Cap Situation

The Hornets have all kinds of cap room , having only committed to $31.5 M in salary next season. In fact, they have only one contract (Arvydas Macijauskas) that extends further than next year, unless the team decides to exercise its options on three different contracts.

One of those players is Chris Paul, and the team will surely extend his contract, keeping him with the club for three more years at a total cost of $11.6 M. Paul ran away with Rookie of the Year honors, making several teams, namely Atlanta, Portland and Utah – teams that had the opportunity to draft him – want to completely forget about the 2005 draft. His EPM of .590 was 21st in the league and 3rd amongst point guards, an amazing feat for a rookie. His shot to assist ratio (1.6) proves that he is more of a passer than a scorer, though he’s shown the ability to score when needed.

David West really benefited from the presence of Paul. In his third year, West had a breakout season, averaging 17 points and seven rebounds while shooting 51% from the floor. The Hornets should focus on building around Paul and West by finding players that compliment their considerable skills.

The team traded the disgruntled Jamaal Magloire to the Milwaukee Bucks for swingman Desmond Mason and a first round draft pick, which turned out to be the #15 selection. Mason hasn’t worked out as well as expected, providing only 11 points per game on some dismal shooting (40%). He’s in the last year of his contract, and at $8 M, his EPM (.264) just isn’t cutting it. Another $8 M is owed to P.J. Brown in the final year of his contract, and he’s just holding down the middle until the team can find someone better.

With all this cap space, it will be difficult not to pull the trigger on one or more free agents that might help the team get to the playoffs. The team’s locale (is it New Orleans or Oklahoma City?) might scare some free agents off, so the team might find better value if they wait until next summer to land a couple of big free agents.

Offseason Blueprint

The club will need make a decision on Speedy Claxton, who is a free agent this summer. His solid EPM of .424 makes him a very nice backup to Paul, though he’ll probably be able to find a starting gig elsewhere. If they can re-sign him for 4-years/$16-$18 M, it would be a good deal for the franchise.

Rasual Butler, another pending free agent, has a reputation of being a great shooter, but his accuracy (41%) and EPM (.298) don’t support that. The Hornets would be wise not to invest too much money in trying to re-sign him.

The team has needs at shooting guard, small forward and center. The team could make a big offer to Ben Wallace, but his age (32) and price would work against the Hornets’ plans. Nene is another option, but his health is up in the air. If the team is confident that he’ll be healthy next season, he should be a bargain.

A player on the rise is Jared Jeffries, who harassed LeBron James in the playoffs. With Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison getting most of the shots, Jeffries wasn’t asked to do much else, but the 6’11” swingman would be a nice fit with Paul and West. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Hornets could make an offer and hope that the Wizards don’t match it. Al Harrington would be a good fit, but does New Orleans want to meet his asking price? John Salmons (Philadelphia) is another (restricted) free agent swingman that could flourish if given more minutes.

The team has two draft picks, the aforementioned #15 pick along with the #12 pick, giving them the ammunition to move up if there is a player they love. Swingman Rodney Carney, center Patrick O’Bryant and shooting guard J.J. Redick would all make sense at #12 or a bit higher, though there are rumors that there is some bad blood between Redick and Paul from their days in the ACC. Still, Redick would create all sorts of room for Paul and West, while Paul would create all sorts of shots for Redick. Find a defensive-minded swingman and a decent center and you’ve got yourself a solid playoff team in two or three years.

Notes:

NO/Oklahoma City’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Chris Paul 0.590 # 21
David West 0.545 # 40
Chris Andersen 0.438 # 132
Speedy Claxton 0.424 # 146
Aaron Williams 0.412 # 161
Marc Jackson 0.411 # 166
P.J. Brown 0.410 # 167
Kirk Snyder 0.388 # 202
Linton Johnson 0.357 # 254
J.R. Smith 0.341 # 275
Rasual Butler 0.298 # 306
Jackson Vroman 0.266 # 326
Desmond Mason 0.264 # 330

Paul and West are clearly the best of the bunch. Claxton would be worth re-signing but not at more than $4-5 M a year. The rest of the roster needs a makeover.