Author: John Paulsen (Page 682 of 937)

In the world of fantasy football, Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) is a smart way to get good production out of your starting defensive slot without spending a middle round pick on a top tier defense on draft day. Since defenses are so difficult to predict year to year and since defensive success depends largely on the quality of the opponent, a savvy fantasy owner can pick two mediocre defenses very late in draft and, with their favorable combined schedule, get top tier production.

To that end, I used FootballGuys.com writer Clayton Gray’s strength of schedule data, which is fantasy points driven and has no bias of schedule. I eliminated the consensus top eight defenses by Average Draft Position (ADP) because those defenses – Chargers, Vikings, Cowboys, Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Bears and Colts – are going too early on draft day. I also eliminated the bottom seven defenses (via the FBG rankings) because it’s unlikely that owners are going to want to run the Falcons, Bengals, 49ers, Lions, Chiefs, Rams or Dolphins out there on a regular basis. Now there are a few teams on that list that could turn a good defensive year (I’m looking at you, San Francisco), but it’s wise to look elsewhere for a good DTBC.

That leaves 17 teams and 136 possible combinations. Total combined scores range from 117.4 (CLE/WAS) to 161.9 (NO/BUF), so the Saints and Bills have the best combined schedule. This makes them an attractive DTBC to acquire on draft day, though there’s another combination you should try to land first…

SEA/BUF

The Seahawks had the third most fantasy points last season, according to Antsports’ High Performance scoring system. The acquisitions of Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney (before last season) have given the team two effective, dynamic players and an easier schedule (as compared to 2007) bodes very well for the Seahawks.

The Bills acquired Marcus Stroud and middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is finally getting healthy. Buffalo’s schedule meshes very well with a number of teams (NO, GB, DEN, NYJ and CAR), so if you are unable to land the Seahawks, all is not lost.

So how do you draft with this strategy in mind? Later in the draft, when other fantasy owners start to pick the top defenses, don’t fall into the trap of going along with the run at the position. Instead, draft for depth at running back, wide receiver, quarterback and tight end. Then, around the 13th round, when the top seven or eight defenses are gone, start to think about the Seahawks. If they’re available, grab them, then follow it up with the Bills in the final round or two. If you miss out on Seattle, grab Green Bay. If you miss out on both, wait until the last few rounds and grab the Bills and the Saints. New Orleans was the #17 defense last year and the addition of LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Randall Gay and DT Sedrick Ellis should give the Saints a dangerous defense.

If you manage to get the Seahawks and Bills, this is how you would start them week to week: SEA, SEA, BUF, BUF, BUF, SEA, BUF, SEA, BUF, SEA, SEA, BUF, BUF, BUF, SEA, SEA

BUF/NO: BUF, BUF, BUF, NO, BUF, NO, BUF, NO, BUF, NO, NO, BUF, BUF, NO, NO, NO

BUF/GB: BUF, GB, BUF, BUF, BUF, GB, BUF, BUF, GB, GB, GB, BUF, BUF, BUF, BUF, GB