Cap Situation

With Michael Olowokandi’s $6 M salary coming off the books, the Celtics have committed to a payroll of $53.2 M next season. Paul Pierce is the team’s lone star, and with a EPM of .626 (15th best in the league), he’s worth the $15.1 M he’s set to make next season. He has the option of extending his contract through 2007-08, but may not if he doesn’t like the direction the franchise is headed.

But it appears that the Celtics are headed in the right direction. They have four young players – Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West and Ryan Gomes – who were all in the Top 150 in EPM last season. Throw in Tony Allen and Gerald Green, and the team has a nice nucleus of good, young players. And young players are cheap.

That’s not the case with the team’s most egregious contract – Raef LaFrentz. His contract is worth $10.9 M next season with a player option of two more years for a total of $24.5 M. Considering his mediocre EPM of .423, he is way overpaid; the team simply won’t have any serious cap flexibility until his contract is off the books.

At $36 M over the next three years, Wally Szczerbiak is not a good value, but his shooting touch (he’s a career 50% shooter) is a nice compliment to Pierce’s post up game. Vin Baker’s $5.3 M contract comes off the books after next season, giving the team some much needed cap room next summer.

Offseason Blueprint

It’s unlikely that anyone is going to take LaFrentz off the team’s hands, so GM Danny Ainge simply has to wait it out. Pierce is the wildcard in Boston, and the team needs to keep him happy to ensure that he sticks around for two more seasons.

The surprising thing about the Celtics’ young players is that the talent is spread equally among all positions. Perkins and Jefferson are inside players, Gomes and Green are best suited for small forward, and West and Allen are backcourt players. If these six are able to collectively step up their games next season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston fighting for a playoff spot next April.

The team has the #7 pick in this year’s draft, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Brandon Roy. I doubt Roy will be available at #7, but if he is, he’d be a steal and a great fit. Since the team is so balanced, they really could go any direction with this pick.

Danny Ainge has done a nice job since he’s taken over GM duties in Boston. He’s drafted well and cleared the way for that young talent to develop by jettisoning Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. The turnaround is apparent, but will Pierce leave after next season in his quest for a ring? It’s a lot easier to win a title when you have another superstar to play with and the Celtics just don’t have another star…yet. It’s possible that one of the young Celtics will develop into that role or maybe the franchise will land a star in this year’s draft.

Notes:

Boston’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Paul Pierce 0.626 # 15
Al Jefferson 0.536 # 42
Kendrick Perkins 0.500 # 73
Wally Szczerbiak 0.462 # 107
Delonte West 0.448 # 123
Ryan Gomes 0.424 # 148
Raef Lafrentz 0.423 # 149
Tony Allen 0.377 # 221
Gerald Green 0.374 # 225
Michael Olowokandi 0.354 # 260
Orien Greene 0.267 # 325
Brian Scalabrine 0.246 # 341

With seven players (four under 25 years of age) in the Top 150, there is reason for optimism in Beantown. One way or another, the team needs to find a complimentary star to play alongside Paul Pierce. If he demands a trade next season or decides not to exercise his player option next summer, it will drastically change the course of the franchise.