Author: John Paulsen (Page 72 of 937)

Thunder’s championship hopes depend on Russell Westbrook

Oklahoma City Thunder Russell Westbrook shoots a jump shot over New York Knicks Wilson Chandler in the second quarter at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 22, 2010. UPI/John Angelillo

The Thunder’s 90-87 loss to the Lakers on Sunday is a great example of why Russell Westbrook holds the championship keys for this young Oklahoma City team. He posted 22 points, six assists and six rebounds, but turned the ball over seven times, including two bad turnovers in the final minute when the Thunder were trying to complete a comeback.

He’s super-aggressive and supremely talented, but the bottom line is that he’s a scoring guard playing the point, and he has to learn to keep himself under control, especially when he’s attacking the rim and there are defenders in position to take the charge. Unfortunately, his turnovers are actually up this year (3.8 vs 3.3 last season) so it doesn’t look like the light is going to go on anytime soon. He’s actually tied with Rajon Rondo with the most turnovers per game this season.

Can the Thunder emerge from the West? I think they can, but they’re going to have to play better offensively than they did on Sunday. OKC took the Lakers to a Game 7 last year, and once they get Kendrick Perkins into the mix — he sat out of Sunday’s game with sprained knee — they’ll fare better against the Lakers’ big front line. Serge Ibaka looks more than capable of playing power forward, while James Harden and Nick Collison anchor a very capable bench.

Believe it or not — even with the best scorer in the league in Kevin Durant, the Thunder have trouble executing offensively. Westbrook is not a natural playmaker so when he’s penetrating he’s looking for his own shot. The Thunder will probably have to play Harden at the two down the stretch if Ibaka and Perkins are also on the floor. Otherwise, the defense will be able to focus on Durant and Westbrook.

If Westbrook can raise his game and increase his assist-to-turnover ratio from the current 2.2 to 2.8 or 3.0, the Thunder will be very, very dangerous come playoff time.

Which teams are the best bet to make the Final Four?

Let’s take an early look at Jeff Sagarin’s college basketball ratings. I’ve found that his Predictor is a solid way to pick winners when it’s time to fill out my March Madness bracket. Over the past four years, when a team has at least a two-point advantage in Predictor, they are 156-42 (78.8%). When the difference between two teams is less than two points, the favorite is 27-24 (52.9%) over the same span.

Here’s a look at Sagarin’s top 10 teams in terms of overall rating, which is “a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).”

As it stands, Ohio State, Kansas and Duke are favorites to make the Final Four because they are at least two-point Predictor favorites over everyone else in the field. This assumes that these three teams are in different regions, of course. The next highest team, Texas, would be a virtual toss-up with four teams: Pitt, Purdue, BYU and Washington.

You can see Sagarin’s full ratings here.

Currently, Joe Lunardi of ESPN has Duke, Ohio State, Texas and Pitt as the four #1 seeds, with Kansas as a #2 seed in Duke’s region. As it stands, Duke and Kansas would be a toss-up in the Southwest Regional Final.

Was Chris Bosh’s 1-for-18 night the worst ever?

Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh stands on the court during the second against the Chicago Bulls quarter at the United Center in Chicago on January 15, 2011. The Bulls win 99-96. UPI/Brian Kersey

Chris Bosh missed 17 of his 18 shot attempts last night in the Heat’s 93-89 loss in Chicago. His shooting performance was so bad that it got me wondering — historically speaking, just how bad was it?

Basketball-Reference has a ‘play finder’ that allows users to look up individual games or seasons based on a series of criteria. It only goes back to the 1986-87 season, but for our purposes, that’s probably far enough. I asked the site to generate a list of players that attempted 15 or more shots but had two or fewer makes, and list those results in order of ascending field goal percentage. The resulting list shows the very worst shooting nights over the last 25 years.

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