Kobe Bryant called his team “bipolar” and the Lakers have done nothing to disprove that diagnosis in these playoffs. They were pushed to a Game 7 by a Rockets team that had no business winning Game 4 or Game 6 without Yao Ming. When the Lakers are on their game, there aren’t too many teams in the league that can hang with them. When they are scatterbrained and unfocused, they lose. For Kobe and Co., it’s more of a question of chemistry and psychology than it is strategy, tactics or personnel. The Nuggets don’t have anyone that can stop (or even slow down) Kobe, so if the rest of the Lakers show up, they should win this series.
How do the Nuggets pull off an upset? First, they need Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony to get hot. Melo’s matchup with Trevor Ariza is important — Anthony needs to dominate. They need to find a way to score even when the Lakers are focused defensively, and that means they need to feed Nene the ball inside. He averaged 16 points and seven boards against Dallas, and needs to continue that fine play in the Conference Finals. It’s important that he keep Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom engaged defensively.
Off the Denver bench, J.R. Smith has been hot and he needs to stay hot. There isn’t anyone on the Laker bench that can stay with him, other than maybe Shannon Brown. If Sasha Vujacic tries his over-aggressive “humping” style defense, Smith is going to make short work of him. If Smith averages 18+ in this series, the Nuggets have a puncher’s chance of springing the upset. Conversely, the Denver bench really needs to make the Laker role players work for their points. Denver needs to force Kobe into taking 25 or 30 shots per game. If they do, it will mean that the triangle offense isn’t working very well.
The Lakers won the season series, 3-1, and with home court advantage, it’s no surprise that they are a 2:5 favorite in the series. These Nuggets won’t lay down, and they are playing some great basketball right now. If L.A. phones it in, especially at home, Denver could pounce.
