Cap Situation

The Rockets’ cap situation isn’t dire, but it isn’t good either. The team is on the books for $54.5 M next season. The team’s short-term success is going to depend on the status of Tracy McGrady and his seemingly-chronic back injury. McGrady is set to make $80 M over the next four years. With an EPM of .557 (#33 in the league) he’s almost worth the money – if he plays a full season. Due to his back, McGrady only appeared in 47 games last season, putting the Rockets in a tough situation (and out of the playoffs).

The franchise needs to build around Yao Ming, who recently signed a five-year/$73 M contract extension. Yao was by far Houston’s best player, and at an EPM of .731 (second in the league) he’s well worth the price. Yao is the kind of center that can dominate for three quarters, but needs help in the fourth when the double teams start coming with more regularity. McGrady was acquired to fill that role, but he hasn’t been healthy with any kind of consistency.

Juwan Howard is still the team’s best power forward, but with an EPM of .398 and three years and $21 M remaining on his contract, he is overpaid. The Rockets signed Stromile Swift in the offseason, and while he’s reasonably efficient (EPM=.442), he only played 20 minutes per game. He needs to see more action to earn his salary.

Listed as a small forward, Chuck Hayes did a phenomenal job rebounding in the limited minutes he received. His EPM of .573 was #27 in the league, mostly due to his accuracy from the field (56%) and the .34 rebounds he cleared per minute. The team should definitely commit more minutes to Hayes next season.

That leaves the fairly dismal backcourt of Rafer Alston (EPM=.369, 38% from the field), Luther Head (.327, 40%) and Keith Bogans (.320, 39%). Yao is not going to be able to do work down low with this kind of shooting on the perimeter. Alston did average 12 points and seven assists, which isn’t bad considering the team only owes him $19 M over the next four seasons.

Offseason Blueprint

Other than starting a prayer chain for McGrady’s back, there isn’t much the Rockets can do with no cap space. One priority should be finding a way to sign Mike James, who has indicated that he wants to return to Houston. Some doubt that he’d sign for the mid-level exception, which will be around $5.4 M, but based on the strength of his comments, it’s worth a try. He’d be coming home and, with a little luck, might have a shot at a ring. However, it’s unclear if the franchise even wants James – they traded him away to Toronto last year for Alston. Regardless, if they can acquire James, they should then try to move Alston for a sharpshooter or package him with Howard or Swift for more help up front.

The Rockets do have the #8 pick and NBADraft.net projects them to take Marcus Williams, who would be a good fit and could take over in a few years when James retires or becomes ineffective. They are also in the market for a dynamic small forward (Rodney Carney), a good shooting guard (Brandon Roy or J.J. Redick) or a tough power forward (Shelden Williams). McGrady, when healthy, can play either shooting guard or small forward, so the team has some flexibility when building around him. Roy would be a coup at #8, but otherwise, I like the idea of Shelden Williams alongside Yao and Hayes up front, with James and McGrady in the backcourt. This would allow the team to trade some of its depth at power forward for an accurate shooter to come off the bench. Regardless, the team will be back in the playoffs with a good offseason and a healthy Tracy McGrady.

Notes:

Houston’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Yao Ming 0.731 # 2
Chuck Hayes 0.573 # 27
Tracy McGrady 0.557 # 33
Dikembe Mutombo 0.472 # 97
Stromile Swift 0.442 # 129
Juwan Howard 0.398 # 184
Rafer Alston 0.369 # 237
Luther Head 0.327 # 284
Keith Bogans 0.320 # 291
Richie Frahm 0.277 # 317
David Wesley 0.277 # 318
Jon Barry 0.265 # 328

The Rockets have two stars – Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady – and they just need to get on the court at the same time. Based on their EPMs, Chuck Hayes deserves more minutes as does Stromile Swift.