Author: John Paulsen (Page 640 of 937)

      Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 8

      October 24, 2008 /

      Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Donovan McNabb, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

      The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

      LOVE ‘EM

      QB: Jason Campbell (@ DET) has a tantalizing matchup with the Lions, who are 31st in the league in pass defense. The only worry here is that the Redskins sit on a lead after getting a couple of Clinton Portis touchdowns…Trent Edwards (@ MIA) has a nice matchup with a Miami defense that has yielded an average of 236 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game. Those sound like good expectations for Edwards, who has been very consistent this season…Jake Delhomme (vs. ARI) is probably in for a shootout against the Cardinals, who have given up an average of 220 yards and 2.0 pass TD per game…J.T. O’Sullivan (vs. SEA) has a good matchup at home against a struggling Seahawks defense that has yielded an average of 242 yards and 1.7 pass TD per game…Whoever starts for the Browns – be it Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn – they have a nice matchup against the Jags, who are 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed. They have also given up 1.8 pass TD per game…Looking for a scrub to start? Tyler Thigpen (@ NYJ) and Jeff Garcia (@ DAL) have decent matchups.

      RB: Even though he’s a little gimpy, get Willis McGahee (vs. OAK) in your lineups this week. He has a terrific matchup with a Raiders defense that is 24th against the rush, allowing 136 yards and 1.5 rush TD per game…Thomas Jones (vs. KC) plays a Chiefs rush defense that is dead last in the league. They are giving up a staggering 207 rush yards and 2.0 rush TD per game…Steve Slaton has a great matchup with the Bengals, who are 27th against the rush and have allowed 1.7 rush TD per game…You can start LenDale White and Chris Johnson (vs. IND) this week against the Colts, who are solid against the pass, but brutal against the rush (154 yards, 1.0 rush TD per game)…For the desperate, Cedric Benson appears to be the starter in Cincy, and he has a nice matchup with the Texans, who have yielded 1.8 rush TD per game.

      WR: DeSean Jackson (vs. ATL) was named a starter this week (even though Reggie Brown should be back) so look for him to have a nice game against the Falcons, who are 26th in the league against the pass…Steve Smith is an obvious start, but Muhsin Muhammad (@ ARI) should also be in fantasy lineups as he’s facing a shaky Arizona secondary…Chris Chambers should be back, and that hurts the value of Vincent Jackson, but you can probably start both players against the Saints, who are 21st in the league against the pass…Kevin Curtis (vs. ATL) is also a sneaky good start for the Eagles…Santana Moss is a must start against the Lions, but also think about starting Antwaan Randle El. Again, the only worry is that the Redskins sit on a lead…Josh Morgan and Isaac Bruce (vs. SEA) are capable fill ins if you are hurting at receiver. The Seahawks are 29th against the pass.

      LEAVE ‘EM

      QB: Matt Ryan (@ PHI) has had a nice season for a rookie, but I wouldn’t use him this week against the Eagles’ blitzing defense that is 10th in the league against the pass…Brad (a.k.a. “Bad”) Johnson faces a tough test at home against a Bucs defense that is playing good football…The Browns are actually quite good against the pass (7th in yards, just 0.8 pass TD per game), so I’d probably leave David Garrard on the bench this week despite his good play recently…If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel, be sure not to start Kerry Collins (vs. IND) or Dan Orlovsky (vs. WAS), as they both have tough matchups against pretty stingy secondaries.

      RB: Edgerrin James (vs. CAR) has a rough matchup with the Panthers, who have allowed just 0.4 rush TD per game. With Tim Hightower vulturing most of the goal line carries, Edge is a poor bet to score this week…Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden (@ BAL) should be benched this week against the Ravens, who have yielded a staggeringly low 67 yards rushing per game this season…Kevin Smith (vs. WAS) has looked better than Rudi Johnson, but neither guy should be in lineups this week against the 7th-ranked Redskins rush defense.

      WR: Derrick Mason (vs. OAK) has been pretty productive of late, especially in PPR leagues, but if you have a better option, you may want to use it as the Raiders secondary is improving. Nnamdi Asomugha held Jerricho Cotchery to just one catch for zero yards last week…I’d still start Calvin Johnson, but Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald should probably stay on the pine against a pretty good Redskins pass defense that has yielded just 192 pass yards and 1.0 TD per game…It’s tough to bench Marvin Harrison because he tore up a great Baltimore defense a couple of weeks ago, but this week he faces the 5th best pass defense in the league (179 pass yards, 0.2 pass TD per game).

      DTBWW

      Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire. Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

      I would grab NE, NYJ and WAS before either of these teams, but they aren’t available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues. This week’s picks:

      SF (vs. SEA)
      HOU (vs. CIN) (Yes, I’m going back to the Texans well again. Wish me luck.)

      Last week’s picks:

      Texans: 21 PA + 2 SK = 2 fantasy points
      Dolphins: 27 PA + 3 SK + 1 FR = 4 fantasy points

      (It was a rough week for DTBWW.)

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Which sport has the biggest home field advantage?

      October 23, 2008 /

      So I was sitting at my favorite sports bar (Rudy’s in Newport Beach), knocking down a pitcher or two with some teammates after a big rec league basketball win, and the subject of home court advantage came up. Each guy had his own take on what sport gave the home team the biggest advantage, and like most of these “sports bar” conversations, an idea for a column popped into my head. Why not take a look at each of the four “major” sports (NFL, NBA, MLB and the NHL) and see which one has the biggest home field/court/ice advantage?

      I wanted a decent sample size, but I also wanted the data to be relatively current, so I compiled the home wins and losses over the last three regular seasons for each league. (By the way, on the whole, Yahoo! Sports seems to have the best home/away “split” data, though for some reason its NHL data is incomplete. Luckily, NHL.com had what I needed.)

      Here’s a summary of the W/L data:

      The NFL, NHL and MLB are all very close (within a 1.7% range), while the NBA has by far the biggest home court win percentage with a stellar 59.8%. Why is this?

      The first thing that jumps to mind is the proximity of the fans. NFL, NHL and MLB are separated from the action by one thing or another, whether it’s distance in football and baseball or the protective glass in hockey. NBA fans are basically right on the court and are therefore more able (though not always willing) to change the course of a game. They can do it three different ways:

      1. NBA officials sometimes get caught up in the emotion of a lively home crowd.
      Due to the high number of possessions in basketball, officials are forced to make more decisions than any other sport, and are therefore more able to change the game’s outcome. (Just ask Tim Donaghy.) So NBA crowds can directly impact the outcome of a game.

      2. The proximity of the fans makes their reaction to non-calls more immediate.
      It seems like there are more “late whistles” during the course of a NBA game than there are “late flags” in the NFL. Since the fans are sitting closer, their negative reaction to a no-call gets to the official more quickly, which makes it more likely that the official will reconsider and blow his whistle.

      3. The proximity of the fans can affect the opposing players.
      As a former collegiate basketball player myself, most guys do a pretty good job of blocking that stuff out. Still, when you’re talking about taking a game-winning shot, there is probably more in-your-face noise and distraction for a basketball player than there is for any other sport.

      Travel also has a big impact on the NBA. In baseball, teams generally stay in a city for a two- to four-game series, while NBA teams are hitting a different city every (or every other) night. This doesn’t explain the difference between the NHL and NBA; both leagues play 82 games and have somewhat similar travel schedules.

      Monotony may also play a factor. While the NBA and NHL regular seasons are kind of a drag, every game in the NFL season holds significant importance. In football, the season is shorter, so there is more riding on each game, especially because the playoffs are less inclusive (than the NBA and NHL).

      The baseball season is certainly monotonous, so why don’t road teams lose focus? Well, the baseball season can certainly be a drag, but it’s more about the length and the sheer number of games. The stakes are raised over the second half of the season as there are only eight playoff spots up for grabs. Plus, much of the competitiveness of baseball rides on the pitchers, who usually get several days between starts and are therefore focused when they do pitch. Throw in the lack of parity in baseball and you have a lot of good clubs that can go win some games on the road.

      Also, there just aren’t as many “key moments” in baseball. In football or basketball, the crowd is going to get loud for each third down, free throw or when the home team goes on a scoring run. Other than the occasional big at-bat, baseball crowds are usually pretty quiet. The more laid back the crowd, the less impact it’s going to have on the game.

      All right, enough about win percentage. The other factor I wanted to look at was point differential. Here’s the breakdown:

      From a points per game perspective, NFL home teams have the biggest advantage. It works out to almost a 6% increase for the home team in terms of advantage in relation to total points per game. It’s unclear why this doesn’t translate to a bigger home win percentage, but the NFL is second in that category, so maybe it has more to do with the characteristics of the NBA than it does with the NFL.

      Regarding the NBA’s last place finish in this category, it sort of goes with the league’s reputation. They say that you don’t have to watch the first three quarters of a NBA game, because it will probably be close at some point in the fourth quarter. Momentum swings wildly in basketball, more wildly than in any other sport, and if a team gets complacent, its opponent will probably go on a run. So while a 3.25-point advantage is significant, it doesn’t seem like a lot given the total number of points scored per game. But it is.

      The more I dig into this, the more I want to see how home field/court/ice advantage translates to the playoffs. It seems like focus and travel issues would be eliminated, and we might get a clearer picture of which sport has the biggest home field advantage.

      But that’s another column for another time.

      MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL

      Rick Reilly plays fantasy football with Barack Obama

      October 23, 2008 /

      I’ve been meaning to post something about Rick Reilly’s new gig, but I just haven’t been able to find an angle that didn’t make me sound like a hater. Based on what I’ve read of his work, I’m not really sure how he got to where he is. I guess I should take notes, however, because the guy has my dream job.

      Last year, he signed a big deal with ESPN the Mag to become its back page columnist. I have read just about every one of those columns and have come away unimpressed.

      Now he has a piece where he describes flying to Dayton, Ohio to pick his weekly (salary cap) fantasy football team with none other than Barack Obama.

      Now, The Scores Report is apolitical, but let’s just say I would have jumped at this opportunity.

      It’s a good read, especially for those voters out there that like their Presidents to be sports fans.

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      2008 NBA Preview: #7 Phoenix Suns

      October 23, 2008 /

      Offseason Movement: The Suns signed Matt Barnes to a one-year contract. Barnes had a nice season for the Warriors two years ago (averaging 9.8 points and 4.6 rebounds), but fell out of favor in Golden State and saw his minutes cut. He’s a decent three-point shooter (37% in ’06-’07) and is otherwise an energy guy with a pretty good handle. The team drafted Robin Lopez, the more defensive-minded of the Lopez twins from Stanford. (You know, Sideshow Bob.) He may be the future at center once Shaq hangs ‘em up.
      Keep Your Eye On: Shaquille O’Neal
      Shaq’s scoring numbers have been in a freefall since the ’04-’05 season. At that point in his career, he was averaging 22.9 points and 10.4 rebounds. In 28 games with the Suns, he averaged 12.9 points and 10.6 boards. Clearly, Shaq can still rebound when he wants to. He shot 61% from the field with the Suns, but his blocks have slipped from 2.3 four seasons ago to 1.2 last season. If he is committed mentally and physically, there’s no reason that he can’t play 60-70 games at a 15/10 clip. If the Suns can get to the playoffs with everyone healthy, they’ll be a factor. If Shaq is out of shape and the knees start to bother him, the Suns season is pretty much over.
      The Big Question: Will trading away Marion ultimately pay off?
      GM Steve Kerr took a big risk last season when he traded Shawn Marion to the Heat for Shaq. Two years ago, the Suns were a couple of bench-clearing infractions away from upending the eventual-champion Spurs. The franchise could have kept that group together, but Marion was an offseason headache and Kerr ultimately decided to take a couple of aspirin last year. We’ll never know what would have happened had he kept that group together, but it did seem like the window was closing as the Marion drama affected the team’s chemistry.
      Outlook: Cautiously optimistic. If we’re talking about getting to the Finals, the Suns are one of those teams that needs everything to break the right way. The team should benefit from a half-season and a training camp with Shaq, and if he, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire can all stay relatively healthy, the team has the juice to go a long way in the West. But Nash is 34 and Shaq is 36, so chances are one will miss significant time, and that can’t overlap with the playoffs. The Suns have spent the last few years giving away most of their draft picks, so they are pretty much “all in” this season. If they don’t make a serious run, Kerr might decide to blow the team up and start over with Stoudemire as his centerpiece.

      Fantasy Basketball, NBA

      ESPN source says that Lute Olson will resign

      October 23, 2008 /

      A source told Dick Vitale that Arizona coach Lute Olson plans to resign…soon.

      Arizona’s Lute Olson is stepping down as the school’s men’s basketball coach, a source has told ESPN college basketball analyst Dick Vitale.

      Associate coach Mike Dunlap will take over the head coaching duties on an interim basis, the source told Vitale. The timing of Olson’s announcement is uncertain, Vitale reported later Thursday. Vitale reports that the move is imminent.

      Arizona spokesperson Tom Duddleston said Thursday morning that Olson hasn’t informed the administration that he is resigning. Duddleston said he went to his superiors and was told, “no way,” in response to the report.

      “We’re not making any announcement to that effect,” Duddleston said. “At this moment there is nothing going on.”

      Olson returned to the Arizona program after taking a year-long leave of absence, which the school said was not taken for health reasons.

      This is big news if it’s true. I wonder if Brandon Jennings’ decision to play in Europe has anything to do with it.

      College Basketball, Rumors & Gossip

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