What does a great non-conference record mean? It used to be the formula to get to the NCAA tournament. As Jim Valvano used to say when he was at North Carolina State. Win your non conference games (it didn’t matter what cream puffs you played) and then go 7-7 in conference play and you would go to heavan (NCAA tourney). Things have changed, however, and with the expansion of the number of teams and sizes of the conferences teams have to do a little better than .500. Just ask Jim Boeheim at Syracuse…
I rundown each conference and let you know who loaded their pre-conference schedules with cupcakes and how they will do in league play. Also, there are a number of coaches who are on the hot seat and need to have a good run in their respective leagues.
ACC
North Carolina has gotten off to a great start and is one of only 5 undefeated teams left. Injuries could bring them back to earth, but it is safe to assume that Roy Williams has enough talent for a deep NCAA run.
Clemson, Miami and Duke are all out of the gates with only one loss. That’s good news for Frank Haith as he will have to have a good finish in conference play to keep his job. All three teams had will be early departures in the tourney. The big surprise is Boston College. After a number of departures Al Skinner has the Eagles playing well and looking to make some noise in the league.
On the second tier you have Virginia. They have a player in Sean Singletary who can carry them. Look for them to be the surprise of the league.
Atlantic 10
Rhode Island and Dayton are both sailing along with only one loss. Both teams have beaten their Big East opposition and are well placed to get at large bids. UMass and Xavier are right behind with wins over Big !2 and Big 10 opponents respectively. This could be the year that the conference gets 5 teams in the NCAA tourney. Don’t sleep on Duqeusne. Ron Everhart has taken a combination of junior college and transfers to mold the best team the school has had in 30 years.
Two coaches on the hot seat are John Gianni at LaSalle (only one winning season) and Fran Dunphy at Temple. It has been close to 30 years since Temple has missed the NCAA tourney two years in a row. Also, Bobby Lutz at Charlotte needs a good conference finish to make the administration forget about his interviewing at South Alabama last year.
Big 12
Kansas and Texas look like the teams to beat. The Jayhawks have talent and experience and could get the monkey of Bill Self’s back. This is a final four team if it stays healthy. Texas is young, but DJ Augustin has picked up where Kevin Durrant left off and is one of the best guards in the college basketball.
Do you think Mark Turgeon is happy? Not wanting to go into rebuilding situation anymore, he inherited a Texas A & M team that has the second most talent in the league (next to Kansas). The surpirse of the league is the Baylor Bears. Scott Drew has the Bears back from oblivion and challenging for a bid. The other surprise is Nebraska. Doc Sadler has loaded up on cupcakes, but then pulled off a win over Oregon to pad the resume. I think the Bears will stay hot while the Cornhuskers will fade in conference play.
Two coaches on the hot seat. Bob Knight is always on the hot seat and therefore must win at a higher rate than most coaches. Sean Sutton needs to make the NCAA tourney or the Sutton era will end in Stillwater.
PAC-10
Tony Bennet has the Cougars of Washington State rolling again. The competition has not been that great, but they did beat Gonzaga. No matter, they will still continue to win once they hit league play. UCLA has weathered more injuries than any other team and still Bew Howland’s squad continues to win. When they get healthy watch out.
On the second tier is Stanford and Arizona State. Herb Sendek continues to work his magic. Do you think Wolfpack fans wish they had him back in Raleigh?
Coaches on the hot seat are Ben Braun and Jay John at Cal and Oregon State. John lost two assistants in the off season and continues to struggle at the once legendary program.
SEC
Who would have believed that the only two undefeated teams in the league would be Ole Miss and Vanderbuilt. Andy Kennedy has the Tide rolling. He has brought that toughness that he learned at Cincinnati under Bob Huggins. I’ll bet they wish they had him back right now. What more can you say about the job that Kevin Stallings has done with the Commodores. He has meshed in foreign players with the right American players to build a team that could make a deep run this year.
Tenn, Florida Georgia, Auburn and Arkansas all have one to three losses. Look for Tenn to stick and win with the leadership provided by Chris Lofton. Florida is young, but talented. They know how to win and will only get better. Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia will fade as their non-conference schedule didn’t prove a thing. That is not good news for Jeff Lebo who is on the hot seat at Auburn.
Two other coaches on the hot seat are John Brady and Billy Gillespie. I don’t think either coach will lose his job, but I would start worrying about the fans.
Big 10
Michigan State and Indiana have risen to the top, but Wisconsin is right behind them. After losing an exhibition game to Grand Valley State, the Spartans are off to their best start in twenty years. Indiana has added depth in the backcourt with AJ Ratliff returning. This should enable Kelvin Sampson to pressure a little bit more. Bo Ryan has the Badgers poised for another run at the conference title after upseting Texas on the road.
Tubby Smith has Minnesota playing well against lesser competition. Once conference play starts I think they will start to fold. However, the league is not as good as it has been and they could end up with only four bids this year. The sleeper is Purdue. Matt Painter is playing with a lot of young guys and building for next year. Right now that may come sooner that you think.
Coaches on the hot seat are Ed Dechellis at Penn State. That is if they care enough about basketball to make a change.
Big East–
Coaches on the hot seat run the gambit. Norm Roberts at St. John’s inherited a mess from Mike Jarvis, but has failed to make any serious headway. Jim Calhoun at UConn and Rick Pitino at Louisville will struggle in the league due to a lack of talent. These are two hall of fame coaches who will have to pull out evry trick in the book to have a chance at finishing in the upper half. Their assistant’s are the ones on the hot seat if they don’t deliver better players.
The younger generation of Big East coaches have their teams ready for a title run. Jamie Dixon has Pitt playing with an ingrained toughness, as does Tom Crean at Marquette. John Thompson at Georgetown and Jay Wright have their squads wining in a finesse way. And Mike Brey has Notre Dame plodding away to a 10-2 record.
Look for the Hoyas and Panthers to battle it out to the end. Villanova, Marquette, UConn, West Virginia and Notre Dame should all end up in the NCAA’s.