Author: John Paulsen (Page 690 of 937)

      Odom-for-Artest swap makes sense

      July 11, 2008 /

      The Sacramento Bee reported yesterday that, according to a “league source” (I love all the mystery, by the way), the Lakers contacted the Kings about Ron Artest.

      According to a league source, the Lakers already have contacted the Kings regarding Artest and are believed to be offering forward Lamar Odom. As of Tuesday evening, the Kings had not returned the call. They are expected to insist on forward Kenny Thomas and his $18 million of remaining salary (over two seasons) being included in that potential trade. Kings basketball president Geoff Petrie declined comment on whether the Lakers had called.

      “Believed to be offering”? This stuff cracks me up. They’re not reporting that the “source” said that the Lakers offered up Odom, they’re saying that the “source” only “believes” that they’re offering up Odom.

      Anyway, this rumor has been out there a while because it makes sense for both teams. The Finals proved that the Lakers need more toughness and Artest would bring that along with better defense and shooting from the small forward position. Odom is a talented player who is overdue for a pay cut, so if he meshes well with the Kings’ bevy of youngsters, Sacramento can re-sign him next summer. If he doesn’t, he might be February trade bait for a team looking to cut salary.

      The addition of Kenny Thomas’ contract makes sense because Artest’s low salary makes him more valuable than Odom at this point. The Lakers might as well take it on because they’ll save $6 million this season, which is almost enough to offset Thomas’ salary this year.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Rumors & Gossip

      Ric Bucher said something stupid today

      July 10, 2008 /

      So I’m watching SportsCenter this morning and they’re talking about all the NBA happenings, and the SC guy (I forget his name) asked Ric Bucher about the five-year, $72.5 million contract that Andrew Bogut signed.

      Bucher makes a good point that it’s probably a big number for Bogut – I estimated his value at $12.0 M – $12.5 M per season – and that the other GMs around the league are likely angry at John Hammond for skewing the pay scale for big men. He mentioned restricted free agents Emeka Okafor and Andris Biedrins as two guys that will probably look at the contract that Bogut signed and think they deserve something similar.

      I don’t have a problem with these points as they are completely valid (though neither Okafor or Biedrins have the polished low post game that Bogut has).

      The SC guy threw out the name “Jim McIlvaine” (referring to the absurd contract that McIlvaine signed after having accomplished nothing in the league) to which Bucher chuckled, and then replied, “More like Travis Knight.”

      Both Knight and McIlvaine are poster boys for overpaid big men in the NBA. McIlvaine made almost $28 million over a career in which he averaged 2.7 points and 3.1 rebounds. For his part, Knight posted 3.4 points and 3.1 rebounds while earning more than $18 million in his career.

      Both players were grossly overpaid, but neither player is even in the same league talent-wise as Andrew Bogut, who averaged 9.4 points and 7.0 rebounds as a rookie, 12.3 points and 8.8 rebounds in his sophomore season and 14.3 points and 9.7 rebounds in his third season. Does he deserve a contract that averages $14.5 million a year? Probably not. But does he deserve to be compared to Jim McIlvaine and Travis Knight? Hell no.

      Truth be told, the contract is about $2 million per season more than Bogut is worth, but small market teams that haven’t won recently usually have to overpay to keep their stars. Given the 16.3 points and 11.6 rebounds that Bogut averaged after the All-Star break, along with the improvement he’s made in blocking shots (from 0.5 bpg in 2006-07 to 1.7 bpg last season), as a Bucks fan I’m happy they locked him up.

      Update (8/8/08): Bogut’s base deal was for five years and $60 million. Hard-to-reach incentives bring the total possible value of the contract up to $72.5 million, so the $12 million per season estimate was right on the money. (Don’t worry, I won’t break my arm patting myself on the back. I know you were worried.)

      NBA

      Posey and Dooling are best of what’s left

      July 10, 2008 /

      As far as the unrestricted free agent market goes, James Posey and Keyon Dooling are the two players left that are likely to have a significant impact on a playoff-bound team.

      Posey has been courted by a number of teams, but most recently has become the focus of the Cavs. His play was instrumental in the Celtics’ title run. He’s a terrific, hard-nosed defender and can knock down the open three, so his game can fit just about anywhere. He and LeBron James play the same position (small forward), but either guy can swing to the power forward spot under certain circumstances and James plays a lot of off guard as well. He is 31 years old, so a three-year deal seems appropriate. He’s looking for the full mid-level, which starts around $5.5 M. Since their over the cap, that’s all that the Cavs can afford. I think that’s a little steep, but you can’t argue with what he did for the Celtics. He’s not the answer for Cleveland’s title hopes, but he could be a valuable piece down the line.

      Keyon Dooling is still available and I’m not sure why. His PER is 25th in the league, ahead of guys like Ray Felton, Stephon Marbury, Derek Fisher, Beno Udrih, Rafer Alston, Kirk Hinrich and Jamaal Tinsley, so he’s a borderline starting point guard in this league. His biggest flaw is that he doesn’t pass the ball very well – his career high in assists was 2.3 in his rookie season – so he’d best fit alongside a talented wing that handles and creates, like LeBron, Kobe, Dwyane Wade, etc. Plus, Dooling is cheap, and you can’t beat that.

      NBA, NBA Finals, Rumors & Gossip

      The Packers should bring back Brett Favre

      July 9, 2008 /

      I know Brett Favre’s “will he or won’t he” act is getting tiresome.

      I know it’s not fair to Aaron Rodgers.

      I know this might make the Packers worse off in two or three years.

      But if Brett Favre really wants to return to football, the Packers should take him back. There’s no other reasonable choice. Favre holds the keys. He can un-retire whenever he wants to. If/when he does, then the Packers either have to play him, trade him or release him, and those last two options aren’t really options.

      This is a guy who threw for 4155 yards and 28 touchdowns, and had a quarterback rating of 95.7, which was the sixth best in the league last season. If not for Tom Brady’s insane year, Favre probably would have been the front runner to win the MVP award, which would have been the fourth of his career. Despite the fact that his interception in overtime against the Giants ended the Packers season, Favre had the highest QB rating of any signal caller in the playoffs (99.0).

      Clearly, the guy can still play. I was absolutely stunned when he decided to hang ’em up with the Packers this close to the Super Bowl.

      He gives the Packers the best chance to win now. Rodgers may or may not be a good quarterback. Favre proved in 2007 that he’s still a great one. Life isn’t fair, and Rodgers hasn’t been dealt the best hand. If I’m Mike McCarthy, I just shrug my shoulders and say, “Them’s the breaks, kid. Keep your dobber up.”

      I don’t buy the secondhand reports that Green Bay GM Ted Thompson forced Favre out. Everything he said after the season implied that it was Favre’s decision, and with the way he played all year, there was no reason for Thompson to force him out. And there was no reason for Favre to allow himself to be forced out. The entire Packer Nation wanted him to return for another season and I’d bet that a majority would love to see #4 under center come September.

      But only if he’s wearing the green and gold.

      And, assuming he actually wants to play, that’s why the Packers have to take him back.

      Update: I changed my mind later that season when I found out that Favre actually unretired twice in the spring/summer of 2008.

      Fantasy Football, NFL, Rumors & Gossip, Super Bowl

      Bucks extend Andrew Bogut

      July 9, 2008 /

      I estimated Andrew Bogut’s value to be $12.0-$12.5 million per season. Apparently, he and the Bucks both think it’s more than that.

      The Bucks are making a serious commitment to center Andrew Bogut, who will sign a five-year extension of around $72.5 million, according to agent David Bauman.

      Bogut’s deal is one of the largest in franchise history, ranking with the six-year, $91 million deal signed by Michael Redd in the summer of 2005. Point guard Mo Williams signed a six-year, $51 million contract last summer, when he was an unrestricted free agent.

      So that’s $14.5 M a year for a guy that averaged 14.3 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocks last season. The contract looks better when his performance after the All-Star break (16.3 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks) is taken into account. Bogut is also one of the best passing big men in the game; he has a career average of 2.6 assists per game.

      The bottom line is that, at 23, he’s one of the best young big men in the game, but I still think the Bucks overspent a little. Unfortunately, that’s the case for most small-market teams – they have to overspend to keep their stars.

      The good news is that Bogut’s personality should mesh with the hard-nosed philosophy of new coach Scott Skiles. With the addition of Richard Jefferson and Joe Alexander, the Bucks will be an interesting team to watch this year.

      Update: The base salary of this contract is five-years, $60 million, with incentives (All-Star appearances, etc.) possibly taking the deal up to $72.5 million. The deal looks a lot better when it’s laid out in those terms. I estimated Bogut’s worth to be $12.0 M – $12.5 M, so I think the Bucks did pretty well here.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

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