Every Monday, I’ll update these rankings based on the previous week’s events. One game has been played in each of the eight playoff series and we already know a lot more than we did before the weekend.
IN A BAD WAY
16. Pistons
15. Jazz
14. Hornets
These are three teams that have struggled this season against larger expectations and were hoping for a fresh start in the Playoffs, but lost by an average of 20 points. The Jazz seem most capable of putting up a fight, but they’re facing arguably the best team in the league with a superstar that is on a championship mission. Likewise, without Chauncey Billups, the Pistons are in no position to slow the Cavs down. The Hornets are the most perplexing team of this trio — they have arguably the best point guard in the league (Chris Paul) and a great power foward (David West), but they aren’t getting any help. (Of course, it doesn’t really help that West went 4 of 16 from the field in Game 1.) Paul and West have to play brilliantly if the Hornets are to upend the Nuggets.
CAN STILL RIGHT THE SHIP
13. Heat
12. Blazers
11. Spurs
10. Celtics
9. Magic
Orlando, Boston, San Antonio and Portland all lost Game 1 at home. Portland was blown out, which makes one wonder if Brandon Roy and Co. can match Houston’s defensive intensity. The Rockets have snatched home court from the Blazers and are now the clear favorite to win the series.
The Spurs look old and out of sorts — but the problem is their defense. Tony Parker vastly outplayed Jason Kidd, and San Antonio got 40 points from Michael Finley, Roger Mason and Drew Gooden. Normally, that would be enough. But the Spurs gave up 105 points to the Mavs, allowing Dallas to shoot almost 54% from the field. That’s not championship defense, folks. The Mavs got great play from J.J. Barea (13 points) and Brandon Bass (14 points), who made the difference off the Dallas bench.
The Magic and the Celtics seem like they can turn their respective series around, but Boston looks to be in more trouble. Without KG, the upstart Bulls can smell blood, and no offense to Paul Pierce, but Chicago might have the best player in the series in probable ROY Derrick Rose. He certainly played that way in Game 1, but it’s a long series.
As for the Heat, Dwyane Wade and Co. look overmatched against a balanced Hawks team. Atlanta beat the Celtics three times at home in their first round series last year, so they should be able to ride home court advantage to the semis.
LOOKING GOOD
8. Sixers
7. Mavs
6. Bulls
Here are three teams that won Game 1 on the road. The winner of the first game goes on to win 79% of all seven-game series, so there’s a good chance that we’ll see at least two of these teams in the next round. The Sixers seem to be more smoke-and-mirrors than good basketball, but they have a young and athletic lineup that can run on the Magic, who miss Jameer Nelson more than they’d like to admit. The Mavs and Bulls are taking advantage of the injuries to Manu Ginobili and KG, respectively.
ROAD BLOCKS
5. Hawks
4. Rockets
3. Nuggets
These are the three teams that look to be the biggest obstacles standing in the way of a Cavs/Lakers matchup in the Finals. Right now, it looks like L.A. has the tougher road with potential series against Houston and Denver looming. Both teams are playing well, but don’t look to have the talent to keep up with the Lakers. Meanwhile, with Nelson and KG sidelined, and the Magic and Celtics dropping Game 1s at home, there isn’t much standing between the Cavs and the Finals. They may get their toughest test in the semis if the Hawks advance. Atlanta gave Boston all they could handle last year and one could argue that the ’08 Celtics were better than the ’09 Cavs, at least from a balance standpoint.
DESTINED FOR THE FINALS
2. Cavs
1. Lakers
Given their advantage in the two regular season matchups, I’m sticking with the Lakers until someone changes my mind. L.A. looks to have the tougher road, but that may mean that they’ll be more mentally prepared if these two teams meet in the Finals. It’s going to be interesting to see if Houston and/or Denver can push the Lakers to six or seven games, or if anyone in the East can challenge LeBron and the Cavs.
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