Here’s a list of the odds against each playoff team winning the NBA championship this year, courtesy of the World Sports Exchange:
BOSTON 8-5
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 4-1
SAN ANTONIO 15-2
DETROIT 15-2
PHOENIX 10-1
NEW ORLEANS 16-1
UTAH 18-1
DALLAS 20-1
ORLANDO 30-1
CLEVELAND 36-1
HOUSTON 36-1
DENVER 50-1
WASHINGTON 55-1
TORONTO 100-1
PHILADELPHIA 150-1
ATLANTA 150-1
So which team to take? I’m not much of a betting man, but I don’t remember the last time you could get 16-1 odds on the #2 seed in the West. In fact, I like the odds on New Orleans, Phoenix, Utah and Dallas – four teams with a legitimate shot to make the Finals. Utah probably the hottest team in the West and their odds are a little inflated after a poor late-season performance against the Spurs.
In the East, there doesn’t seem to be much value in the odds for Boston or Detroit. Orlando’s odds are a little tempting, just because they do have a decent shot at reaching the Finals, and if you already have them at 30-1, you can take their Western Conference opponent before the Finals to give yourself a nice payday no matter who wins.
As for the Celtics, there isn’t much sense in taking 8-5 odds right now. If they do make the Finals, they probably won’t be big favorites, so you’ll be able to get close to even money at that point – why risk it now?
ESPN’s numbers guy, John Hollinger, predicts a Celtics/Jazz matchup in the Finals, so those Utah odds are looking pretty solid. He has the Hornets at #4 and the Suns at #5, so it looks like there is some value in those middle teams out West.
