Which RBs were the most productive in 2010?

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

As I outlined in yesterday’s QB post, total points is not always the best way to judge a player’s season, especially when you’re trying to project how he’s going to play in the future. I prefer to look at per game numbers that are adjusted for strength of schedule. That way, I have a pretty good idea how each player would fare against neutral competition.

Here’s a look at the Top 50 RBs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.)

A few random thoughts:

— It might be a little surprising to see Darren McFadden at #2, but he was wickedly productive when he was healthy.

— Peyton Hillis had a great year, and did it against a relatively tough schedule. There are still concerns about his workload and potential timeshare, but if Hillis is the lead back and has an easier schedule in 2011, he should be a very solid RB2 at worst.

— Jamaal Charles was terrific in 2010, but he did it against a very easy schedule. It will be interesting to see what kind of draw he gets in 2011. The same goes for Steven Jackson, who had the easiest schedule of any fantasy RB last season.

— Part-timers who may go full-time (like LeGarrette Blount, Ryan Matthews and Jonathan Stewart) are tough to gauge with this method. One has to look at specific games where they received a certain number of carries and try to project that way.

— If Bill Belichick doesn’t make any changes to the pecking order in the backfield, both BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead could be starting-caliber RBs in most formats.

Here’s a look at the PPR numbers:

— LeSean McCoy might be undervalued in PPR leagues this fall. I got him at 1.06 in a Draftmaster league and that seems a little late for a soon-to-be 23 year-old who posted 19.9 points a game against a pretty tough schedule. This kid is explosive and he catches passes like they’re going out of style. I wouldn’t take him over Foster, but he might be my #2 since he plays in a more potent offense than Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice do.

— Some pundits left Matt Forte for dead, but Mike Martz used him as promised, and he started finding the endzone again. He looks like a late 1st/early 2nd round pick in 2011.

— Keep an eye out for Mike Goodson in PPR leagues if DeAngelo Williams does leave Carolina. Jonathan Stewart is not terribly adept at catching passes out of the backfield and Goodson could rack up Woodhead-like numbers as the Panthers abandon the run early and often next season.