After a miserable showing in Dallas, losing two games to the Mavs, the Heat came home and found a way to prevail in three ‘must-win’ games, becoming the first team in the 2-3-2 format to win the middle three games at home. All Dallas had to do was take one game in Miami and they knew they’d have two opportunities to close out the series at home.
What kind of series odds could be had in Las Vegas when Dallas was up 13 with just under seven minutes to play in Game 3? Maybe one time out of twenty will a team come back from that deficit after looking so bad for almost three full games. The Mavs really squandered Game 3, looked hungover from the loss in Game 4, and ran into a brick wall named Dwayne Wade in Game 5.
So here we are, back in Dallas with the Mavs facing two elimination games. Will the team automatically play better because they’re at home? The oddsmakers think so. At this point, the Mavs are favored –130 in the series, which means a bettor would have to put down $130 on the Mavs to win $100. Conversely, the Heat are +110, which means that a bettor would win $110 on a $100 bet. So Vegas is saying that the odds are slightly in Dallas’ favor.
As bad as Dallas looked at times in Miami, they should have won Game 3 and could have won Game 5, while the Heat didn’t really have a chance to win either of the first two games. Both teams had to travel after playing on Sunday, and face a Tuesday/Thursday schedule this week, so I’m going to stick with my prediction and take the Mavs in seven. But Dallas isn’t going to win if they can’t get a handle on Dwayne Wade, who has scored 121 points in the last three games. He appears to be over the affects of the flu and he has shrugged off a sore knee. If he has another monster game and Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t match it, the Mavs will be in trouble.
