Author: John Paulsen (Page 761 of 937)

Week 8 Preview

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Carson Palmer or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Ben Roethlisberger, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

START ‘EM

QB: Brian Griese has been putting up monster stats and has a terrific matchup against the Lions this week. Detroit is 30th against the pass, allowing 269 yards and 2 TD per game…For those in desperate at QB, Alex Smith is practicing fully this week and he has a nice matchup with the Saints, who are 27th against the pass…Jay Cutler and Brett Favre both have pretty favorable matchups in that Broncos/Packers tilt.

RB: Cedric Benson has a terrific matchup against the Lions, who have yielded an average of 116 rush yards and 1.2 rush TD per game this season…LenDale White is worth another start against the Raiders, who are 29th against the rush…Surprisingly, Kevin Jones is worth a start against the Bears who have been uncharacteristically bad against the run this season…Whoever the starter is in Cleveland – Jason Wright or Jamal Lewis – is a good fantasy play against the Rams, who have given up 130 yards and 1.3 TD on the ground this season…Thomas Jones is also worth a start against the Bills, who are 25th against the run.

WR: Both Chicago WRs – Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad – should be solid starts this week as they face a very bad Detroit secondary…Santonio Holmes should definitely be in the lineup against the Bengals, who have yielded 249 yards and 2.7 TD through the air this season…Kevin Curtis has a nice matchup against the Vikings, who are terrific against the run, but are last in the league against the pass…Ronald Curry faces the Titans, who are 9th against the pass…Kevin Walter and Andre Davis have a pretty nice matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed an average of 240 yards per game through the air this season.

SIT ‘EM

QB: I still like Jason Campbell, but he faces a very good Pats defense this week and should be benched if possible…Even if Vince Young suits up, he should be benched against the Raiders, who are 12th against the pass and have only allowed six pass TD all season…David Carr should be avoided. He faces the Colts, who have given up a league-best 162 pass yards per game (and just five pass TD) this season.

RB: Don’t expect much from Kenny Watson (or Rudi Johnson, if he plays) against the Steelers. They are the league’s 3rd best rush defense (though Watson should be able to catch some passes)…LaMont Jordan faces a tough test against Tennessee’s stingy front seven, who have yielded a league-best 60 yards per game on the ground…Ahman Green has several nice matchups coming up, but this week’s game against the Chargers isn’t one of them.

WR: Ted Ginn and Marty Booker should be benched this week. They face the Giants, who are on fire defensively right now…Ike Hilliard has been playing well, but this week he faces the Jags, who have allowed a league-best four pass TD thus far this season.

THINKING DEFENSIVELY

Last week, my top three picks were Tampa Bay, Seattle and the NY Giants. The Seahawks and Giants were terrific, but the Bucs defense laid an egg in Detroit. Here are a few defenses that have nice matchups this week and are available in at least 40% of ESPN leagues (in order of strength of play):

TEN, IND, HOU, OAK and NO

SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Marc Bulger, Rams
It’s strange to see Bulger’s name mentioned as a sleeper, and I know he’s been pretty awful, but if he can’t put up good stats against the Browns (who have allowed an average of 264 yards and 2.8 TD through the air), then he’s in serious trouble. For some owners, this will be Bulger’s last chance.

TOUGH SLEDDING

Adrian Peterson, Vikings
He’s a must-start these days, but the Eagles have a pretty stingy rush defense that has allowed just 88 yards and 0.3 TD per game on the ground this season. At some point, teams are going to bring nine guys into the box and dare Tarvaris Jackson to throw the ball…aren’t they?

Heat, T-Wolves swing trade

In a recently finalized trade, the Heat sent Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, Wayne Simien and a conditional 2008 first round pick to Minnesota for Ricky Davis and Mark Blount.

Miami is selling this as a salary cap move that upgrades the team’s perimeter scoring, but Blount’s remaining contract (3 years, $22.1 M) is worse than Walker’s (2 years, $17.8 M), so there is definitely more going on here. The article mentions Walker’s problems with conditioning:

But Walker’s second season with the Heat was marred by his struggles to meet Riley’s rigid conditioning standards. Riley’s dissatisfaction with the 6-9 Walker’s weight and body-fat percentage led to a four-game suspension last season, and more problems in training camp.

Walker, 31, was held out of the opening practice of camp and benched for three exhibition games, including Tuesday’s finale.

Also playing into the trade is the performance of Dorell Wright, who outplayed Walker at small forward last season. With Dwyane Wade missing the first part of the season, Davis will step in at shooting guard and Wright will get most of the minutes at small forward. Once Wade returns, Davis will likely provide scoring off the bench.

Blount will give the Heat some security in the middle when Shaq inevitably misses a bunch of games due to injury.

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 8

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I’ll use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 40% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to talk about a player or two that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters.

QUARTERBACKS

Jeff Garcia (52.9) continues to play well. He has thrown for an average of 244 yards and 1.7 TD over the last three games and is a good backup or spot starter…Jason Campbell (49.8) doesn’t have a great matchup in week 8, but he’s still one of the better backups out there and has a few nice matchups coming up…Kurt Warner (37.7) put up nice stats on Sunday, throwing for 282 yards and two scores against a pretty tough Redskins defense. His bye is this week, but after a tough matchup with the Bucs in week 9, he has four great matchups (DET, CLE, CIN and SF)…Daunte Culpepper (32.1) has thrown more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) in the last two games, but he has put up good yardage in both contests…Brian Griese (25.0) has been a terrific fantasy play since he took over the starting job. He’s averaging 301 yards and 2 TD over the last four games. With Detroit and Oakland up next, he’s a nice pickup…Damon Huard (17.6) has a rough schedule coming up, but he’s not a bad option in deeper leagues…Cleo Lemon (7.1) had a pretty good fantasy game against the Patriots and proved that he is a decent start even against the best defenses. With the Giants, Bills and Eagles upcoming, he’s not a bad start for those desperate for help at QB…Watch to see if Kellen Clemens (2.8) is named the Jets starter this week. With the Bills on tap in week 8, he’s an interesting pickup.

RUNNING BACKS

Jesse Chatman (1.5) is this week’s #1 pickup. Ronnie Brown is out for the year with a knee injury and Chatman will get the bulk of his carries. It’s not often that a bona fide RB2 is available on the waiver wire, so go get him…DeShawn Wynn (45.1) continues to linger on the waiver wire despite scoring a TD in each of the last two weeks. The Packers’ running game is a mess, but Wynn is the guy getting the goal line carries…Travis Henry hurt his ribs on Sunday, but Rat Shanahan says they’re not broken. Do you believe him? It doesn’t matter because Selvin Young (42.7) shouldn’t be on the waiver wire with all of Henry’s legal troubles…Dominic Rhodes (39.1) got nine carries, which is a big jump in workload for him…Chris Henry (30.6) saw 11 carries in relief of LenDale White in Sunday’s dramatic win and he even scored his first career TD. With Chris Brown out, expect Henry to get a good portion of his touches as long as he’s out…It looks like the Colts want to use Kenton Keith (29.2) to ease the load on Joseph Addai, who has already shown he has trouble carrying the whole load…Jamal Lewis didn’t practice on Monday, so it’s possible that Jason Wright (26.8) will get another start…Kenny Watson (24.7) had a huge day on Sunday, and Rudi Johnson’s hammy is still bothering him.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Muhsin Muhammad (56.8) has caught a TD in three of the last four weeks and is really benefiting from Brian Griese taking over at QB…Roddy White (43.4) is on bye in week 8, but if you can snag him, he’s still a good pickup even with Joey Harrington taking over at QB…Andre Davis (40.8) should continue to prosper as long as Andre Johnson is out. He has put up good numbers in four of the last five games…Amani Toomer (25.8) has caught a TD in each of the last two games. He’s a little spotty, but worth owning in PPR leagues…Marty Booker (14.7) didn’t do much against the Patriots, but he should benefit with the departure of Chris Chambers. Expect better numbers against the Giants…Kevin Walter (11.2) has caught at least five passes in the last four games and should be owned in all PPR leagues…Ted Ginn (11.0) should also benefit from Chambers’ departure, but it’s tough to expect a lot from a rookie…Ike Hilliard (9.9) has caught 28 passes over the last four weeks and is quietly becoming Jeff Garcia’s favorite target. He’s due to get injured, but as long as he’s healthy, he’s a nice play…With Javon Walker out for a while, Brandon Stokley (7.6) becomes the Broncos’ WR2. Given Brandon Marshall’s recent problems, Stokley’s role may increase even more…Roydell Williams (1.9) exploded for 124 yards against the Texans. He will benefit from Brandon Jones’ absence, but Vince Young’s return may limit his numbers.

TIGHT ENDS

Greg Olsen (56.6) was a big pickup last week, but is still available in almost half of ESPN’s leagues. He has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games…Eric Johnson (20.0) continues to play a prominent role in the Saints’ passing attack. He has caught at least five passes or scored a TD in the last four games…Donald Lee (18.2) has only caught one TD, but he has at least three catches in each of the first six games, so he’s a nice player to have in PPR leagues…David Martin (5.6) has caught three passes in the last two games and seems to be Cleo Lemon’s safety valve over the middle…With Javon Walker out, it looks like Jay Cutler intends to target Tony Scheffler (7.5) more in the passing game. He has seven catches over the last two weeks…Zach Miller’s (2.2) role in the Oakland offense seems to be increasing. He has seven catches in the last two games.

« Older posts Newer posts »