Here we go again. For the second year in a row, the NLCS comes down to the top two teams in the NL Central. Houston gave it their all last year but fell short, which is a pity because I thought they would have given the Red Sox a much tougher fight than the Cardinals wound up giving them.
This time around, the ‘Stros are missing a couple of big bats (Beltran, Kent), but their pitching is much stronger thanks to a healthy Andy Pettite, who put up Cy Young caliber numbers. But the 18-inning marathon Game 4 had to wreak havoc on Phil Garner’s plans for the NLCS. Luckily for him, unlike the Angels, he gets two days to rest his players, not 12 hours.
The breakdown, piece by piece:
Starting pitching: Houston. Yes, the Cardinals have Chris Carpenter, the likely Cy Young winner, and Mark Mulder is no slouch, either. But they simply don’t touch Clemens, Pettite and Oswalt, no matter how you slice it. Having a lefty ace in Mulder is lost on an Astros team that’s almost exclusively right handed, and their one big bopper lefty, Lance Berkman, is a switch hitter.
Relief pitching: Houston. Brad Lidge makes grown men cry. Izzy is competent but absolutely hittable. St. Louis has good setup help, but they lost their best guy Al Reyes on the last day of the season. Tough luck.
Hitting: St. Louis. Albert, freaking, Pujols, kids. So what if Scott Rolen is down for the year, Jim Edmonds strikes out too much and Larry Walker is one race away from the glue factory? Pujols has a similar effect on the game as Barry Bonds. No one wants to face him with runners on base, and that winds up making pitchers do dumb things.
Manager: St. Louis. LaRussa’s the best strategist in baseball, period.
Defense/Intangibles: St. Louis. Houston has good fundamentals, but St. Louis runs clinics on the subject every time they play.
My pick: St. Louis in seven, just like last year. I’m secretly hoping I’m dead wrong about this, though. I’d love to see a Series between a team that’s never been to it and a team that hasn’t won it in almost a hundred years.
