Cap Situation

Counting Andre Miller’s $8.7 M salary, the Nuggets are on the books for around $52 M next season, giving the team precious little cap space this summer. Carmelo Anthony, with his EPM of .575, is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Anthony elevated his game last season, averaging 26.5 points while upping his FG% from 43% to 48%, becoming one of the premier scorers in the league.

The talented front line of Anthony, Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin, hasn’t worked out as well as planned. Camby’s been terrific (EPM=.689, #8 in the league) when he’s been healthy, but the oft-injured center missed 26 games last season with finger, knee and back injuries. He’s pretty slight (230 lbs.) for a center, so maybe that’s why he gets dinged up so much. He has 4-years/$32 M remaining on his contract, which is still a decent deal even with the missed games.

Martin has been a disappointment for the Nuggets. After averaging 17 points and nine rebounds in his final season for the Nets, his averages dipped to 15/7 and 13/6 the last two seasons with the Nuggets. He’s still quite effective (.532) when he plays, but like Camby, he missed 26 games with a sore knee. To complicate matters, he’s got 4-years/$54 M remaining on his contract, and he was suspended during the playoffs over a dispute with head coach George Karl. Karl has since said he was willing to mend fences, but the two haven’t spoken since the Nuggets were eliminated from the first round of the playoffs.

Andre Miller has 3-years/$28 M remaining on his contract, and with an EPM of .489, that’s not a bad deal. He’s on the wrong side of 30, but his game doesn’t rely on speed, so he should continue to be effective for the remainder of his contract. The Nuggets don’t really have a shooting guard, so the team often plays Miller alongside Earl Boykins (.404, $2.9 M). It’s not ideal, but the two play pretty well together.

Ruben Patterson (.409) still has a year remaining on his contract, but will have a tough time justifying the $7.8 M he will make next season. After his contract comes off the books, the team will have lots of cap space next summer and they’ll need it to re-sign Anthony.

Offseason Blueprint

Martin is the big question mark this offseason. If he’s able to get back to his 17/9 form, it would be worthwhile to keep him. But one wonders if his relationship with Karl and the rest of the franchise is beyond repair. In that case, they’ll need to find a suitor for his $54 M contract. Rumor has it that the Knicks are interested. (Big surprise.) The Nuggets have liked Steve Francis for some time, so maybe a Martin for Francis swap would be a good idea. The salaries don’t exactly match, so the Nuggets would have to send another minor player (Eduardo Najera?) off in the deal.

Nene (Hilario) is a free agent this offseason, but it’s unclear how much the big Brazilian is worth since he missed the entire season with a knee injury. He’s a career 11/6 type, but he’s only 23 and should improve, so if he comes back strong, he’ll make whatever team signs him very happy. It might behoove the Nuggets to move Camby to power forward and run a re-signed Nene at center.

Reggie Evans is also a free agent. He’s second in the league in rebounds per minute (.361) and his EPM (.462) makes him worthy of mid-level (~$5 M) money. He’s not much of an offensive threat, so he’d work well in a starting lineup full of stars or in a bench role.

Denver does not have a first round draft pick this season. They traded it away to New Jersey in the Martin trade. It has changed hands a couple of times since then, and is now in the hands of the Knicks.

With a shot-to-assist ratio of 1.3, Andre Miller is a pass-first point guard, so a lineup of Miller, Francis, Anthony, Camby and Nene, might work well. Taking on Francis’ contract would mean more debt now, but Francis’ contract only goes another three years while Martin is signed for five. It all depends on how much the Nuggets want to spend in the short-term.

Notes:

Denver’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Marcus Camby 0.689 # 8
Carmelo Anthony 0.575 # 26
Kenyon Martin 0.532 # 47
Andre Miller 0.489 # 81
Reggie Evans 0.462 # 108
Ruben Patterson 0.409 # 169
Earl Boykins 0.404 # 175
Francisco Elson 0.389 # 200
Eduardo Najera 0.385 # 211
Greg Buckner 0.361 # 249
Dermarr Johnson 0.355 # 257
Howard Eisley 0.310 # 297

The team should try to build around Camby, Anthony and Miller, who are all good deals at their position. Adding Steve Francis, a healthy Nene and maybe another free agent (Evans or someone similar) could give the Nuggets a formidable lineup. With any luck, Denver will win their division again next season.