I’ll be tweeting throughout both Final Four games (@FantasyShrink). Join the conversation!
I’ll be tweeting throughout both Final Four games (@FantasyShrink). Join the conversation!
Butler and VCU tip things off today at 6 PM ET, so while you wait, here is some opinion from around the internets. Also, be sure to check out our quick and dirty Final Four preview.
Carson Cunningham, Real Clear Sports: In Indiana we play basketball. It sounds cliché, but it’s true and you can try to quantify this. During Butler’s most recent tournament wins over Wisconsin and Florida, for instance, you could’ve noted that Indiana has about three times as many Division I basketball players as Wisconsin, even though the two states’ populations are nearly identical, or that Indiana colleges have produced 14 Final Four teams compared to the state of Florida’s 5, even though Florida has about three times as many people as Indiana. But basketball runs deeper in our veins than stats like this. When we watch Butler play basketball we’re reminded of the time we spent with our dads when we were 5 years old and of what our coaches taught us when we were 6 and 7. Whether it’s watching a dribble-drive to set up a backdoor, a sweet stroke from deep that draws nothing but net, or a lefty hook that represents thousands of hours of practice from Butler’s academic All-American Matt Howard, we can relate. Growing up, we practiced the same things for hours.
Gregg Doyel, CBS Sports: For VCU to continue its rampage toward the national championship, the Rams will have to do exactly what they’ve been doing. But their toughest test of the tournament — tougher even than what might await Monday — will be Butler. Because what VCU has done for five games is impose its will on the opponent. And nobody imposes squat on Butler. Butler is impervious to pressure, impervious to stress, impervious to whatever the other team is trying to do to it. Which means this game won’t just be a test of skill. It will be a test of will.
Pat Forde, ESPN: In its current 13-game winning streak, the Bulldogs’ games have averaged 62.2 possessions. That makes the contrast Saturday against Virginia Commonwealth rather stark. VCU has excelled this NCAA tournament at speeding up opponents, with its previous three games averaging 69.7 possessions. The Rams’ “Havoc” style was especially effective in the Southwest Regional final against Kansas, which was harassed into eight first-half turnovers and gave up a lot of open shots in transition as the Rams raced to a 14-point halftime lead. So the push and pull of pace will be paramount Saturday when the two teams hook up in the “Believe It or Not!” national semifinal.
Richard Justice, Houston Chronicle: In the most delicious matchup of this Final Four, Liggins today almost certainly will be asked to slow down the best player in the NCAA Tournament. Connecticut junior Kemba Walker is generously listed at 6-1, and that’s irrelevant anyway. When you watch him play, when you see him work for the ball, wear down defenders and create opportunities both for himself and others, his height becomes irrelevant. No matter what else Walker accomplishes in basketball — and he’s almost certain to be a top-10 pick in this summer’s NBA draft – it may not be more impressive than what’s he done these last few weeks, putting a team on his back and taking it from the middle of the pack in the Big East to the threshold of a national championship.
Eamonn Brennan, ESPN: Jeremy Lamb has become a star. There’s no getting around it: This is Kemba Walker’s team. In many ways, from Maui to Manhattan to Anaheim to Houston, this has been his season. But UConn’s presence in the Final Four has just as much to do with Lamb’s emergence as a bona-fide star in his own right. The UConn forward has gone from a lanky, raw freshman to a versatile, comprehensive scorer. He’s made 11 of his 15 3-pointers in UConn’s four NCAA tournament wins, and he’s complemented that outside attack with an array of drives, pull-ups and pretty mid-range floaters. Can Lamb keep this up? If he does, he makes UConn’s Walker-led attack even more dangerous, and that’s bad news for the other three members of this unlikely Final Four.
Ken Davis, NBC Sports: One day before Kentucky defeated North Carolina in the East Regional championship game, Kentucky coach John Calipari shared an interview podium with his starters. Calipari calls Knight one of the most conscientious, hard-working players he has ever been around. So, when he was asked to describe how Knight has the confidence to take the game-winning shots he has become known for in the NCAA Tournament, Calipari gave an answer that revealed much more about his young star. “He will be in the gym at 11 at night,” Calipari said. “Then he will be in the training room icing his knees or his legs at 6 in the morning. Academically, he got mad the other day when he got a 91. What class was it that you got that 91 on a test?” “Sociology,” Knight answered. “Still got an A, but he is mad,” Calipari said. “He’s conscientious. So he feels that he will make that shot. And more importantly, why I put the ball in his hands, he is not afraid to miss it. If you really want to be that guy, you have no fear. ‘If I miss this shot, I miss it. I am not afraid to miss this shot. Life will not end.’ I feel comfortable putting it in his hands because I know his work ethic.”
As the season winds down, I try to answer questions like these. Here’s my criteria:
1. The player has to shoot at least 38% from long range.
2. He must make at least 1.0 three-pointer per game played.
3. He has played in at least 50 games.
Here’s the alphabetical list of players that qualify: Arron Afflalo, Ray Allen, Ryan Anderson, Marco Belinelli, Mike Bibby, Chauncey Billups, Matt Bonner, Stephen Curry, Jared Dudley, Mike Dunleavy, Landry Fields, Channing Frye, Rudy Gay, Daniel Gibson, Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Eddie House, Richard Jefferson, James Jones, Kyle Korver, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, Wes Mathews, Jodie Meeks, Anthony Morrow, Steve Nash, Gary Neal, Jameer Nelson, Anthony Parker, J.J. Redick, Jason Richardson, Luke Ridnour, Brandon Rush, J.R. Smith, Deshawn Stevenson, Marcus Thornton, Hedo Turkoglu, Charlie Villanueva, Reggie Williams, Shawne Williams, Dorell Right and Nick Young.
Three-point accuracy is important, but so are makes. To me, it’s more impressive when a guy is hitting 2.0 threes per game at 39% than if he’s hitting 1.2 per game at a 41% clip. The more makes, the more the defense is keying on stopping that player from getting open looks, so that makes the makes (yep, makes the makes) that much more impressive.
Here’s a look at the chart. As always, click it to see a bigger version.
A few takeaways:
— What a year Ray Allen (45.2%, 2.2) is having. Not only did he break the three-point record, but he’s having his best year accuracy-wise if his career, all at the age of 35 years. As a Bucks fan, I was sad to see the team trade him away for Gary Payton, but I understood the reasoning behind it. They had the younger Michael Redd waiting in the wings. Now look at the two of them.
— Stephen Curry is proving that last year’s accuracy was no fluke. Whenever Ray Allen decides to retire, Curry is the odds on favorite to take the mantle of the best three-point shooter in the league.
— Best big man shooter? I guess we’d have to go with Matt Bonner, who is listed at 6’10” and is hitting 47.5% of his threes. Kevin Love, Channing Frye and Ryan Anderson are also impressive.
— Thirty-two of the 43 players are black. Eight are white Americans. Three are foreign-born (Turkoglu, Belinelli and Nash). I’m surprised there aren’t more foreign-born players on the list, though a few (Carlos Delfino, Omri Casspi, Sasha Vujacic) just missed the list.
— Of the 43 players, there are five power forwards, nine small forwards, 12 point guards and 17 shooting guards. Best shooter by position…PG: Curry, SG: Allen, SF: Jefferson and PF: Bonner. There are two Spurs on that list.
Like this post? Here are more statistical studies.
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Much of the attention this week has been devoted to Shaka Smart and Virginia Commonwealth, and deservedly so. But let’s take a moment to appreciate what Brad Stevens and the Butler Bulldogs have done over the last two seasons.
Last year, when Butler (a #5-seed) knocked off Syracuse and Kansas State to make the Final Four, there was a lot of Cinderella talk. But since #11-seed VCU made it to Houston this year, people are sleeping on the #8-seeded Bulldogs. They lost their best player (Gordon Hayward) and two other rotation players (Willie Veasley and Avery Jukes), replacing them with Andrew Smith, Khyle Marshall and Chase Stigall, none of whom average more than 24 minutes per game or 8.8 points per game. So this is essentially the same team as last year’s minus an NBA player (Hayward) who is getting healthy minutes off the Utah Jazz bench. And they still made the Final Four, upending three of the top four seeds in their region along the way.
Much of the credit goes to Stevens, who in early February wrangled a 14-9 team that was in a tailspin coming off three straight losses to UW-Milwaukee, Valparaiso and Youngstown State. At that point, the Bulldogs’ tourney hopes were on life support, and they needed to string some wins together to even have a shot to make the postseason. Over the next month, they rattled off nine-straight victories, including wins over Cleveland St. and UW-Milwaukee in the Horizon League Championship to earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament.
To fill the scoring void left by Hayward, Matt Howard stepped up his average from 11.6 to 16.7, while also bringing rebounding (7.7 per game), three point shooting (42.6%), along with unequaled grit and hustle. Howard is the team’s heart, but when they need a shot, they turn to Shelvin Mack, the team’s best offensive player. This kid has hit some huge shots over the last two seasons.
But the real reason that the Bulldogs have made a repeat appearance in the Final Four is that they’re back to playing championship caliber defense, which is something that they struggled with for most of the season. In four tournament games, they’re holding opponents to a stingy 41% shooting from the field, and just 30% from the three-point line. They’ll have to defend the three well if they hope to beat the Rams, who are hitting 44% from distance in the tourney.
Given their matchup with an #11-seed, the Bulldogs are in the unusual position of being the favorite. If Saturday’s game comes down to the final few possessions, one has to believe that Stevens and the Bulldogs have the necessary experience and moxie to pull out a win. A team’s personality generally reflects its coach, and Stevens is the model of poise on the sideline. His teams never seem to get rattled.
Two consecutive Final Four appearances by a mid-major program? That’s one heck of an accomplishment.
So let’s take a moment to appreciate Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs.
Lakers guard Steve Blake was driving to the basket, only to have Jason Terry shove him out of bounds. Matt Barnes tried to get into the mix and shoved Terry. Mavericks assistant coach Terry Stotts, who tried to restrain Barnes, was then shoved into a courtside spectator by Barnes, who kept screaming “get off of me.” When the dust settled, Terry, Blake, Barnes and Mavericks center Brendan Haywood were ejected. Minutes later the game had to be stopped when a spectator was kicked out of Staples for fighting and then another spectator tried to run onto the court, but was tackled by security before he could. In the final two minutes of the game, Lakers guard Shannon Brown was ejected when things got chippy between him and Mavericks forward Brian Cardinal.
If the Lakers aren’t able to catch the Spurs, there’s a good chance that these two teams will meet in the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs. If that’s the case, it looks like it will surely be a testy series.
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