least until Foster goes down.
Baltimore Ravens
Starter: Jamal Lewis, Challenger(s): Mike Anderson, Musa Smith
Lewis shrugged off a hip injury and carried the ball 18 times for 78 yards (4.3 ypc) and found the endzone once. Anderson (7-25) and Smith (2-6) gave Lewis a few breathers. The Baltimore RBs were not very involved in the passing game.
Prognosis: This is Lewis’ job to lose. Expect him to get 15-25 carries as long as he’s healthy and effective.
Chicago Bears
Starter: Thomas Jones, Challenger(s): Cedric Benson
Jones carried 21 times for 63 yards (3.0 ypc) while Benson had 11 carries for 34 yards (3.1 ypc), so it’s safe to say that neither guy outplayed the other. Benson doesn’t have the respect of the teammates, so he’s got some work to do before he’s a serious threat to Jones.
Prognosis: Expect TJ to hold onto the job (and the carry ratio to continue) until one guy separates himself.
New Orleans Saints
Starter: Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister, Challenger: Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister
The Saints proved on Sunday that the two players could co-exist. McAllister rushed 22 times for 90 yards (4.1 ypc), while Bush turned 14 carries into 61 yards (4.4 ypc). Bush also led the Saints in receptions (8-58) and it’s clear that the team will try to use him any way they can.
Prognosis: We’ll see more of the same. McAllister will get more carries, but Bush will be heavily involved in the passing game.
