Author: John Paulsen (Page 731 of 937)

Chances are, if you followed my picks in your pool, you probably won some money. I placed second out 29 entries in one pool and seventh out of 89 entries in another. I would have done better in the second pool but the UCLA loss to Memphis knocked me out of the running. Yahoo says that my picks were in the 95th percentile, which is nice to see.

In total, an advantage in Sagarin rating of two or more points gave us the winner of 40 of 48 contests (83.3%). Last year’s winning percentage was 85.7% so I feel pretty confident about using this methodology for my bracket. There were 15 games that were too close to call, so I used other criteria to pick those games:

4+ seed advantage (2-1)
This played a role in three 6/11 matchups in the first round. Purdue and Oklahoma won, while USC lost to Kansas State. In retrospect, maybe I should have considered the location of that game (Omaha, Nebraska) more carefully.

Points per shot (4-4)
PPS is calculated by taking the total number of points divided by the total number of field goal and free throw attempts. A monkey could have picked four out of eight winners, but I still think that there’s merit to using this stat. I think it’s important to look at strength of schedule, however. It’s easy to score if you play mostly bad teams.

Location (2-1)
Location played a prominent role in three picks: Stanford over Marquette (in Anaheim), Texas over Stanford (in Houston) and Texas over Memphis (in Houston). It also played a factor in my Davidson pick (over Gonzaga in Raleigh) and I should have used it in the Oregon/Mississippi State matchup in Little Rock.

Gut (1-1)
I went with my gut for two picks. I took Pittsburgh over Michigan State because the Panthers were hot entering the tourney. I ignored my gut in the Tennessee/Louisville matchup, and I’m not sure what convinced me to take the Vols, so I’m going to pretend I followed my gut and won the pick. (Hey, sue me.)

I know that adds up to 16 games, but that’s because I ignored Memphis’ Sagarin rating advantage in their game against Texas and took the Longhorns in Houston. My bad.

Overall, I think the system worked pretty well. Next season, I plan to devise some sort of strength of schedule adjustment on PPS and see if that produces better results.

Wow, what a game!

Truth be told, I was rooting for Kansas. I picked them to win my bracket, so with the victory, some second place money is coming my way. (That damn Louisville/Tennessee game still haunts me!) I was also rooting for them because I think they’re the better-coached team. John Calipari has done a terrific job over the years in compiling loads of talent, but I’ve never liked the style of play he teaches. There is virtually no discernable structure on offense and when the pressure is really on, things tend to fall apart.

Memphis was plagued all year by poor free throw shooting, but had shot the ball well from the charity stripe during the tournament. Even deep into the second half, things were looking pretty good. Memphis was 9 of 12 from the line before Chris Douglas-Roberts missed three straight free throws to let Kansas back into the game with under 75 seconds to play. Then Derrick Rose failed to convert two free throws that would have sealed the game with 0:10 to play. If not for those misses, Mario Chalmers’ magnificent shot wouldn’t have mattered.

If I were a coach, I’d record the last three minutes of regulation and play it for my team at the beginning of each season. The lesson? When you’re shooting free throws in practice, concentrate! Imagine you’re at the Final Four and the game is on the line. Imagine the fans in the stands rooting against you.

Good free throw shooting is one of the areas of basketball that is often overlooked. It’s not as sexy as working on that double crossover move or pushing that three-point range out to 23 feet. It’s boring to shoot free throws, but more than anything else in basketball, you’ll see results in free throw shooting if you focus when you practice.

Bo Ryan would always have us shoot free throws to end the practice. We would run some lines and then five guys would step up to shoot. We had to make four out of five to get off the court. If we failed, we ran more lines and start the process all over again. Truth be told, the pressure I felt shooting those free throws almost matched that of a game. If I missed, I knew that I’d get all kinds of shit from my teammates. Calipari probably does something similar, but I doubt that he makes it as big of a priority as some of the other things he does in practice.

After the game, Clark Kellogg criticized Calipari for not fouling with under five seconds to play in regulation. The thinking is, when you’re up three, if you put a team to the line to shoot two free throws, you make it very difficult for the team to tie or win the game. In general, I agree with this strategy and in his post game interview, Calipari said that they did try to foul but were unsuccessful. It was a difficult situation because he wasn’t sure what position his team would be in because Rose was at the line. That’s why it’s so important to practice end-of-game situations.

Lastly, I didn’t like Calipari saying in his post-game interview that he didn’t like the fact that the refs were able to go to the video to change Rose’s desperation three-point bank shot to a two-point field goal. He said he wanted to see if he could change the rule. Was he joking? Maybe, but the overall tone of the interview was that “we should have won that game.” If Rose doesn’t bank in that shot, Kansas has the ball, down five, with more than four minutes to play. That’s hardly a comfortable margin for Memphis, a team that has struggled all year with their free throws.

Anyway, it was a terrific game, an amazing comeback, and a dominant overtime – a perfect end to another great NCAA tourney.