Each week in the Pregame, I’ll suggest a few fantasy players to start and a few players to sit based on strength of schedule (SOS) or that player’s particular situation. Right now, I’m working off SOS data from last season, and while defenses do change from year to year, most tend to stay the same. As the season goes on, the SOS data will be updated and should provide an even better picture of what should happen each week.
I’m a strong advocate of always starting your studs, so I won’t be telling you about Shaun Alexander’s tough matchup or how Peyton Manning and company will light it up against a bad defense. Anyone can make those calls. I’ll be discussing marginal fantasy starters – guys that can start for you, but only under certain circumstances.
START
If you’ve got KURT WARNER on your roster, this is the week to start him. He’s healthy – which is a big plus – and he’s at home facing a porous 49er defense, which gave up a league-worst 277 passing yards and a second-worst 28 touchdowns last season…TRENT GREEN is also a good start. He faces a Cincinnati team that gave up an average of 223 yards per game last season. They did lead the league in picks, so if your league penalizes heavily for INTs, you may want to look elsewhere…This is a good week to start COREY DILLON. Laurence Maroney probably won’t play much and the Pats face a Buffalo team that allowed 138 ypg on the ground last season, along with a league-worst 22 rushing TDs. With the return of Takeo Spikes, the Bills’ rush defense should be improved, but Dillon is still a solid start…DESHAUN FOSTER is injury-prone, but he’s healthy this week and he faces the Falcons, who gave up 129 rushing ypg last season, along with 18 rushing TDs. Get some use out of Foster while you can…LEE EVANS looks like a nice start. He faces the Pats who had a lot of injuries last season, allowing 231 passing ypg. While the Pats should be improved, they do have concerns and Evans is poised for a breakout season.
SIT
If you have another option, BRETT FAVRE should probably ride the pine this week. The Bears defense allowed a league low 10 pass TDs last season while only yielding 180 yards per game through the air. Green Bay has serious offensive line issues and their receiver corps is unsettled, so it would be surprising if Favre came out and had a great game…If possible, DREW BREES should also be avoided. He’s on the road against a Browns team that was pretty good against the pass (179 ypg) last season…JULIUS JONES faces a tough Jacksonville defense that only allowed four rushing TDs last season. It’s not clear how Bill Parcells is going to split the load between he and Marion Barber, so the situation should be avoided if at all possible…This might not be the week to try out MATT JONES or ERNEST WILFORD in your lineup. Dallas was pretty good against the pass last season and was especially good at limiting opposing WRs.
INJURY UPDATE
STEVE SMITH tweaked his other hamstring, and is now listed as questionable for Week 1…CLINTON PORTIS still hasn’t practiced, but the Redskins don’t play until Monday night, so there’s still time for him to hit the field…BRAYLON EDWARDS won’t be starting but he will play Week 1…As previously reported, BEN ROETHLISBERGER will miss the first game due to an emergency appendectomy…DARRELL JACKSON and HINES WARD are expected to play in Week 1. Both players missed a significant part of the preseason with injuries, and are currently listed as “questionable”…JAMAL LEWIS and DERRICK MASON are also expected to play.