Before the World Series, ESPN.com hired a company to determine which team had the best probability of winning.
Unsurprisingly, the Rays came out on top.
We previously employed our Diamond Mind simulation software to project the results of the League Division and Championship Series. In the American League, we projected the Rays to easily defeat the White Sox, most likely in four games, and the Angels to defeat the Red Sox, but only if they could win Game 1. In the NLDS, our simulations projected the Phillies to defeat the Brewers, most likely in four games, and the Dodgers to upset the Cubs. The Phillies and Rays easily dispatched their opponents in four games, the Dodgers did indeed upset the favored Cubbies, and the Red Sox won that crucial opening game and went on to eliminate the Angels.
As we noted in our previous articles for ESPN.com, luck plays an even greater role in a short series than the regular season, which itself can be rather unpredictable. With that caveat in mind, the results of our simulations project the Tampa Bay Rays to continue their “Cinderella” run and defeat the Phillies. In fact, Tampa Bay won over 71 percent of our 2,000 series simulations, the largest winning margin of any postseason projection we’ve done for ESPN.com.
Not a good start there, Diamond Mind.
